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Caserta vs Pistoia Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 25 Apr 2027
Tip-off: 16:00
Scheduled
Position#13
Record2-3
FormLLLWW
Points / game80.8
Allowed / game81.2
vs
Position#9
Record3-3
FormLLWWW
Points / game78.2
Allowed / game69.8
ItalySerie A2Round 38· PalaMaggiò
Other2026-27
Meetings · Caserta v Pistoia
24 Oct 2016
KAS74
PIS65
06 Mar 2016
KAS88
PIS94
02 Nov 2014
KAS59
PIS63
12 Jan 2014
KAS80
PIS74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Caserta win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pistoia win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CasertaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Torino
#12
W
83-76
83
76
+7
H09/04
Lega A
Pesaro
#15
L
67-83
67
83
-16
A15/04
Lega A
Brindisi
#9
W
86-82
86
82
+4
H23/04
Lega A
Avellino
#3
L
75-79
75
79
-4
A30/04
Lega A
Sassari
#5
W
77-70
77
70
+7
H07/05
Lega A
Sebastiani Rieti
#8
L
73-81
73
81
-8
A27/09
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#7
L
81-83
81
83
-2
H04/10
Serie A2
Pesaro
#3
L
77-83
77
83
-6
A11/10
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#20
W
96-89
96
89
+7
H18/10
Serie A2
Mestre
#14
W
77-70
77
70
+7
H25/10
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-14
21-24
9-25
29-13
14-31
19-20
16-15
18-17
28-26
15-20
18-17
25-19
19-8
15-26
17-23
24-22
18-19
19-23
21-11
19-17
18-27
19-17
21-19
15-18
24-26
14-16
21-26
22-15
24-23
15-23
21-16
17-21
21-27
16-25
35-20
24-17
26-17
15-18
16-22
20-13
158.8Avg total
79.2Scored
79.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)80.881.2162.0-0.440%
Season at home (3)84.780.7165.3+4.067%
Season away (2)75.082.0157.0-7.00%
Last 10 (10)79.279.6158.8-0.450%
Last 5 (5)80.881.2162.0-0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)77.081.4158.4-4.423%
vs Similar (15)77.780.3158.0-2.540%
vs Weaker (2)86.579.5166.0+7.0100%
This opponent (Pistoia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PistoiaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
W
97-90
97
90
+7
A05/05
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
W
79-78
79
78
+1
H08/05
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
L
81-88 OT
81
88
-7
H10/05
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
W
80-78
80
78
+2
A13/05
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
62-63
62
63
-1
A27/09
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#4
L
77-84
77
84
-7
H04/10
Serie A2
Sebastiani Rieti
#8
L
70-78
70
78
-8
A11/10
Serie A2
Vigevano
#16
W
89-70
89
70
+19
H18/10
Serie A2
Cento
#17
W
96-52
96
52
+44
A21/10
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#20
W
75-72
75
72
+3
A25/10
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-15
24-26
24-21
23-28
15-16
24-31
20-18
20-13
20-19
15-19
24-14
16-23
17-25
24-18
23-18
16-17
16-19
18-18
15-11
13-15
20-30
23-19
20-18
14-17
23-24
15-21
12-12
20-21
21-18
27-15
21-20
20-17
24-10
25-13
23-20
24-9
21-20
15-21
14-12
25-19
155.9Avg total
80.6Scored
75.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)78.269.8148.0+8.350%
Season at home (2)83.077.0160.0+6.050%
Season away (4)75.866.2142.0+9.550%
Last 10 (10)80.675.3155.9+5.360%
Last 5 (5)81.471.2152.6+10.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)73.483.4156.9-10.014%
vs Similar (11)81.285.9167.1-4.736%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)81.471.2152.6+10.260%
This opponent (Caserta) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: -4.4-4.4Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: +3.2+3.2Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: +1.2+1.2
CasertaPistoia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CasertaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Torino
#12
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H09/04
Lega A
Pesaro
#15
L
33-51
33
51
-18
A15/04
Lega A
Brindisi
#9
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H23/04
Lega A
Avellino
#3
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A30/04
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
37-42
37
42
-5
H07/05
Lega A
Sebastiani Rieti
#8
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A27/09
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#7
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H04/10
Serie A2
Pesaro
#3
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A11/10
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#20
L
37-52
37
52
-15
H18/10
Serie A2
Mestre
#14
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H25/10
Serie A2
81.4Avg total
38.4Scored
43.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.740.978.6-3.223%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.040.279.2-1.231%-
Last 30 away (14)36.241.677.9-5.414%-
Last 10 (10)38.443.081.4-4.620%-
Last 5 (5)38.443.882.2-5.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)37.340.577.8-3.223%-
vs Similar (15)37.940.978.7-3.020%-
vs Weaker (2)39.043.582.5-4.550%-
This opponent (Pistoia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PistoiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
