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Duke vs Virginia Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 21 Feb 2021
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 66-65
39-36 27-29
Position#154
Record9-8
FormLLLWW
Points / game76.1
Allowed / game71.5
Duke 🏆
USA
vs
Virginia
USA
Position#43
Record15-4
FormWWWWL
Points / game69.4
Allowed / game59.9
USANCAA
Other2020-21
Meetings · Duke v Virginia
14 Mar 2026
DUKE74
VIRG70
28 Feb 2026
DUKE77
VIRG51
02 Mar 2024
DUKE73
VIRG48
07 Feb 2022
DUKE68
VIRG69
20 Feb 2021
DUKE66
VIRG65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Virginia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia Tech
#65
L
67-74
67
74
-7
A13/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#215
L
73-79
73
79
-6
A20/01
NCAA
Louisville
#94
L
65-70
65
70
-5
A23/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#84
W
75-68
75
68
+7
H27/01
NCAA
Clemson
#78
W
79-53
79
53
+26
H30/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#268
L
75-77
75
77
-2
A02/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#105
L
87-91
87
91
-4
H06/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#236
L
89-93
89
93
-4
H09/02
NCAA
NC State
#137
W
69-53
69
53
+16
A13/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#312
W
84-60
84
60
+24
A18/02
NCAA
1H
2H
34-46
33-28
34-43
39-36
33-36
32-34
33-25
42-43
41-22
38-31
35-33
40-44
39-41
48-50
50-45
39-48
39-21
30-32
45-26
39-34
148.1Avg total
76.3Scored
71.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)76.171.5147.6+4.653%
Season at home (10)78.673.8152.4+4.860%
Season away (7)72.668.3140.9+4.343%
Last 10 (10)76.371.8148.1+4.540%
Last 5 (5)80.874.8155.6+6.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)72.068.5140.5+3.550%
vs Similar ◀ (8)73.169.1142.2+4.050%
vs Weaker (20)81.873.9155.8+7.970%
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#236
W
80-68
80
68
+12
H13/01
NCAA
Clemson
#78
W
85-50
85
50
+35
A16/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#84
W
64-62
64
62
+2
H24/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#96
W
81-58
81
58
+23
H26/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#65
L
51-65
51
65
-14
A30/01
NCAA
NC State
#137
W
64-57
64
57
+7
A04/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#215
W
73-66
73
66
+7
H06/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#84
W
57-49
57
49
+8
A11/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#105
W
60-48
60
48
+12
H13/02
NCAA
Florida State
#42
L
60-81
60
81
-21
A16/02
NCAA
1H
2H
37-25
43-43
33-17
52-33
32-36
32-26
35-26
46-32
29-21
22-44
28-24
36-33
30-27
43-39
20-26
37-23
27-18
33-30
25-45
35-36
127.9Avg total
67.5Scored
60.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)69.459.9129.4+9.579%
Season at home (11)74.160.9135.0+13.291%
Season away (8)63.058.6121.6+4.462%
Last 10 (10)67.560.4127.9+7.180%
Last 5 (5)62.860.2123.0+2.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)63.667.6131.2-4.060%
vs Similar ◀ (10)60.457.6118.0+2.880%
vs Weaker (15)69.655.9125.5+13.793%
This opponent (Duke) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.5+4.51st half: +3.1+3.12nd half2nd half: +0.0+0.02nd half: +4.0+4.0
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.5+4.51st half: +3.1+3.12nd half2nd half: +0.0+0.02nd half: +4.0+4.0
DukeVirginia
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia Tech
#65
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A13/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#215
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A20/01
NCAA
Louisville
#94
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A23/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#84
W
33-25
33
25
+8
H27/01
NCAA
Clemson
#78
W
41-22
41
22
+19
H30/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#268
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A02/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#105
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H06/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#236
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H09/02
NCAA
