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Duke vs Virginia Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 15 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 74-70
38-36 36-34
Position#8
Record31-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game82.5
Allowed / game62.9
Duke 🏆
USA
vs
Virginia
USA
Position#19
Record29-5
FormLWWWW
Points / game80.2
Allowed / game69.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Duke v Virginia
14 Mar 2026
DUKE74
VIRG70
28 Feb 2026
DUKE77
VIRG51
02 Mar 2024
DUKE73
VIRG48
07 Feb 2022
DUKE68
VIRG69
20 Feb 2021
DUKE66
VIRG65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Virginia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pittsburgh
#282
W
70-54
70
54
+16
A11/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-54
67
54
+13
H14/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
101-64
101
64
+37
H17/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
100-56
100
56
+44
A25/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
77-51
77
51
+26
H28/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
93-64
93
64
+29
A03/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
76-61
76
61
+15
H07/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
80-79
80
79
+1
H12/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
73-61
73
61
+12
H14/03
NCAA
1H
2H
35-29
35-25
31-26
36-28
40-24
61-40
35-33
33-30
54-22
46-34
41-26
36-25
47-30
46-34
39-34
37-27
43-44
37-35
41-22
32-39
141.2Avg total
80.5Scored
60.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)82.562.9145.5+19.694%
Season at home (21)82.662.8145.4+19.995%
Season away (12)82.463.2145.7+19.292%
Last 10 (10)80.560.7141.2+19.8100%
Last 5 (5)79.863.2143.0+16.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)67.564.5132.0+3.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)82.363.4145.7+18.993%
This opponent (Virginia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida State
#167
W
61-58
61
58
+3
A11/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
70-66
70
66
+4
A15/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
94-68
94
68
+26
A19/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
86-83
86
83
+3
H21/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
90-61
90
61
+29
H25/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
51-77
51
77
-26
A28/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
75-70
75
70
+5
H04/03
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
76-72
76
72
+4
H07/03
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
81-74
81
74
+7
H12/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
84-62
84
62
+22
H13/03
NCAA
1H
2H
32-32
29-26
37-37
33-29
59-27
35-41
39-44
47-39
32-19
58-42
26-41
25-36
32-24
43-46
41-25
35-47
33-32
48-42
38-23
46-39
145.9Avg total
76.8Scored
69.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (34)80.269.4149.5+10.885%
Season at home (22)82.966.2149.1+16.691%
Season away (12)75.275.1150.3+0.275%
Last 10 (10)76.869.1145.9+7.790%
Last 5 (5)73.471.0144.4+2.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)51.077.0128.0-26.00%
vs Similar (10)80.669.9150.5+10.790%
vs Weaker (19)81.968.8150.7+13.189%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +11.6+11.61st half: +6.5+6.52nd half2nd half: +8.2+8.22nd half: +1.2+1.2
-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +11.6+11.61st half: +6.5+6.52nd half2nd half: +8.2+8.22nd half: +1.2+1.2
DukeVirginia
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pittsburgh
#282
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A11/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H14/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
40-24
40
24
+16
H17/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H21/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
54-22
54
22
+32
A25/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
41-26
41
26
+15
H28/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
47-30
47
30
+17
A03/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H07/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H12/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
41-22
41
22
+19
H14/03
NCAA
69.6Avg total
40.6Scored
29.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.130.972.1+10.283%-
Last 30 at home (19)41.730.572.3+11.289%-
Last 30 away (11)40.131.671.7+8.573%-
Last 10 (10)40.629.069.6+11.690%-
Last 5 (5)42.231.273.4+11.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)35.528.564.0+7.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (28)41.531.172.6+10.482%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida State
#167
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A11/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A15/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
59-27
59
27
+32
A19/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H21/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
32-19
32
19
+13
H25/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
26-41
26
41
-15
A28/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
32-24
32
24
+8
H04/03
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
41-25
41
25
+16
H07/03
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H12/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
38-23
38
23
+15
H13/03
NCAA
67.3Avg total
36.9Scored
30.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.430.769.2+7.777%-
Last 30 at home (19)39.730.269.9+9.589%-
Last 30 away (11)36.331.667.9+4.655%-
Last 10 (10)36.930.467.3+6.560%-
Last 5 (5)34.029.063.0+5.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)26.041.067.0-15.00%-
vs Similar (10)38.130.168.2+8.080%-
vs Weaker (19)39.330.569.8+8.779%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Duke wins
3
Virginia wins
DateGameScore
28/02/26Duke v Virginia77-51
18/02/25Virginia v Duke62-80
02/03/24Duke v Virginia73-48
12/03/23Virginia v Duke49-59
11/02/23Virginia v Duke69-62 OT
24/02/22Virginia v Duke61-65
08/02/22Duke v Virginia68-69
21/02/21Duke v Virginia66-65
29/02/20Virginia v Duke52-50
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/03/26HClemson73-61
12/03/26HFlorida State80-79
07/03/26HNorth Carolina76-61
03/03/26ANC State93-64
28/02/26HVirginia77-51
25/02/26ANotre Dame100-56
21/02/26HMichigan68-63
17/02/26HSyracuse101-64
14/02/26HClemson67-54
11/02/26APittsburgh70-54
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/03/26HMiami (FL)84-62
12/03/26HNC State81-74
07/03/26HVirginia Tech76-72
04/03/26HWake Forest75-70
28/02/26ADuke51-77
25/02/26HNC State90-61
21/02/26HMiami (FL)86-83
19/02/26AGeorgia Tech94-68
15/02/26AOhio State70-66
11/02/26AFlorida State61-58

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW94%
HomeWWWWW95%
AwayWLWWW92%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games332112
Win %94%95%92%
Points / game82.582.682.4
Allowed / game62.962.863.2
Point differential+19.6+19.9+19.2
Avg total145.5145.4145.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+70%71%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)75% (4)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Virginia
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW85%
HomeWWWWW91%
AwayWWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games342212
Win %85%91%75%
Points / game80.282.975.2
Allowed / game69.466.275.1
Point differential+10.8+16.6+0.2
Avg total149.5149.1150.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%64%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won89% (9)80% (5)100% (4)
Overtime %6%0%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke3331294%82.562.9+19.6
2 Virginia3429585%80.269.4+10.8
3 Miami (FL)3325876%81.971.2+10.8
4 North Carolina3224875%79.871.3+8.5
5 Clemson34241071%74.166.7+7.4
6 Louisville33231070%84.872.2+12.6
7 California32211166%77.973.2+4.6
8 Stanford32201262%76.072.7+3.3
9 NC State33201361%83.776.5+7.2
10 SMU Mustangs33201361%84.277.6+6.6
11 Virginia Tech32191359%78.874.9+3.9
12 Florida State33181555%80.477.9+2.4
13 Wake Forest33171652%78.877.1+1.8
14 Syracuse32151747%75.074.2+0.8
15 Notre Dame31131842%74.575.3-0.9
16 Pittsburgh33132039%70.571.8-1.3
17 Boston College31112035%67.470.7-3.3
18 Georgia Tech31112035%73.877.4-3.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke383674
Virginia363470
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