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Cearense vs Botafogo Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 16 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 86-82
26-22 24-21 15-20 21-19
Position#19
Record4-17
FormLLLLL
Points / game77.6
Allowed / game88.2
vs
Position#16
Record3-17
FormLLLLL
Points / game70.9
Allowed / game83.3
BrazilNBB· Centro de Formacao Olimpica
Other2025-26
Meetings · Cearense v Botafogo
20 Nov 2026
CEAR v BOTA
upcoming
16 Jan 2026
CEAR86
BOTA82
27 Oct 2024
CEAR52
BOTA77
14 Feb 2024
CEAR84
BOTA75
06 Nov 2019
CEAR72
BOTA76
16 Nov 2018
CEAR65
BOTA54
01 Dec 2017
CEAR61
BOTA47
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cearense winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Botafogo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CearenseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCearense
Date
Competition
Rio Claro
#15
L
95-98
95
98
-3
86avg 68
A06/12
NBB
Osasco
#18
W
89-82
89
82
+7
81avg 68
H09/12
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
77-100
77
100
-23
64avg 68
H15/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
61-108
61
108
-47
74avg 68
H18/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
L
62-95
62
95
-33
50avg 68
A21/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
52-68
52
68
-16
39avg 68
A23/12
NBB
Minas
#3
L
81-99
81
99
-18
64avg 68
H27/12
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
78-86
78
86
-8
71avg 68
H29/12
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
81-88
81
88
-7
68avg 68
H10/01
NBB
Vasco
#20
L
73-78
73
78
-5
71avg 68
H13/01
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-26
29-27
19-31
20-14
19-14
23-25
22-22
25-21
12-32
21-14
21-32
23-22
15-29
19-38
14-23
13-18
21-34
12-20
16-24
13-17
19-18
7-20
12-15
14-15
18-24
28-16
18-33
17-26
24-19
12-21
19-16
23-30
11-21
20-23
27-20
23-24
20-10
18-25
24-14
11-29
165.1Avg total
74.9Scored
90.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)77.688.2165.8-10.619%
Season at home (12)78.088.2166.2-10.217%
Season away (9)77.188.1165.2-11.022%
Last 10 (10)74.990.2165.1-15.310%
Last 5 (5)73.083.8156.8-10.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (23)76.086.9162.9-10.917%
vs Similar ◀ (7)79.378.6157.9+0.757%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Botafogo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BotafogoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBotafogo
Date
Competition
Rio Claro
#15
W
74-61
74
61
+13
71avg 63
H20/11
NBB
Osasco
#18
L
70-79
70
79
-9
59avg 63
A02/12
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
77-101
77
101
-24
67avg 63
A04/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
75-80
75
80
-5
68avg 63
H08/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
L
61-84
61
84
-23
50avg 63
H13/12
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
65-89
65
89
-24
45avg 63
A16/12
NBB
Minas
#3
L
88-95
88
95
-7
79avg 63
A18/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
64-77
64
77
-13
50avg 63
A27/12
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
71-104
71
104
-33
63avg 63
A29/12
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
68-77
68
77
-9
58avg 63
A13/01
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-23
13-7
24-17
18-14
15-23
20-21
22-16
13-19
19-28
20-28
21-22
17-23
17-20
20-20
22-19
16-21
15-21
18-20
16-26
12-17
19-18
18-22
14-19
14-30
23-28
17-24
22-14
26-29
25-21
16-25
13-20
10-11
21-16
13-32
20-27
17-29
24-21
8-23
17-12
19-21
156.0Avg total
71.3Scored
84.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)70.983.3154.2-12.415%
Season at home (8)74.978.4153.2-3.538%
Season away (12)68.286.7154.9-18.40%
Last 10 (10)71.384.7156.0-13.410%
Last 5 (5)71.288.4159.6-17.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (25)70.785.3156.0-14.616%
vs Similar ◀ (5)78.275.0153.2+3.260%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -4.1-4.1Q1: -2.2-2.2Q2Q2: -4.0-4.0Q2: -5.9-5.9Q3Q3: -3.8-3.8Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: -3.4-3.4Q4: -5.2-5.2
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -4.1-4.1Q1: -2.2-2.2Q2Q2: -4.0-4.0Q2: -5.9-5.9Q3Q3: -3.8-3.8Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: -3.4-3.4Q4: -5.2-5.2
CearenseBotafogo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CearenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rio Claro
#15
W
56-53
56
53
+3
A06/12
NBB
Osasco
#18
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H09/12
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
33-46
33
46
-13
H15/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
34-67
34
67
-33
H18/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
L
33-54
33
54
-21
A21/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
26-38
26
38
-12
A23/12
NBB
Minas
#3
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H27/12
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H29/12
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
31-44
31
44
-13
H10/01
NBB
Vasco
#20
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H13/01
NBB
83.1Avg total
37.5Scored
45.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.242.580.7-4.333%-
Last 30 at home (17)37.942.180.0-4.129%-
Last 30 away (13)38.643.181.7-4.538%-
Last 10 (10)37.545.683.1-8.140%-