NC State
#137
W
39-21
39
21
+18
A13/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#312
W
45-26
45
26
+19
A18/02
NCAA
72.1Avg total
38.3Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.533.771.2+3.960%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.832.972.6+6.976%-
Last 30 away (13)34.634.769.3-0.138%-
Last 10 (10)38.333.872.1+4.560%-
Last 5 (5)41.633.274.8+8.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)32.034.066.0-2.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)35.833.269.0+2.550%-
vs Weaker (20)38.833.872.6+5.065%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#236
W
37-25
37
25
+12
H13/01
NCAA
Clemson
#78
W
33-17
33
17
+16
A16/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#84
L
32-36
32
36
-4
H24/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#96
W
35-26
35
26
+9
H26/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#65
W
29-21
29
21
+8
A30/01
NCAA
NC State
#137
W
28-24
28
24
+4
A04/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#215
W
30-27
30
27
+3
H06/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#84
L
20-26
20
26
-6
A11/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#105
W
27-18
27
18
+9
H13/02
NCAA
Florida State
#42
L
25-45
25
45
-20
A16/02
NCAA
56.1Avg total
29.6Scored
26.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.025.455.4+4.667%-
Last 30 at home (17)32.024.956.9+7.165%-
Last 30 away (13)27.526.153.5+1.469%-
Last 10 (10)29.626.556.1+3.170%-
Last 5 (5)26.028.054.0-2.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)28.833.061.8-4.220%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)27.626.353.9+1.360%-
vs Weaker (15)32.122.354.3+9.887%-
This opponent (Duke) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Duke wins
1
Virginia wins
DateGameScore
29/02/20Virginia v Duke52-50
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/02/21AWake Forest84-60
13/02/21ANC State69-53
09/02/21HNotre Dame89-93
06/02/21HNorth Carolina87-91
02/02/21AMiami (FL)75-77
30/01/21HClemson79-53
27/01/21HGeorgia Tech75-68
23/01/21ALouisville65-70
20/01/21APittsburgh73-79
13/01/21AVirginia Tech67-74
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/02/21AFlorida State60-81
13/02/21HNorth Carolina60-48
11/02/21AGeorgia Tech57-49
06/02/21HPittsburgh73-66
04/02/21ANC State64-57
30/01/21AVirginia Tech51-65
26/01/21HSyracuse81-58
24/01/21HGeorgia Tech64-62
16/01/21AClemson85-50
13/01/21HNotre Dame80-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2020-21
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW53%
HomeWWWLL60%
AwayLLLWW43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17107
Win %53%60%43%
Points / game76.178.672.6
Allowed / game71.573.868.3
Point differential+4.6+4.8+4.3
Avg total147.6152.4140.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+41%40%43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)33% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Virginia
NCAA 2020-21
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL79%
HomeWWWWW91%
AwayWLWWL62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19118
Win %79%91%62%
Points / game69.474.163.0
Allowed / game59.960.958.6
Point differential+9.5+13.2+4.4
Avg total129.4135.0121.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%55%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %5%9%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Florida State1613381%79.269.1+10.2
2 Virginia1915479%69.459.9+9.5
3 Virginia Tech1814478%72.565.6+6.9
4 SMU Mustangs1511473%74.366.6+7.7
5 Clemson1813572%65.663.1+2.5
6 Louisville1611569%68.566.4+2.1
7 Syracuse1913668%76.570.3+6.3
8 North Carolina2114767%74.468.8+5.6
9 Stanford2314961%71.968.7+3.2
10 Georgia Tech1911858%75.270.5+4.7
11 Duke179853%76.171.5+4.6
12 NC State1910953%73.870.3+3.6
13 Pittsburgh189950%72.270.3+1.9
14 Notre Dame2091145%72.672.0+0.7
15 Wake Forest1761135%69.271.4-2.2
16 Miami (FL)2071335%66.170.8-4.8
17 California2481633%66.370.6-4.2
18 Boston College1631319%71.477.6-6.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke392766
Virginia362965
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