PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Estonia vs Sweden Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 01 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 69-79
22-23 16-15 17-13 14-28
Position#58
Record2-1
FormLLWLW
Points / game91.3
Allowed / game89.0
vs
Sweden 🏆
Position#47
Record0-3
FormLLLLL
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game93.0
EuropeWorld CupRound 4· Unibet Arena
Other2027
Meetings · Estonia v Sweden
01 Mar 2026
ESTO69
SWED79
11 Nov 2022
ESTO82
SWED87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Estonia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sweden winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

EstoniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormEstonia
Date
Competition
North Macedonia
#15
W
84-65
84
65
+19
no box
H21/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
75-82
75
82
-7
no box
A24/02
EuroBasket
Serbia
#6
L
64-98
64
98
-34
49avg 63
A27/08
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
L
70-72
70
72
-2
67avg 63
H29/08
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
89-75
89
75
+14
81avg 63
A30/08
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
64-84
64
84
-20
54avg 63
H01/09
EuroBasket
Portugal
#17
L
65-68
65
68
-3
65avg 63
H03/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#44
W
94-93 OT
94
93
+1
no box
A28/11
World Cup
Czech Republic
#49
L
92-97
92
97
-5
no box
H01/12
World Cup
Sweden
#47
W
88-77
88
77
+11
no box
A27/02
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-17
16-22
20-11
26-15
19-28
24-32
21-7
11-15
12-32
17-24
15-30
20-12
21-17
21-21
19-25
9-9
23-19
31-17
23-18
12-21
13-25
14-21
22-19
15-19
14-14
18-13
13-20
20-21
19-20
20-18
26-20
14-21
29-27
24-31
21-22
18-17
22-22
24-14
11-22
31-19
159.6Avg total
78.5Scored
81.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)91.389.0180.3+2.367%
Season at home (1)92.097.0189.0-5.00%
Season away (2)91.085.0176.0+6.0100%
Last 10 (10)78.581.1159.6-2.640%
Last 5 (5)80.683.8164.4-3.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (21)71.880.4152.1-8.624%
vs Similar ◀ (5)86.480.2166.6+6.280%
vs Weaker (4)80.577.2157.8+3.250%
This opponent (Sweden) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SwedenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSweden
Date
Competition
Montenegro
#19
W
86-83 OT
86
83
+3
no box
H23/02
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
L
90-93
90
93
-3
90avg 71
H27/08
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
83-105
83
105
-22
67avg 71
A29/08
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
78-59
78
59
+19
74avg 71
A30/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
81-87
81
87
-6
72avg 71
H01/09
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
71-74
71
74
-3
64avg 71
A03/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
79-85
79
85
-6
77avg 71
A06/09
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#49
L
80-97
80
97
-17
no box
A28/11
World Cup
Slovenia
#44
L
83-94
83
94
-11
no box
H01/12
World Cup
Estonia
#58
L
77-88
77
88
-11
no box
H27/02
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-14
12-19
21-18
19-21
21-26
27-23
24-23
18-21
17-27
25-32
24-25
17-21
19-13
16-17
26-17
17-12
15-18
19-22
31-24
16-23
21-14
18-19
14-21
18-20
23-20
19-17
13-26
24-22
22-27
24-20
17-27
17-23
16-31
26-18
22-24
19-21
22-22
14-24
22-11
19-31
167.3Avg total
80.8Scored
86.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)80.093.0173.0-13.00%
Season at home (2)80.091.0171.0-11.00%
Season away (1)80.097.0177.0-17.00%
Last 10 (10)80.886.5167.3-5.720%
Last 5 (5)78.087.6165.6-9.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)74.281.5155.7-7.325%
vs Similar ◀ (5)82.091.4173.4-9.40%
vs Weaker (13)84.273.9158.1+10.269%
This opponent (Estonia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -3.1-3.1
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -3.1-3.1
EstoniaSweden
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
EstoniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Macedonia
#15
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H21/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
