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Croatia vs Poland Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 28 Feb 2027
Tip-off: 17:00
Scheduled
Position#5
Record11-1
FormLWWWW
Points / game99.2
Allowed / game73.5
vs
Position#7
Record7-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game95.8
Allowed / game82.2
EuropeWorld CupRound 6
Other2027
Meetings · Croatia v Poland
28 Feb 2027
CROA v POLA
upcoming
13 Nov 2022
CROA79
POLA87
22 Feb 2019
CROA69
POLA77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Croatia win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Poland win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Norway
#75
W
102-53
102
53
+49
H16/08
World Cup
Denmark
#79
W
79-76
79
76
+3
A20/08
World Cup
Cyprus
#92
W
100-60
100
60
+40
H28/11
World Cup
Israel
#67
W
85-71
85
71
+14
A01/12
World Cup
Germany
#8
W
93-88
93
88
+5
H27/02
World Cup
Germany
#8
L
89-91 OT
89
91
-2
A01/03
World Cup
Cyprus
#92
W
123-50
123
50
+73
A03/07
World Cup
Israel
#67
W
103-75
103
75
+28
H06/07
World Cup
Latvia
#40
W
115-80
115
80
+35
H27/08
World Cup
Netherlands
#56
W
101-99
101
99
+2
A30/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-14
34-8
22-13
18-18
12-21
24-17
24-19
19-19
28-8
19-19
28-23
25-10
25-25
22-17
24-14
14-15
20-26
26-24
29-22
18-16
24-22
26-19
17-21
10-15
35-12
24-14
33-10
31-14
25-12
22-19
27-20
29-24
23-14
37-27
25-16
30-23
22-31
22-27
32-19
25-22
173.3Avg total
99.0Scored
74.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)99.273.5172.8+25.892%
Season at home (6)102.271.2173.3+31.0100%
Season away (6)96.375.8172.2+20.583%
Last 10 (10)99.074.3173.3+24.790%
Last 5 (5)106.279.0185.2+27.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)86.289.2175.4-3.040%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)92.071.2163.3+20.884%
This opponent (Poland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PolandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H07/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
77-91
77
91
-14
A09/09
EuroBasket
Austria
#54
W
90-78
90
78
+12
H28/11
World Cup
Netherlands
#56
W
85-83
85
83
+2
A01/12
World Cup
Latvia
#40
W
84-82
84
82
+2
A27/02
World Cup
Latvia
#40
W
92-72
92
72
+20
H01/03
World Cup
Austria
#54
W
123-77
123
77
+46
A03/07
World Cup
Netherlands
#56
W
92-84
92
84
+8
H06/07
World Cup
Israel
#67
W
106-86
106
86
+20
A27/08
World Cup
Germany
#8
L
94-96 OT
94
96
-2
H30/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-23
26-21
22-17
18-11
19-19
13-27
18-19
27-26
22-18
21-21
26-21
21-18
22-28
15-25
21-17
27-13
21-23
21-25
24-14
18-20
23-16
31-20
16-18
22-18
24-16
29-12
28-29
42-20
18-16
28-28
27-21
19-19
23-15
32-27
25-18
26-26
15-28
16-13
27-29
25-13
174.4Avg total
92.3Scored
82.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)95.882.2178.0+13.588%
Season at home (4)92.082.5174.5+9.575%
Season away (4)99.582.0181.5+17.5100%
Last 10 (10)92.382.1174.4+10.280%
Last 5 (5)101.483.0184.4+18.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)74.286.9161.1-12.629%
vs Similar (7)84.476.1160.6+8.386%
vs Weaker (9)91.778.6170.2+13.189%
This opponent (Croatia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +5.7+5.7Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: +6.5+6.5Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: +8.4+8.4Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: +4.3+4.3Q4: +6.1+6.1
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +5.7+5.7Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: +6.5+6.5Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: +8.4+8.4Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: +4.3+4.3Q4: +6.1+6.1
CroatiaPoland
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CroatiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Norway
#75
W
62-22
62
22
+40
H16/08
World Cup
Denmark
#79
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A20/08
World Cup
Cyprus
#92
W
47-27
47
27
+20
H28/11
World Cup
Israel
#67
W
47-42
47
42
+5
A01/12
World Cup
Germany
#8
L
46-50
46
50
-4
H27/02
World Cup
Germany
#8
W
50-41
