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Braga vs Benfica Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 05 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Scheduled
Position#2
Record3-1
FormLLWWW
Points / game89.8
Allowed / game77.5
vs
Position#3
Record3-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game87.8
Allowed / game75.8
PortugalLPBRound 9· AMCO Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Braga v Benfica
05 Dec 2026
BRAG v BEN
upcoming
13 May 2026
BRAG79
BEN94
28 Dec 2025
BRAG63
BEN87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Braga win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Benfica win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BragaPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vitoria
#10
W
101-84
101
84
+17
H04/04
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
77-108
77
108
-31
A11/04
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
68-82
68
82
-14
H18/04
LPB
Ovarense
#4
W
74-67
74
67
+7
A25/04
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
72-90
72
90
-18
A09/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
79-94
79
94
-15
H13/05
LPB
Ovarense
#4
L
83-96
83
96
-13
A03/10
LPB
Portimonense
#11
W
105-71
105
71
+34
H11/10
LPB
Vitoria
#8
W
91-72
91
72
+19
H18/10
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
W
80-71
80
71
+9
A25/10
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
11-19
40-22
29-22
21-21
17-28
15-26
27-30
18-24
21-17
19-29
12-21
16-15
28-21
16-14
18-19
12-13
19-24
15-22
24-24
14-20
18-22
18-22
23-33
20-17
19-26
9-26
20-23
35-21
28-18
33-21
17-18
27-14
20-12
23-18
26-22
22-20
20-22
23-14
19-14
18-21
166.5Avg total
83.0Scored
83.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)89.877.5167.2+12.275%
Season at home (2)98.071.5169.5+26.5100%
Season away (2)81.583.5165.0-2.050%
Last 10 (10)83.083.5166.5-0.550%
Last 5 (5)87.680.8168.4+6.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)74.287.2161.3-13.017%
vs Similar ◀ (9)80.983.3164.2-2.433%
vs Weaker (9)89.172.8161.9+16.389%
This opponent (Benfica) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BenficaPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geneva Lions
#44
W
87-78
87
78
+9
H15/09
Champions League
Vechta
#18
L
88-98
88
98
-10
H17/09
Champions League
Sporting CP
#6
W
84-71
84
71
+13
H03/10
LPB
Bakken Bears
#16
W
91-81
91
81
+10
A07/10
FIBA Europe Cup
FC Porto
#1
L
86-93
86
93
-7
A11/10
LPB
Denizli Basket
#25
W
96-91
96
91
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Oliveirense
#5
W
92-67
92
67
+25
H17/10
LPB
BC Prievidza
#18
W
98-83
98
83
+15
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CA Queluz
#9
W
89-72
89
72
+17
A24/10
LPB
Geneva Lions
#24
L
90-93
90
93
-3
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-17
20-21
17-17
25-23
21-28
30-21
22-19
15-30
19-19
19-22
19-13
27-17
19-16
19-20
27-14
26-31
26-16
19-24
27-32
14-21
28-23
22-22
27-17
19-29
21-13
24-19
26-18
21-17
28-20
19-26
22-14
29-23
22-20
22-29
18-10
27-13
33-28
22-22
14-19
21-24
172.8Avg total
90.1Scored
82.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)87.875.8163.5+12.075%
Season at home (2)88.069.0157.0+19.0100%
Season away (2)87.582.5170.0+5.050%
Last 10 (10)90.182.7172.8+7.470%
Last 5 (5)93.081.2174.2+11.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (4)90.591.8182.2-1.225%
vs Weaker (25)92.478.3170.7+14.080%
This opponent (Braga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +4.2+4.2Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: +4.6+4.6Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: -0.4-0.4
BragaBenfica
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BragaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vitoria
#10
W
51-41
51
41
+10
H04/04
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
32-54
32
54
-22
A11/04
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
40-46
40
46
-6
H18/04
LPB
Ovarense
#4
W
44-35
44
35
+9
A25/04
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A09/05
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
36-44
36
44
-8
H13/05
LPB
Ovarense
#4
L
28-52
28
52
-24
A03/10
LPB
Portimonense
#11
W
61-39
61
39
+22
H11/10
LPB
Vitoria
#8
W
43-30
43
30
+13
H18/10
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A25/10
LPB
83.5Avg total
41.2Scored
42.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.042.081.0-3.043%-
Last 30 at home (16)38.940.179.0-1.244%-
Last 30 away (14)39.244.183.4-4.943%-
Last 10 (10)41.242.383.5-1.150%-
