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Valparaiso vs Belmont Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 29 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 77-78
38-42 39-36
Position#170
Record10-10
FormWLLWW
Points / game70.8
Allowed / game69.7
vs
Belmont 🏆
USA
Position#25
Record18-4
FormWWWWW
Points / game81.0
Allowed / game71.1
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Valparaiso v Belmont
21 Jan 2027
VALP v BELM
upcoming
28 Jan 2026
VALP77
BELM78
12 Feb 2025
VALP101
BELM86
10 Feb 2024
VALP78
BELM96
10 Jan 2023
VALP59
BELM74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Belmont winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northwestern
#251
L
70-86
70
86
-16
A17/12
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
79-85
79
85
-6
H21/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
48-58
48
58
-10
A30/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
70-75
70
75
-5
A01/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
66-59
66
59
+7
H04/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
77-71
77
71
+6
H08/01
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
79-92
79
92
-13
A10/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
74-78
74
78
-4
A14/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
54-44
54
44
+10
H17/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
69-63
69
63
+6
H22/01
NCAA
1H
2H
30-39
40-47
39-36
40-49
22-22
26-36
25-36
45-39
31-32
35-27
35-23
42-48
36-45
43-47
39-41
35-37
22-18
32-26
39-20
30-43
139.7Avg total
68.6Scored
71.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)70.869.7140.6+1.150%
Season at home (12)71.262.3133.6+8.975%
Season away (8)70.280.8151.0-10.512%
Last 10 (10)68.671.1139.7-2.540%
Last 5 (5)70.669.6140.2+1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)64.269.9134.1-5.740%
vs Similar (14)72.873.7146.5-0.950%
vs Weaker (6)77.563.5141.0+14.067%
This opponent (Belmont) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BelmontUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#362
W
83-78
83
78
+5
A17/12
NCAA
UC Irvine
#60
W
84-58
84
58
+26
A20/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
80-81 OT
80
81
-1
A30/12
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
88-78
88
78
+10
H02/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
67-68
67
68
-1
H04/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
78-65
78
65
+13
A08/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
78-76
78
76
+2
A10/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
78-74
78
74
+4
H14/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
73-68
73
68
+5
A18/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
80-69
80
69
+11
H24/01
NCAA
1H
2H
41-30
42-48
38-36
46-22
41-36
30-35
42-39
46-39
22-26
45-42
36-32
42-33
25-44
53-32
41-39
37-35
32-24
41-44
44-36
36-33
150.4Avg total
78.9Scored
71.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)81.071.1152.2+9.982%
Season at home (12)82.870.4153.2+12.483%
Season away (10)78.972.0150.9+6.980%
Last 10 (10)78.971.5150.4+7.480%
Last 5 (5)77.470.4147.8+7.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)50.057.0107.0-7.00%
vs Similar (10)80.073.6153.6+6.480%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)79.770.7150.4+9.079%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +0.6+0.61st half: +2.0+2.02nd half2nd half: -3.1-3.12nd half: +5.5+5.5
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +0.6+0.61st half: +2.0+2.02nd half2nd half: -3.1-3.12nd half: +5.5+5.5
ValparaisoBelmont
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northwestern
#251
L
30-39
30
39
-9
A17/12
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H21/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
D
22-22
22
22
+0
A30/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
25-36
25
36
-11
A01/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
31-32
31
32
-1
H04/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
35-23
35
23
+12
H08/01
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
36-45
36
45
-9
A10/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A14/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
22-18
22
18
+4
H17/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
39-20
39
20
+19
H22/01
NCAA
63.0Avg total
31.8Scored
31.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.531.364.8+2.257%-
Last 30 at home (16)33.627.961.6+5.769%-
Last 30 away (14)33.435.168.4-1.743%-
Last 10 (10)31.831.263.0+0.640%-
Last 5 (5)34.229.463.6+4.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)32.331.663.9+0.760%-
vs Similar (14)32.631.664.2+1.150%-
vs Weaker (6)37.530.067.5+7.567%-
This opponent (Belmont) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BelmontLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#362
W
41-30
41
30
+11
A17/12
NCAA
UC Irvine
#60
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A20/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A30/12
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H02/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
22-26
22
26
-4
H04/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A08/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
25-44
25
44
-19
A10/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H14/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
32-24
32
24
+8
A18/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H24/01
NCAA
70.4Avg total
36.2Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.033.869.9+2.277%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.931.868.7+5.181%-
Last 30 away (14)35.136.171.2-1.171%-
Last 10 (10)36.234.270.4+2.080%-
Last 5 (5)35.635.070.6+0.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)30.021.051.0+9.0100%-
vs Similar (10)37.334.071.3+3.370%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)35.734.470.1+1.379%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Valparaiso wins
7
Belmont wins
DateGameScore
14/01/26Belmont v Valparaiso78-74
13/02/25Valparaiso v Belmont101-86
15/01/25Belmont v Valparaiso71-64
07/03/24Belmont v Valparaiso86-61
10/02/24Valparaiso v Belmont78-96
02/12/23Belmont v Valparaiso77-68
11/01/23Valparaiso v Belmont59-74
02/12/22Belmont v Valparaiso76-64
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/01/26HSouthern Illinois69-63
17/01/26HNorthern Iowa54-44
14/01/26ABelmont74-78
10/01/26AMurray State79-92
08/01/26HIllinois State77-71
04/01/26HIllinois (Chi.)66-59
01/01/26ASouthern Illinois70-75
30/12/25ANorthern Iowa48-58
21/12/25HMurray State79-85
17/12/25ANorthwestern70-86
Belmontlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/01/26HIllinois State80-69
18/01/26ASouthern Illinois73-68
14/01/26HValparaiso78-74
10/01/26ADrake78-76
08/01/26ANorthern Iowa78-65
04/01/26HSouthern Illinois67-68
02/01/26HBradley88-78
30/12/25AIndiana State80-81 OT
20/12/25AUC Irvine84-58
17/12/25AEvansville83-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW50%
HomeLWWWW75%
AwayLLLLL12%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20128
Win %50%75%12%
Points / game70.871.270.2
Allowed / game69.762.380.8
Point differential+1.1+8.9-10.5
Avg total140.6133.6151.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%33%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)67% (3)0% (3)
Overtime %5%0%12%
Belmont
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW82%
HomeWWLWW83%
AwayWLWWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221210
Win %82%83%80%
Points / game81.082.878.9
Allowed / game71.170.472.0
Point differential+9.9+12.4+6.9
Avg total152.2153.2150.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)67% (3)75% (4)
Overtime %5%0%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont2218482%81.071.1+9.9
2 Murray State2116576%87.378.6+8.8
3 Illinois State2114767%77.867.0+10.8
4 Bradley2214864%77.773.3+4.4
5 Northern Iowa2213959%67.060.7+6.3
6 Illinois (Chi.)22121055%75.570.1+5.4
7 Drake22121055%77.472.4+5.0
8 Valparaiso20101050%70.869.7+1.1
9 Southern Illinois2191243%75.072.1+2.8
10 Indiana State2291341%75.575.2+0.3
11 Evansville2151624%67.874.2-6.4
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Valparaiso383977
Belmont423678
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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