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Duke vs Virginia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 02 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 73-48
40-18 33-30
Position#32
Record22-6
FormWWWLW
Points / game80.5
Allowed / game67.4
Duke 🏆
USA
vs
Virginia
USA
Position#66
Record21-8
FormLWLLW
Points / game63.7
Allowed / game58.7
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Duke v Virginia
14 Mar 2026
DUKE74
VIRG70
28 Feb 2026
DUKE77
VIRG51
02 Mar 2024
DUKE73
VIRG48
07 Feb 2022
DUKE68
VIRG69
20 Feb 2021
DUKE66
VIRG65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Virginia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#74
W
72-71
72
71
+1
H27/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#161
W
77-67
77
67
+10
A30/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#19
L
84-93
84
93
-9
A03/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#291
W
71-53
71
53
+18
H08/02
NCAA
Boston College
#169
W
80-65
80
65
+15
H10/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
W
77-69
77
69
+8
H13/02
NCAA
Florida State
#196
W
76-67
76
67
+9
A17/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#246
W
84-55
84
55
+29
A22/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
L
79-83
79
83
-4
A24/02
NCAA
Louisville
#348
W
84-59
84
59
+25
H29/02
NCAA
1H
2H
32-26
40-45
35-29
42-38
35-45
49-48
33-25
38-28
36-32
44-33
29-27
48-42
44-34
32-33
40-23
44-32
38-36
41-47
36-23
48-36
146.6Avg total
78.4Scored
68.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)80.567.4148.0+13.179%
Season at home (17)83.166.2149.3+16.988%
Season away (11)76.569.4145.9+7.264%
Last 10 (10)78.468.2146.6+10.280%
Last 5 (5)80.066.6146.6+13.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)63.058.0121.0+5.050%
vs Similar (3)78.380.3158.7-2.033%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)80.865.9146.7+14.984%
This opponent (Virginia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#348
W
69-52
69
52
+17
A27/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#291
W
65-53
65
53
+12
H01/02
NCAA
Clemson
#74
W
66-65
66
65
+1
A03/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#246
W
60-38
60
38
+22
H06/02
NCAA
Florida State
#196
W
80-76
80
76
+4
A11/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#69
L
63-74
63
74
-11
H14/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
W
49-47
49
47
+2
H17/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#161
L
41-75
41
75
-34
A20/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#19
L
44-54
44
54
-10
H24/02
NCAA
Boston College
#169
W
72-68
72
68
+4
A29/02
NCAA
1H
2H
41-13
28-39
38-23
27-30
34-26
32-39
29-17
31-21
34-30
46-46
31-35
32-39
21-22
28-25
16-36
25-39
16-26
28-28
27-23
45-45
121.1Avg total
60.9Scored
60.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)63.758.7122.4+5.072%
Season at home (18)66.052.3118.3+13.789%
Season away (11)59.969.3129.2-9.445%
Last 10 (10)60.960.2121.1+0.770%
Last 5 (5)53.863.6117.4-9.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)56.057.6113.6-1.640%
vs Similar (16)63.961.2125.2+2.769%
vs Weaker (9)67.955.9123.8+12.089%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.8+5.81st half: +3.6+3.62nd half2nd half: +4.4+4.42nd half: -2.9-2.9
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.8+5.81st half: +3.6+3.62nd half2nd half: +4.4+4.42nd half: -2.9-2.9
DukeVirginia
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#74
W
32-26
32
26
+6
H27/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#161
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A30/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#19
L
35-45
35
45
-10
A03/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#291
W
33-25
33
25
+8
H08/02
NCAA
Boston College
#169
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H10/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
W
29-27
29
27
+2
H13/02
NCAA
Florida State
#196
W
44-34
44
34
+10
A17/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#246
W
40-23
40
23
+17
A22/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A24/02
NCAA
Louisville
#348
W