Last 5 (5)42.240.282.4+2.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)36.946.183.0-9.217%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)38.143.781.8-5.644%-
vs Weaker (9)42.834.977.7+7.978%-
This opponent (Benfica) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BenficaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geneva Lions
#44
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H15/09
Champions League
Vechta
#18
W
51-49
51
49
+2
H17/09
Champions League
Sporting CP
#6
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H03/10
LPB
Bakken Bears
#16
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A07/10
FIBA Europe Cup
FC Porto
#1
W
45-40
45
40
+5
A11/10
LPB
Denizli Basket
#25
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Oliveirense
#5
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H17/10
LPB
BC Prievidza
#18
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CA Queluz
#9
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A24/10
LPB
Geneva Lions
#24
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
88.4Avg total
45.8Scored
42.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.640.587.1+6.170%-
Last 30 at home (17)48.438.887.2+9.582%-
Last 30 away (13)44.342.686.9+1.754%-
Last 10 (10)45.842.688.4+3.280%-
Last 5 (5)48.244.492.6+3.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (4)49.546.295.8+3.2100%-
vs Weaker (25)46.239.685.8+6.664%-
This opponent (Braga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bragatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Braga: 81.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.1 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.818.4
50.0%
50.9%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.49.7
34.2%
31.4%29.1
🏀 Free throws21.915.8
72.1%
70.6%15.8
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Benficatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Benfica: 90.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.1 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.124.5
53.1%
50.9%49.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.87.1
31.1%
31.4%21.3
🏀 Free throws26.019.8
76.2%
70.6%19.8
They take 68.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Braga
WWWLLLWLLW
Benfica
LWWWWLWWLW
#2
League position
#3
+6.2
Net rating
+8.2
91.8
Offensive rating
96.8
85.6
Defensive rating
88.6
50.5%
Effective FG%
51.0%
48.6%
Opp. effective FG%
46.2%
18.0%
Turnover %
13.9%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.38
34.2%
3-point %
31.1%
72.2%
Assist %
54.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence91.8 · 96.8Defence85.6 · 88.6Shooting50.5% · 51.0%3-point %34.2% · 31.1%Ball care18.0% · 13.9%Free throws0.34 · 0.38Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Braga   ■ Benfica
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Braga wins
4
Benfica wins
DateGameScore
13/05/26Braga v Benfica79-94
09/05/26Benfica v Braga90-72
11/04/26Benfica v Braga108-77
28/12/25Braga v Benfica63-87
Bragalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/10/26ACD Povoa80-71
18/10/26HVitoria91-72
11/10/26HPortimonense105-71
03/10/26AOvarense83-96
13/05/26HBenfica79-94
09/05/26ABenfica72-90
25/04/26AOvarense74-67
18/04/26HFC Porto68-82
11/04/26ABenfica77-108
04/04/26HVitoria101-84
Benficalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/10/26AGeneva Lions90-93
24/10/26ACA Queluz89-72
21/10/26HBC Prievidza98-83
17/10/26HOliveirense92-67
14/10/26HDenizli Basket96-91
11/10/26AFC Porto86-93
07/10/26ABakken Bears91-81
03/10/26HSporting CP84-71
17/09/26HVechta88-98
15/09/26HGeneva Lions87-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Braga
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game89.898.081.5
Allowed / game77.571.583.5
Point differential+12.2+26.5-2.0
Avg total167.2169.5165.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Benfica
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game87.888.087.5
Allowed / game75.869.082.5
Point differential+12.0+19.0+5.0
Avg total163.5157.0170.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 FC Porto440100%97.888.0+9.8
2 Braga43175%89.877.5+12.2
3 Benfica43175%87.875.8+12.0
4 Ovarense43175%82.873.5+9.2
5 Oliveirense32167%87.384.7+2.7
6 Sporting CP42250%78.576.8+1.8
7 CD Povoa42250%74.272.8+1.5
8 Vitoria42250%75.082.0-7.0
9 CA Queluz31233%84.094.0-10.0
10 CAB Madeira41325%80.583.2-2.8
11 Portimonense4040%77.089.2-12.2
12 Esgueira4040%73.892.8-19.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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