43-60
43
60
-17
A24/02
EuroBasket
Serbia
#6
L
29-56
29
56
-27
A27/08
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H29/08
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
54-36
54
36
+18
A30/08
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
27-46
27
46
-19
H01/09
EuroBasket
Portugal
#17
W
32-27
32
27
+5
H03/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#44
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A28/11
World Cup
Czech Republic
#49
L
53-58
53
58
-5
H01/12
World Cup
Sweden
#47
W
46-36
46
36
+10
A27/02
World Cup
83.7Avg total
40.3Scored
43.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.341.479.7-3.140%-
Last 30 at home (16)38.139.877.9-1.744%-
Last 30 away (14)38.643.281.8-4.636%-
Last 10 (10)40.343.483.7-3.150%-
Last 5 (5)39.441.080.4-1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (21)36.842.178.9-5.433%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)42.442.885.2-0.440%-
vs Weaker (4)41.535.877.2+5.875%-
This opponent (Sweden) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SwedenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Montenegro
#19
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H23/02
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
L
48-49
48
49
-1
H27/08
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
42-59
42
59
-17
A29/08
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
35-30
35
30
+5
A30/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
34-40
34
40
-6
H01/09
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A03/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
W
42-37
42
37
+5
A06/09
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#49
L
46-47
46
47
-1
A28/11
World Cup
Slovenia
#44
L
42-49
42
49
-7
H01/12
World Cup
Estonia
#58
L
36-46
36
46
-10
H27/02
World Cup
81.9Avg total
39.6Scored
42.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.438.978.3+0.547%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.937.675.6+0.336%-
Last 30 away (16)40.840.080.8+0.856%-
Last 10 (10)39.642.381.9-2.730%-
Last 5 (5)41.042.483.4-1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)38.141.879.9-3.833%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)41.845.086.8-3.220%-
vs Weaker (13)39.833.873.6+5.969%-
This opponent (Estonia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Estoniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Estonia: 73.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.4 pts a game · 17% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.117.5
49.9%
-35.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.98.8
31.5%
-26.4
🏀 Free throws17.312.4
71.7%
-12.4
They take 63.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Swedentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sweden: 76.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.318.1
49.9%
-36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.79.0
35.0%
-27.0
🏀 Free throws19.413.5
69.6%
-13.5
They take 62.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 01 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Estonia
WLWLLWLLLW
Sweden
LLLLLLWLLW
#58
League position
#47
-2.6
Net rating
-6.0
101.6
Offensive rating
104.0
104.3
Defensive rating
109.9
48.7%
Effective FG%
51.0%
48.9%
Opp. effective FG%
46.8%
18.4%
Turnover %
16.7%
30.4%
Off. rebound %
23.9%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.31
31.5%
3-point %
35.0%
76.0%
Assist %
68.6%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)40% · 20%
■ Estonia   ■ Sweden
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Estonia wins
1
Sweden wins
DateGameScore
27/02/26Sweden v Estonia77-88
27/02/23Sweden v Estonia71-72
11/11/22Estonia v Sweden82-87
Estonialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/26ASweden88-77
01/12/25HCzech Republic92-97
28/11/25ASlovenia94-93 OT
03/09/25HPortugal65-68
01/09/25HTurkey64-84
30/08/25ACzech Republic89-75
29/08/25HLatvia70-72
27/08/25ASerbia64-98
24/02/25ALithuania75-82
21/02/25HNorth Macedonia84-65
Swedenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/26HEstonia77-88
01/12/25HSlovenia83-94
28/11/25ACzech Republic80-97
