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Cearense vs Botafogo Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 20 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Projected 78-82
Projected total 160.3
Scheduled
Position#17
Record1-6
FormLLWLL
Points / game65.6
Allowed / game83.7
Vs
34%
66%
■ CEAR 34%■ BOTA 66%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
6.2/10
Above normal
4.3/10
Below normal
Position#14
Record2-4
FormLWLWL
Points / game76.7
Allowed / game83.0
BrazilNBB· Centro de Formacao Olimpica
Other2026-27
Meetings · Cearense v Botafogo
20 Nov 2026
CEAR v BOTA
upcoming
16 Jan 2026
CEAR86
BOTA82
27 Oct 2024
CEAR52
BOTA77
14 Feb 2024
CEAR84
BOTA75
06 Nov 2019
CEAR72
BOTA76
16 Nov 2018
CEAR65
BOTA54
01 Dec 2017
CEAR61
BOTA47
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Cearense host Botafogo in the NBB. Pythia makes Botafogo the favourite at 66% and projects 78-82, about 160 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Cearense are 1-6 this season (65.6 scored, 83.7 allowed a game), form LLWLL; Botafogo are 2-4 this season (76.7 scored, 83.0 allowed a game), form LWLWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cearense win
33.8%fair 2.96
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Botafogo win
66.2%fair 1.51
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:36 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CearenseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCearense
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
83-107
83
107
-24
76avg 64
H06/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
56-87
56
87
-31
45avg 64
A14/04
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
77-86
77
86
-9
64avg 64
A16/04
NBB
Osasco
#16
L
69-93
69
93
-24
55avg 64
H20/10
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
L
63-98
63
98
-35
40avg 64
H22/10
NBB
Sao Jose
#12
L
53-96
53
96
-43
no box
A02/11
NBB
Mogi
#2
L
78-89
78
89
-11
no box
A04/11
NBB
Paulistano
#13
W
65-58
65
58
+7
no box
H07/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#10
L
68-75
68
75
-7
no box
H09/11
NBB
Minas
#1
L
63-77
63
77
-14
no box
A14/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-23
18-36
22-25
23-23
9-25
21-24
15-24
11-14
23-20
19-23
23-18
12-25
17-32
23-22
13-18
16-21
15-24
17-22
18-26
13-26
11-27
12-31
15-24
15-14
21-11
21-22
19-26
17-30
18-15
10-14
25-16
12-13
16-19
17-15
17-23
18-18
18-17
11-23
16-14
18-23
154.1Avg total
67.5Scored
86.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)65.683.7149.3-18.114%
Season at home (4)66.281.0147.2-14.825%
Season away (3)64.787.3152.0-22.70%
Last 10 (10)67.586.6154.1-19.110%
Last 5 (5)65.479.0144.4-13.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)70.789.2159.9-18.48%
vs Similar (4)78.077.2155.2+0.850%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Botafogo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BotafogoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBotafogo
Date
Competition
Vasco
#20
L
86-104
86
104
-18
80avg 66
A18/04
NBB
Franca
#1
L
68-94
68
94
-26
59avg 66
A22/04
NBB
Franca
#1
L
79-89
79
89
-10
70avg 66
H25/04
NBB
Franca
#1
L
78-82
78
82
-4
71avg 66
H28/04
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
71-81
71
81
-10
65avg 66
A20/10
NBB
Pato
#15
L
88-89
88
89
-1
82avg 66
A24/10
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
84-82
84
82
+2
81avg 66
H28/10
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#7
L
80-87
80
87
-7
no box
H30/10
NBB
Brasilia
#8
W
77-76
77
76
+1
no box
A02/11
NBB
Franca
#6
L
60-83
60
83
-23
no box
H12/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-24
28-22
13-29
20-29
17-37
16-21
20-17
15-19
35-23
18-26
15-21
11-19
23-11
21-29
14-22
20-20
14-22
22-27
21-20
14-12
26-22
22-16
13-27
27-24
22-24
14-16
25-21
23-21
22-26
24-18
17-19
17-24
16-22
20-14
23-17
18-23
16-21
19-14
9-24
16-24
163.8Avg total
77.1Scored
86.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)76.783.0159.7-6.333%
