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Cerrado vs Paulistano Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 18 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 64-68
14-15 23-20 12-14 15-19
Position#17
Record4-10
FormWLWLL
Points / game73.2
Allowed / game74.0
vs
Position#7
Record10-5
FormWLWLW
Points / game73.5
Allowed / game70.1
BrazilNBB· Ginasio da ASCEB
Other2023-24
Meetings · Cerrado v Paulistano
18 Dec 2023
CERR64
PAUL68
13 Dec 2022
CERR80
PAUL93
02 Apr 2022
CERR76
PAUL80
11 Apr 2021
CERR67
PAUL75
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cerrado winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Paulistano winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CerradoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCerrado
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#18
L
77-83 OT
77
83
-6
no box
H09/11
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
71-89
71
89
-18
62avg 65
A13/11
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
71-74
71
74
-3
54avg 65
A15/11
NBB
Botafogo
#15
L
73-74
73
74
-1
70avg 65
A18/11
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
84-53
84
53
+31
88avg 65
H24/11
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
70-62
70
62
+8
64avg 65
H28/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
74-78
74
78
-4
65avg 65
H02/12
NBB
Minas
#3
W
68-67
68
67
+1
58avg 65
A06/12
NBB
Franca
#1
L
77-80
77
80
-3
71avg 65
A09/12
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
81-90
81
90
-9
83avg 65
A11/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-19
17-10
14-15
15-21
16-21
13-16
23-20
19-32
18-22
16-17
14-15
23-20
17-14
28-24
12-16
16-20
21-13
20-15
24-16
19-9
21-15
17-20
13-13
19-14
14-12
14-19
28-21
18-26
20-23
26-13
10-17
12-14
22-22
17-22
20-16
18-20
20-27
25-20
19-24
17-19
149.6Avg total
74.6Scored
75.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)73.274.0147.2-0.829%
Season at home (7)74.168.4142.6+5.743%
Season away (7)72.379.6151.9-7.314%
Last 10 (10)74.675.0149.6-0.430%
Last 5 (5)74.075.4149.4-1.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)73.590.1163.6-16.65%
vs Similar (7)76.175.7151.9+0.443%
vs Weaker (4)82.069.2151.2+12.850%
This opponent (Paulistano) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PaulistanoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulistano
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#13
W
72-68
72
68
+4
65avg 66
A09/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
79-71
79
71
+8
72avg 66
A17/11
NBB
Pato
#12
W
79-68
79
68
+11
72avg 66
H22/11
NBB
Minas
#3
L
71-86
71
86
-15
58avg 66
H25/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
63-51
63
51
+12
52avg 66
A28/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
81-65
81
65
+16
76avg 66
A30/11
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
72-77
72
77
-5
56avg 66
H05/12
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
85-77
85
77
+8
78avg 66
H07/12
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
70-76
70
76
-6
58avg 66
H11/12
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
91-69
91
69
+22
91avg 66
A16/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-12
22-22
20-18
9-16
20-20
20-13
22-21
17-17
23-17
24-15
25-13
7-23
9-24
21-19
21-17
20-26
18-11
8-8
20-14
17-18
22-15
19-15
16-22
24-13
19-23
17-22
22-18
14-14
16-9
26-21
23-19
20-28
20-20
17-18
24-20
9-18
17-14
21-21
32-14
21-20
147.1Avg total
76.3Scored
70.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)73.570.1143.6+3.367%
Season at home (8)74.470.5144.9+3.962%
Season away (7)72.469.7142.1+2.771%
Last 10 (10)76.370.8147.1+5.570%
Last 5 (5)79.872.8152.6+7.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)65.883.8149.5-18.00%
vs Similar (12)76.374.1150.4+2.250%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)82.669.0151.6+13.693%
This opponent (Cerrado) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: +4.9+4.9Q4Q4: -1.9-1.9Q4: -3.5-3.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: +4.9+4.9Q4Q4: -1.9-1.9Q4: -3.5-3.5
CerradoPaulistano
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CerradoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
36-29
36
29
+7
H09/11
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
29-37
29
37
-8
A13/11
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A15/11
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
45-38
45
38
+7
A18/11
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
41-28
41
28
+13
H24/11
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H28/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
28-31
28
31
-3
H02/12
NBB
Minas
#3
W
46-36
46
36
+10
A06/12
NBB
Franca
#1
L
39-44
39
44
-5
A09/12
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
45-47
45
47
-2
A11/12
NBB
74.5Avg total
38.1Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.041.679.6-3.637%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.139.578.7-0.447%-
Last 30 away (15)36.843.780.5-6.927%-
Last 10 (10)38.136.474.5+1.750%-
Last 5 (5)39.238.677.8+0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)37.544.882.4-7.326%-
vs Similar (7)35.438.674.0-3.129%-