Last 5 (5)35.439.474.8-4.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (23)38.743.181.9-4.430%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)36.640.477.0-3.943%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Botafogo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BotafogoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rio Claro
#15
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H20/11
NBB
Osasco
#18
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A02/12
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
39-56
39
56
-17
A04/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H08/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
L
33-41
33
41
-8
H13/12
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
37-40
37
40
-3
A16/12
NBB
Minas
#3
L
40-52
40
52
-12
A18/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A27/12
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A29/12
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
32-44
32
44
-12
A13/01
NBB
80.1Avg total
36.0Scored
44.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.643.079.6-6.327%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.340.781.0-0.446%-
Last 30 away (17)33.844.778.5-10.912%-
Last 10 (10)36.044.180.1-8.110%-
Last 5 (5)36.846.082.8-9.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (25)35.944.080.0-8.120%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)40.237.677.8+2.660%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Cearensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cearense: 74.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.5 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.919.2
45.8%
52.2%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.67.3
29.7%
32.5%21.9
🏀 Free throws19.614.5
74.0%
72.8%14.5
They take 66.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Botafogotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Botafogo: 70.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.917.9
46.0%
52.2%35.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.07.3
28.1%
32.5%21.9
🏀 Free throws18.712.4
66.3%
72.8%12.4
They take 64.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cearense
LLLLLLLLWL
Botafogo
LLLLLLLLLW
#19
League position
#16
-17.9
Net rating
-18.6
92.8
Offensive rating
93.2
110.7
Defensive rating
111.8
45.3%
Effective FG%
44.5%
56.2%
Opp. effective FG%
55.6%
18.3%
Turnover %
17.3%
26.7%
Off. rebound %
29.6%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.29
29.7%
3-point %
28.1%
55.8%
Assist %
61.9%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence92.8 · 93.2Defence110.7 · 111.8Shooting45.3% · 44.5%3-point %29.7% · 28.1%Ball care18.3% · 17.3%Off. rebounds26.7% · 29.6%Free throws0.29 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)10% · 10%
■ Cearense   ■ Botafogo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Cearense wins
6
Botafogo wins
DateGameScore
20/10/25Botafogo v Cearense80-84
20/01/25Botafogo v Cearense74-83
27/10/24Cearense v Botafogo52-77
14/02/24Cearense v Botafogo84-75
18/12/23Botafogo v Cearense90-86
01/02/20Botafogo v Cearense86-72
07/11/19Cearense v Botafogo72-76
22/01/19Botafogo v Cearense78-69
16/11/18Cearense v Botafogo65-54
06/02/18Botafogo v Cearense70-68
Cearenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/01/26HVasco73-78
10/01/26HFlamengo81-88
29/12/25HCruzeiro78-86
27/12/25HMinas81-99
23/12/25ACaxias do Sul52-68
21/12/25AUniao Corinthians62-95
18/12/25HPinheiros61-108
15/12/25HPaulistano77-100
09/12/25HOsasco89-82
06/12/25ARio Claro95-98
Botafogolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/01/26AUnifacisa68-77
29/12/25AFlamengo71-104
27/12/25APinheiros64-77
18/12/25AMinas88-95
16/12/25ACruzeiro65-89
13/12/25HUniao Corinthians61-84
08/12/25HCaxias do Sul75-80
04/12/25APaulistano77-101
02/12/25AOsasco70-79
20/11/25HRio Claro74-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cearense
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL19%
HomeLLLLL17%
AwayLLLLL22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games21129
Win %19%17%22%
Points / game77.678.077.1
Allowed / game88.288.288.1
Point differential-10.6-10.2-11.0
Avg total165.8166.2165.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%8%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)0% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Botafogo
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL15%
HomeWLWLL38%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20812
Win %15%38%0%
Points / game70.974.968.2
Allowed / game83.378.486.7
Point differential-12.4-3.5-18.4
Avg total154.2153.2154.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+5%12%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Flamengo2219386%89.376.0+13.3
2 Franca2118386%88.273.6+14.7
3 Pinheiros2117481%87.876.2+11.6
4 Minas2117481%86.778.6+8.1
5 Brasilia2116576%81.272.1+9.1
6 Sao Jose2114767%82.078.1+4.0
7 Corinthians Paulista2214864%83.578.3+5.1
8 Paulistano2112957%80.576.4+4.0
9 Mogi2011955%76.869.3+7.5
10 Unifacisa22121055%81.680.5+1.2
11 Bauru22111150%76.577.0-0.6
12 Uniao Corinthians20101050%78.680.5-1.9
13 Caxias do Sul21101148%72.577.1-4.7
14 Cruzeiro2161529%78.885.9-7.1
15 Pato2151624%72.781.4-8.7
16 Rio Claro2041620%76.088.1-12.1
17 Cearense2141719%77.688.2-10.6
18 Osasco2141719%75.787.3-11.6
19 Botafogo2031715%70.983.3-12.4
20 Vasco2131814%69.379.9-10.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Cearense2624152186
Botafogo2221201982
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