06/09/25ATurkey79-85
03/09/25ALithuania71-74
01/09/25HMontenegro81-87
30/08/25AGreat Britain78-59
29/08/25AGermany83-105
27/08/25HFinland90-93
23/02/25HMontenegro86-83 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Estonia
World Cup 2027
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeL0%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%0%100%
Points / game91.392.091.0
Allowed / game89.097.085.0
Point differential+2.3-5.0+6.0
Avg total180.3189.0176.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %33%0%50%
Sweden
World Cup 2027
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLL0%
HomeLL0%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game80.080.080.0
Allowed / game93.091.097.0
Point differential-13.0-11.0-17.0
Avg total173.0171.0177.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Jordan330100%82.355.7+26.7
2 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
3 Croatia770100%94.369.6+24.7
4 Ivory Coast220100%93.069.5+23.5
5 Spain330100%83.363.7+19.7
6 Canada330100%100.382.7+17.7
7 Uruguay330100%79.362.0+17.3
8 Turkey330100%86.769.7+17.0
9 Angola220100%86.570.0+16.5
10 Brazil330100%84.770.7+14.0
11 Australia440100%87.275.5+11.8
12 Guinea330100%72.360.7+11.7
13 Mali220100%85.075.0+10.0
14 Poland330100%86.381.0+5.3
15 Colombia220100%83.078.0+5.0
16 Japan43175%82.074.0+8.0
17 Finland43175%78.576.5+2.0
18 Ukraine75271%80.174.7+5.4
19 Argentina32167%76.359.3+17.0
20 Slovenia32167%95.378.7+16.7
21 South Sudan32167%81.364.7+16.7
22 Germany32167%86.775.3+11.3
23 Greece32167%77.366.3+11.0
24 Italy32167%83.773.0+10.7
25 Portugal32167%83.373.3+10.0
26 Iran32167%80.070.7+9.3
27 Lebanon32167%84.074.7+9.3
28 Qatar32167%86.377.0+9.3
29 Mexico32167%91.084.0+7.0
30 Saudi Arabia32167%73.367.3+6.0
31 Tunisia32167%74.770.0+4.7
32 France32167%76.372.3+4.0
33 Estonia32167%91.389.0+2.3
34 Cameroon32167%71.369.7+1.7
35 Jamaica32167%95.093.7+1.3
36 Serbia32167%80.780.0+0.7
37 Iceland32167%83.783.7+0.0
38 Cape Verde32167%82.086.7-4.7
39 Montenegro32167%69.774.3-4.7
40 Czech Republic32167%84.390.3-6.0
41 Netherlands85362%81.276.1+5.1
42 Switzerland138562%74.267.8+6.4
43 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
44 Hungary74357%81.174.7+6.4
45 Romania116555%76.276.8-0.6
46 Senegal21150%89.578.0+11.5
47 Philippines42250%78.569.8+8.8
48 New Zealand42250%81.074.0+7.0
49 Austria126650%84.979.5+5.4
50 Dominican Republic21150%90.087.0+3.0
51 South Korea42250%76.876.8+0.0
52 China42250%84.885.8-1.0
53 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
54 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
55 D.R. Congo21150%73.087.5-14.5
56 Latvia31233%82.079.3+2.7
57 Israel31233%78.076.0+2.0
58 Bosnia & Herzegovina31233%75.775.7+0.0
59 Lithuania31233%85.085.3-0.3
60 Nigeria31233%69.375.3-6.0
61 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
62 Georgia31233%76.384.3-8.0
63 Great Britain31233%78.388.7-10.3
64 Panama31233%75.386.0-10.7
65 Bahamas31233%87.3100.3-13.0
66 Syria31233%61.781.3-19.7
67 Denmark72529%74.481.6-7.1
68 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
69 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
70 Chinese Taipei41325%76.883.8-7.0
71 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
72 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
73 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
74 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
75 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
76 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
77 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
78 Puerto Rico3030%89.095.0-6.0
79 Venezuela2020%81.087.0-6.0
80 Belgium4040%72.278.8-6.5
81 Egypt2020%74.584.5-10.0
82 Rwanda3030%68.378.7-10.3
83 Sweden3030%80.093.0-13.0
84 Chile3030%68.782.0-13.3
85 Libya3030%66.780.3-13.7
86 Iraq3030%69.786.0-16.3
87 Uganda2020%70.587.0-16.5
88 Madagascar2020%72.593.0-20.5
89 Cuba3030%66.089.7-23.7
90 India3030%60.385.0-24.7
91 Nicaragua1010%72.099.0-27.0
92 Guam4040%66.093.5-27.5
93 Cyprus3030%59.392.3-33.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Estonia2216171469
Sweden2315132879
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.