vs Weaker (4)44.531.576.0+13.0100%-
This opponent (Paulistano) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PaulistanoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#13
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A09/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A17/11
NBB
Pato
#12
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H22/11
NBB
Minas
#3
L
30-43
30
43
-13
H25/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
26-19
26
19
+7
A28/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
41-30
41
30
+11
A30/11
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H05/12
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
42-30
42
30
+12
H07/12
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
37-38
37
38
-1
H11/12
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
38-35
38
35
+3
A16/12
NBB
71.9Avg total
38.0Scored
33.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.135.573.6+2.650%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.034.474.4+5.656%-
Last 30 away (14)35.936.772.6-0.943%-
Last 10 (10)38.033.971.9+4.170%-
Last 5 (5)38.835.674.4+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)31.845.277.0-13.50%-
vs Similar (12)38.235.974.1+2.233%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)39.832.472.1+7.479%-
This opponent (Cerrado) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Cerradotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cerrado: 75.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.918.8
47.1%
51.8%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.38.6
36.9%
33.9%25.8
🏀 Free throws19.211.9
62.0%
72.6%11.9
They take 63.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Paulistanotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Paulistano: 75.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.719.3
47.4%
51.8%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.28.2
33.9%
33.9%24.6
🏀 Free throws17.912.5
69.8%
72.6%12.5
They take 64.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cerrado
LLWLWWLLLL
Paulistano
WLWLWWLWWW
#17
League position
#7
+3.2
Net rating
+7.8
105.6
Offensive rating
105.6
102.3
Defensive rating
97.8
50.2%
Effective FG%
48.7%
49.5%
Opp. effective FG%
47.0%
16.8%
Turnover %
19.1%
32.6%
Off. rebound %
38.3%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.28
36.9%
3-point %
33.9%
66.8%
Assist %
53.8%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence105.6 · 105.6Defence102.3 · 97.8Shooting50.2% · 48.7%3-point %36.9% · 33.9%Ball care16.8% · 19.1%Off. rebounds32.6% · 38.3%Free throws0.30 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)30% · 70%
■ Cerrado   ■ Paulistano
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Cerrado wins
6
Paulistano wins
DateGameScore
13/03/23Paulistano v Cerrado91-77
13/12/22Cerrado v Paulistano80-93
02/04/22Cerrado v Paulistano76-80
01/12/21Paulistano v Cerrado85-84
11/04/21Cerrado v Paulistano67-75
20/11/20Paulistano v Cerrado72-61
Cerradolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/12/23ABauru81-90
09/12/23AFranca77-80
06/12/23AMinas68-67
02/12/23HSao Jose74-78
28/11/23HMogi70-62
24/11/23HBrasilia84-53
18/11/23ABotafogo73-74
15/11/23AVasco71-74
13/11/23AFlamengo71-89
09/11/23HCaxias do Sul77-83 OT
Paulistanolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/12/23ABrasilia91-69
11/12/23HVasco70-76
07/12/23HBotafogo85-77
05/12/23HFlamengo72-77
30/11/23ACaxias do Sul81-65
28/11/23AUniao Corinthians63-51
25/11/23HMinas71-86
22/11/23HPato79-68
17/11/23ACorinthians Paulista79-71
09/11/23APinheiros72-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cerrado
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL29%
HomeWLWWL43%
AwayLLWLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %29%43%14%
Points / game73.274.172.3
Allowed / game74.068.479.6
Point differential-0.8+5.7-7.3
Avg total147.2142.6151.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%29%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)0% (1)25% (4)
Overtime %7%14%0%
Paulistano
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW67%
HomeWLLWL62%
AwayWWWWW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1587
Win %67%62%71%
Points / game73.574.472.4
Allowed / game70.170.569.7
Point differential+3.3+3.9+2.7
Avg total143.6144.9142.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%38%43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Flamengo1210283%83.072.3+10.7
2 Minas1411379%84.475.3+9.1
3 Franca1310377%87.075.5+11.5
4 Sao Jose139469%81.672.7+8.9
5 Unifacisa128467%78.074.0+4.0
6 Vasco1510567%72.368.5+3.9
7 Paulistano1510567%73.570.1+3.3
8 Cearense128467%77.374.2+3.1
9 Bauru158753%78.276.1+2.1
10 Corinthians Paulista136746%80.680.8-0.2
11 Sao Paulo146843%77.180.3-3.1
12 Pinheiros135838%75.579.4-3.8
13 Uniao Corinthians135838%72.579.8-7.4
14 Caxias do Sul135838%71.779.5-7.8
15 Pato145936%74.677.9-3.4
16 Cerrado1441029%73.274.0-0.8
17 Botafogo1541127%76.483.3-6.9
18 Brasilia1431121%71.685.4-13.8
19 Mogi1421214%73.380.1-6.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Cerrado1423121564
Paulistano1520141968
← all games of the day
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