Season at home (3)74.784.0158.7-9.333%
Season away (3)78.782.0160.7-3.333%
Last 10 (10)77.186.7163.8-9.620%
Last 5 (5)77.883.4161.2-5.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (22)73.183.4156.5-10.327%
vs Similar (7)81.688.6170.1-7.029%
vs Weaker ◀ (1)84.082.0166.0+2.0100%
This opponent (Cearense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152
Over 152
69.0%
Under 152
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157
Over 157
57.3%
Under 157
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 162
Over 162
45.0%
Under 162
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Cearense total 76
Over 76
56.6%
Under 76
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cearense total 80
Over 80
40.7%
Under 80
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cearense total 84
Over 84
26.4%
Under 84
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Botafogo total 73.5
Over 73.5
81.1%
Under 73.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Botafogo total 77.5
Over 77.5
68.7%
Under 77.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Botafogo total 81.5
Over 81.5
53.8%
Under 81.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Cearense -3
CEAR -3
25.7%
BOTA +3
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
CEAR
No market prices yet.
BOTA
No market prices yet.
Spread Cearense 0
CEAR 0
33.8%
BOTA 0
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
CEAR
No market prices yet.
BOTA
No market prices yet.
Spread Cearense +3
CEAR +3
42.2%
BOTA -3
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
CEAR
No market prices yet.
BOTA
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -4.5-4.5Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: -6.3-6.3Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: -3.1-3.1Q3: -4.7-4.7Q4Q4: -5.2-5.2Q4: -3.4-3.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -4.5-4.5Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: -6.3-6.3Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: -3.1-3.1Q3: -4.7-4.7Q4Q4: -5.2-5.2Q4: -3.4-3.4
CearenseBotafogo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CearenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
38-59
38
59
-21
H06/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
30-49
30
49
-19
A14/04
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A16/04
NBB
Osasco
#16
L
40-54
40
54
-14
H20/10
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
L
32-46
32
46
-14
H22/10
NBB
Sao Jose
#12
L
23-58
23
58
-35
A02/11
NBB
Mogi
#2
W
42-33
42
33
+9
A04/11
NBB
Paulistano
#13
L
28-29
28
29
-1
H07/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#10
L
33-34
33
34
-1
H09/11
NBB
Minas
#1
L
29-40
29
40
-11
A14/11
NBB
78.2Avg total
33.7Scored
44.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.443.879.2-8.323%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.641.977.5-6.327%-
Last 30 away (15)35.345.780.9-10.420%-
Last 10 (10)33.744.578.2-10.810%-
Last 5 (5)31.038.869.8-7.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)34.944.679.5-9.719%-
vs Similar (4)38.838.277.0+0.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Botafogo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BotafogoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vasco
#20
W
53-46
53
46
+7
A18/04
NBB
Franca
#1
L
33-58
33
58
-25
A22/04
NBB
Franca
#1
W
53-49
53
49
+4
H25/04
NBB
Franca
#1
W
44-40
44
40
+4
H28/04
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
36-49
36
49
-13
A20/10
NBB
Pato
#15
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A24/10
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H28/10
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#7
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H30/10
NBB
Brasilia
#8
D
36-36
36
36
+0
A02/11
NBB
Franca
#6
D
35-35
35
35
+0
H12/11
NBB
85.5Avg total
42.0Scored
43.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.841.781.6-1.937%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.941.682.6-0.744%-