50
41
+9
A01/03
World Cup
Cyprus
#92
W
59-26
59
26
+33
A03/07
World Cup
Israel
#67
W
47-31
47
31
+16
H06/07
World Cup
Latvia
#40
W
60-41
60
41
+19
H27/08
World Cup
Netherlands
#56
L
44-58
44
58
-14
A30/08
World Cup
87.4Avg total
49.8Scored
37.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.436.983.4+9.570%-
Last 30 at home (15)48.634.382.9+14.387%-
Last 30 away (15)44.339.583.8+4.753%-
Last 10 (10)49.837.687.4+12.270%-
Last 5 (5)52.039.491.4+12.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)44.445.489.8-1.040%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)46.835.282.1+11.676%-
This opponent (Poland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PolandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
L
40-44
40
44
-4
H07/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A09/09
EuroBasket
Austria
#54
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H28/11
World Cup
Netherlands
#56
L
37-53
37
53
-16
A01/12
World Cup
Latvia
#40
L
42-48
42
48
-6
A27/02
World Cup
Latvia
#40
W
54-36
54
36
+18
H01/03
World Cup
Austria
#54
W
53-28
53
28
+25
A03/07
World Cup
Netherlands
#56
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H06/07
World Cup
Israel
#67
W
55-42
55
42
+13
A27/08
World Cup
Germany
#8
L
31-41
31
41
-10
H30/08
World Cup
85.4Avg total
43.3Scored
42.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.540.379.8-0.840%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.738.076.7+0.750%-
Last 30 away (16)40.242.382.6-2.131%-
Last 10 (10)43.342.185.4+1.250%-
Last 5 (5)47.838.286.0+9.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)35.941.076.9-5.121%-
vs Similar (7)39.939.179.0+0.743%-
vs Weaker (9)44.940.185.0+4.867%-
This opponent (Croatia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Croatiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Croatia: 87.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.3 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 17% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.118.3
55.3%
-36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.812.1
40.6%
-36.3
🏀 Free throws19.215.0
78.1%
-15.0
They take 62.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Polandtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Poland: 75.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀25%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 25% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.216.0
53.0%
-32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.68.3
32.4%
-24.9
🏀 Free throws25.019.0
76.0%
-19.0
They take 55.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Feb 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Croatia
WWWWLWWWWW
Poland
LWWWWWWWLW
#5
League position
#7
+22.7
Net rating
-5.5
120.4
Offensive rating
106.9
97.6
Defensive rating
112.3
57.9%
Effective FG%
51.0%
47.5%
Opp. effective FG%
53.2%
15.9%
Turnover %
19.9%
29.0%
Off. rebound %
29.8%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.45
40.6%
3-point %
32.4%
74.0%
Assist %
61.7%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)90% · 80%
■ Croatia   ■ Poland
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Croatia wins
3
Poland wins
DateGameScore
13/11/22Croatia v Poland79-87
25/08/22Poland v Croatia69-72
22/02/19Croatia v Poland69-77
17/09/18Poland v Croatia79-74
Croatialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/08/26ANetherlands101-99
27/08/26HLatvia115-80
06/07/26HIsrael103-75
03/07/26ACyprus123-50
01/03/26AGermany89-91 OT
27/02/26HGermany93-88
01/12/25AIsrael85-71
28/11/25HCyprus100-60
20/08/25ADenmark79-76
16/08/25HNorway102-53
Polandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/08/26HGermany94-96 OT
27/08/26AIsrael106-86
06/07/26HNetherlands92-84
03/07/26AAustria123-77
01/03/26HLatvia92-72
27/02/26ALatvia84-82
01/12/25ANetherlands85-83
28/11/25HAustria90-78
09/09/25ATurkey77-91
07/09/25HBosnia & Herzegovina80-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Croatia
World Cup 2027