W
50-41
50
41
+9
A05/05
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H08/05
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H10/05
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A13/05
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A27/09
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#4
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H04/10
Serie A2
Sebastiani Rieti
#8
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A11/10
Serie A2
Vigevano
#16
W
48-33
48
33
+15
H18/10
Serie A2
Cento
#17
W
49-23
49
23
+26
A21/10
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#20
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A25/10
Serie A2
81.0Avg total
41.3Scored
39.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.442.081.4-2.727%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.940.980.7-1.043%-
Last 30 away (16)38.943.182.0-4.112%-
Last 10 (10)41.339.781.0+1.630%-
Last 5 (5)42.838.281.0+4.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)36.040.576.5-4.521%-
vs Similar (11)42.145.787.8-3.627%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)42.838.281.0+4.640%-
This opponent (Caserta) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Casertatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Caserta: 77.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.3 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.217.6
54.7%
51.7%35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.49.3
33.9%
34.8%27.9
🏀 Free throws19.513.9
71.3%
70.9%13.9
They take 59.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pistoiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pistoia: 76.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.3 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.217.9
50.9%
51.7%35.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.07.8
32.5%
34.8%23.4
🏀 Free throws22.116.9
76.5%
70.9%16.9
They take 59.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 25 Apr 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Caserta
WWLLLWLWLW
Pistoia
WWWLLLWLWW
#13
League position
#9
-1.8
Net rating
+13.6
103.9
Offensive rating
99.8
105.6
Defensive rating
86.2
52.9%
Effective FG%
50.0%
51.9%
Opp. effective FG%
49.2%
15.9%
Turnover %
10.2%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.37
33.9%
3-point %
32.5%
46.1%
Assist %
54.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence103.9 · 99.8Defence105.6 · 86.2Shooting52.9% · 50.0%3-point %33.9% · 32.5%Ball care15.9% · 10.2%Free throws0.33 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Caserta   ■ Pistoia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Caserta wins
6
Pistoia wins
DateGameScore
13/02/17Pistoia v Caserta77-64
24/10/16Caserta v Pistoia74-65
06/03/16Caserta v Pistoia88-94
15/11/15Pistoia v Caserta93-84 OT
15/02/15Pistoia v Caserta87-76
02/11/14Caserta v Pistoia59-63
11/05/14Pistoia v Caserta73-68
12/01/14Caserta v Pistoia80-74
Casertalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/10/26HMestre77-70
18/10/26HJuVi Cremona96-89
11/10/26APesaro77-83
04/10/26HFortitudo Bologna81-83
27/09/26ASebastiani Rieti73-81
07/05/17HSassari77-70
30/04/17AAvellino75-79
23/04/17HBrindisi86-82
15/04/17APesaro67-83
09/04/17HTorino83-76
Pistoialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/10/26AJuVi Cremona75-72
21/10/26ACento96-52
18/10/26HVigevano89-70
11/10/26ASebastiani Rieti70-78
04/10/26HBasket Torino77-84
27/09/26ALibertas Livorno62-63
13/05/26ARuvo Di Puglia80-78
10/05/26HRuvo Di Puglia81-88 OT
08/05/26HRuvo Di Puglia79-78
05/05/26ARuvo Di Puglia97-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Caserta
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW40%
HomeLWW67%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %40%67%0%
Points / game80.884.775.0
Allowed / game81.280.782.0
Point differential-0.4+4.0-7.0
Avg total162.0165.3157.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pistoia
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW50%
HomeLW50%
AwayLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game78.283.075.8
Allowed / game69.877.066.2
Point differential+8.3+6.0+9.5
Avg total148.0160.0142.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Libertas Livorno660100%81.767.0+14.7
2 Avellino Basket65183%81.073.5+7.5
3 Pesaro65183%83.276.5+6.7
4 Basket Torino54180%75.073.4+1.6
5 Rimini75271%82.671.0+11.6
6 Brindisi64267%78.873.8+5.0
7 Fortitudo Bologna64267%81.377.3+4.0
8 Sebastiani Rieti64267%75.376.5-1.2
9 Pistoia63350%78.269.8+8.3
10 Forli63350%83.379.5+3.8
11 Sassari63350%72.876.0-3.2
12 Cividale73443%70.774.4-3.7
13 Caserta52340%80.881.2-0.4
14 Mestre62433%73.578.5-5.0
15 Ruvo Di Puglia62433%79.284.3-5.2
16 Vigevano62433%77.285.3-8.2
17 Cento72529%73.683.6-10.0
18 Montecatini61517%72.084.2-12.2
19 Urania Milano71614%75.781.7-6.0
20 JuVi Cremona6060%74.881.5-6.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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