36-23
36
23
+13
H29/02
NCAA
65.8Avg total
35.8Scored
30.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.730.667.3+6.173%-
Last 30 at home (18)37.330.768.0+6.778%-
Last 30 away (12)35.830.566.2+5.267%-
Last 10 (10)35.830.065.8+5.890%-
Last 5 (5)37.428.666.0+8.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)30.525.055.5+5.550%-
vs Similar (3)34.039.373.3-5.333%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)37.530.067.5+7.580%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#348
W
41-13
41
13
+28
A27/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#291
W
38-23
38
23
+15
H01/02
NCAA
Clemson
#74
W
34-26
34
26
+8
A03/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#246
W
29-17
29
17
+12
H06/02
NCAA
Florida State
#196
W
34-30
34
30
+4
A11/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#69
L
31-35
31
35
-4
H14/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
L
21-22
21
22
-1
H17/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#161
L
16-36
16
36
-20
A20/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#19
L
16-26
16
26
-10
H24/02
NCAA
Boston College
#169
W
27-23
27
23
+4
A29/02
NCAA
53.8Avg total
28.7Scored
25.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.625.155.8+5.567%-
Last 30 at home (19)32.222.554.7+9.679%-
Last 30 away (11)28.029.657.6-1.645%-
Last 10 (10)28.725.153.8+3.660%-
Last 5 (5)22.228.450.6-6.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)26.025.451.4+0.620%-
vs Similar (16)29.625.755.3+3.975%-
vs Weaker (9)35.024.059.0+11.078%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Duke wins
3
Virginia wins
DateGameScore
12/03/23Virginia v Duke49-59
11/02/23Virginia v Duke69-62 OT
24/02/22Virginia v Duke61-65
08/02/22Duke v Virginia68-69
21/02/21Duke v Virginia66-65
29/02/20Virginia v Duke52-50
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/02/24HLouisville84-59
24/02/24AWake Forest79-83
22/02/24AMiami (FL)84-55
17/02/24AFlorida State76-67
13/02/24HWake Forest77-69
10/02/24HBoston College80-65
08/02/24HNotre Dame71-53
03/02/24ANorth Carolina84-93
30/01/24AVirginia Tech77-67
27/01/24HClemson72-71
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/02/24ABoston College72-68
24/02/24HNorth Carolina44-54
20/02/24AVirginia Tech41-75
17/02/24HWake Forest49-47
14/02/24HPittsburgh63-74
11/02/24AFlorida State80-76
06/02/24HMiami (FL)60-38
03/02/24AClemson66-65
01/02/24HNotre Dame65-53
27/01/24ALouisville69-52

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW79%
HomeWWWWW88%
AwayWLWWL64%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281711
Win %79%88%64%
Points / game80.583.176.5
Allowed / game67.466.269.4
Point differential+13.1+16.9+7.2
Avg total148.0149.3145.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+54%65%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won29% (7)50% (4)0% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Virginia
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW72%
HomeWWLWL89%
AwayWWWLW45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291811
Win %72%89%45%
Points / game63.766.059.9
Allowed / game58.752.369.3
Point differential+5.0+13.7-9.4
Avg total122.4118.3129.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%56%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (7)100% (4)100% (3)
Overtime %3%6%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 North Carolina2923679%81.470.4+11.0
2 Duke2822679%80.567.4+13.1
3 Virginia2921872%63.758.7+5.0
4 Clemson2820871%78.470.8+7.6
5 SMU Mustangs29191066%77.067.0+10.0
6 Syracuse29191066%76.674.9+1.7
7 Pittsburgh28181064%74.667.1+7.5
8 Wake Forest29181162%78.970.3+8.6
9 NC State29171259%76.072.3+3.7
10 Virginia Tech29161355%74.670.6+3.9
11 Boston College28151354%75.773.5+2.2
12 Florida State29151452%76.475.4+1.0
13 Miami (FL)30151550%76.473.2+3.1
14 California29131645%75.076.2-1.2
15 Georgia Tech29131645%71.275.2-4.0
16 Stanford28121643%76.576.9-0.4
17 Notre Dame28111739%63.465.6-2.2
18 Louisville2882029%72.178.8-6.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke403373
Virginia183048
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