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW92%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWLWW83%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %92%100%83%
Points / game99.2102.296.3
Allowed / game73.571.275.8
Point differential+25.8+31.0+20.5
Avg total172.8173.3172.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%83%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %8%0%17%
Poland
World Cup 2027
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL88%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %88%75%100%
Points / game95.892.099.5
Allowed / game82.282.582.0
Point differential+13.5+9.5+17.5
Avg total178.0174.5181.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)0% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %12%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Australia880100%101.870.0+31.8
2 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
3 Canada880100%100.981.1+19.8
4 Turkey880100%91.972.6+19.2
5 Croatia1211192%99.273.5+25.8
6 France87188%85.171.6+13.5
7 Poland87188%95.882.2+13.5
8 Germany87188%93.682.1+11.5
9 Dominican Republic65183%93.377.8+15.5
10 Mexico65183%93.781.8+11.8
11 Senegal97278%86.370.6+15.8
12 South Sudan97278%82.068.6+13.4
13 Ivory Coast97278%88.276.1+12.1
14 Cameroon97278%76.471.6+4.9
15 New Zealand86275%97.279.8+17.5
16 Japan86275%91.074.8+16.2
17 Argentina86275%87.271.5+15.8
18 Lebanon86275%89.674.6+15.0
19 Brazil86275%90.878.1+12.6
20 Uruguay86275%84.473.4+11.0
21 Serbia86275%87.178.1+9.0
22 Ukraine129375%83.275.9+7.3
23 Angola96367%86.873.0+13.8
24 Guinea96367%75.266.1+9.1
25 Mali96367%81.478.0+3.4
26 Jordan85362%85.571.0+14.5
27 Spain85362%90.178.8+11.4
28 Iran85362%74.967.8+7.1
29 Italy85362%83.076.9+6.1
30 China85362%84.581.6+2.9
31 Georgia85362%85.582.6+2.9
32 Finland85362%80.679.2+1.4
33 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
34 Romania148657%76.976.6+0.3
35 Nigeria95456%79.976.9+3.0
36 Tunisia95456%71.769.9+1.8
37 Portugal84450%83.879.5+4.2
38 Hungary126650%80.977.9+3.0
39 Greece84450%77.174.5+2.6
40 Latvia84450%83.481.2+2.1
41 Lithuania84450%85.984.6+1.2
42 Bahamas84450%93.292.1+1.1
43 Switzerland168850%73.172.8+0.3
44 Slovenia84450%84.083.8+0.2
45 Philippines84450%76.976.8+0.1
46 South Korea84450%78.479.1-0.8
47 Sweden84450%81.183.5-2.4
48 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
49 Czech Republic63350%81.386.2-4.8
50 Qatar84450%75.981.5-5.6
51 Montenegro84450%71.879.1-7.4
52 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
53 Egypt94544%75.973.1+2.8
54 Austria146843%83.084.9-1.9
55 Colombia73443%83.691.4-7.9
56 Netherlands125742%82.181.1+1.0
57 Bosnia & Herzegovina83538%78.177.1+1.0
58 Estonia83538%80.483.0-2.6
59 Saudi Arabia83538%76.479.6-3.2
60 Iceland83538%81.293.8-12.5
61 Cape Verde93633%75.681.3-5.8
62 Chinese Taipei62433%77.284.5-7.3
63 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
64 Jamaica62433%86.3102.8-16.5
65 D.R. Congo93633%68.885.7-16.9
66 Chile72529%71.380.6-9.3
67 Israel82625%79.283.5-4.2
68 Puerto Rico82625%85.990.2-4.4
69 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
70 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
71 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
72 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
73 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
74 Panama82625%75.488.9-13.5
75 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
76 Syria82625%66.889.9-23.1
77 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
78 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
79 Denmark102820%73.186.8-13.7
80 Venezuela61517%79.087.5-8.5
81 Great Britain61517%80.290.5-10.3
82 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
83 Belgium6060%71.880.0-8.2
84 Rwanda6060%66.285.7-19.5
85 Libya6060%66.586.7-20.2
86 Uganda6060%64.086.5-22.5
87 Cuba6060%66.789.8-23.2
88 Nicaragua4040%72.095.5-23.5
89 Madagascar6060%73.797.7-24.0
90 Iraq6060%69.393.8-24.5
91 India6060%60.886.2-25.3
92 Cyprus6060%60.299.0-38.8
93 Guam6060%65.2104.5-39.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.
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