Last 30 away (14)38.641.980.4-3.329%-
Last 10 (10)42.043.585.5-1.550%-
Last 5 (5)40.238.678.8+1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (22)38.940.979.8-2.036%-
vs Similar (7)43.344.788.0-1.443%-
vs Weaker ◀ (1)36.040.076.0-4.00%-
This opponent (Cearense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Cearensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cearense: 74.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.718.7
44.8%
49.8%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.07.0
29.2%
31.6%21.0
🏀 Free throws24.316.1
66.3%
71.3%16.1
They take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Botafogotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Botafogo: 79.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.4 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.7 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.321.7
52.5%
49.8%43.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.78.1
31.5%
31.6%24.3
🏀 Free throws16.911.7
69.2%
71.3%11.7
They take 67.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cearense
LLWLLLLLLL
Botafogo
LWLWLLLLLL
#17
League position
#14
-21.2
Net rating
-6.7
82.4
Offensive rating
91.9
103.6
Defensive rating
98.6
44.4%
Effective FG%
50.5%
58.5%
Opp. effective FG%
56.6%
16.2%
Turnover %
14.8%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.25
29.2%
3-point %
31.5%
54.1%
Assist %
66.8%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence82.4 · 91.9Defence103.6 · 98.6Shooting44.4% · 50.5%3-point %29.2% · 31.5%Ball care16.2% · 14.8%Free throws0.37 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)10% · 20%
■ Cearense   ■ Botafogo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Cearense wins
5
Botafogo wins
DateGameScore
16/01/26Cearense v Botafogo86-82
20/10/25Botafogo v Cearense80-84
20/01/25Botafogo v Cearense74-83
27/10/24Cearense v Botafogo52-77
14/02/24Cearense v Botafogo84-75
18/12/23Botafogo v Cearense90-86
01/02/20Botafogo v Cearense86-72
07/11/19Cearense v Botafogo72-76
22/01/19Botafogo v Cearense78-69
16/11/18Cearense v Botafogo65-54
Cearenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AMinas63-77
09/11/26HCorinthians Paulista68-75
07/11/26HPaulistano65-58
04/11/26AMogi78-89
02/11/26ASao Jose53-96
22/10/26HPinheiros63-98
20/10/26HOsasco69-93
16/04/26ACruzeiro77-86
14/04/26AMinas56-87
06/04/26HCaxias do Sul83-107
Botafogolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HFranca60-83
02/11/26ABrasilia77-76
30/10/26HUniao Corinthians80-87
28/10/26HCaxias do Sul84-82
24/10/26APato88-89
20/10/26AFlamengo71-81
28/04/26HFranca78-82
25/04/26HFranca79-89
22/04/26AFranca68-94
18/04/26AVasco86-104

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cearense
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL14%
HomeLLWL25%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %14%25%0%
Points / game65.666.264.7
Allowed / game83.781.087.3
Point differential-18.1-14.8-22.7
Avg total149.3147.2152.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Botafogo
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL33%
HomeWLL33%
AwayLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %33%33%33%
Points / game76.774.778.7
Allowed / game83.084.082.0
Point differential-6.3-9.3-3.3
Avg total159.7158.7160.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas880100%85.165.4+19.8
2 Mogi76186%83.173.9+9.3
3 Pinheiros86275%85.273.1+12.1
4 Flamengo75271%80.973.4+7.4
5 Unifacisa75271%79.475.1+4.3
6 Franca85362%78.971.6+7.2
7 Uniao Corinthians74357%72.374.7-2.4
8 Brasilia84450%80.679.8+0.9
9 Cruzeiro63350%76.278.8-2.7
10 Corinthians Paulista73443%80.079.0+1.0
11 Bauru73443%76.777.7-1.0
12 Sao Jose73443%80.381.7-1.4
13 Paulistano73443%69.673.9-4.3
14 Botafogo62433%76.783.0-6.3
15 Pato82625%72.681.5-8.9
16 Osasco61517%77.886.8-9.0
17 Cearense71614%65.683.7-18.1
18 Caxias do Sul7070%64.779.6-14.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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