FC Porto vs Braga Result & Analysis

FC Porto will host Braga on 8 November 2026 in the LPB, with the Pythia model designating Porto as the favourite, assigning them a 78% chance to win largely because of their 4-1 record, 93.4 points per game and 86.0 allowed, placing them fourth in the league, while Braga also sits 4-1 but with 91.4 points per game and 79.2 allowed, a second-place position. Porto's home form is spotless, 2-0 at home with 93.0 points per game and 84.0 allowed, and they have won three of their last five games, though a recent 64-81 loss to Joventut Badalona at home and a 76-78 loss away to Ovarense temper the narrative; they also beat CAB Madeira 93-82 at home. Braga's road record is 1-1, 81.5 points per game and 83.5 allowed, but they have won four of five games overall, including a 98-86 win over Sporting CP at home, an 80-71 away win over CD Povoa, and a 91-72 home win over Vitoria. In past meetings, Porto has won all three encounters, most recently 82-68 on 18 April 2026. Pythia projects a 91-82 scoreline, a total of 173.1 points, a 44% chance that Porto covers the -10.5 spread, a 63% chance of the over on 167.5, and a 4% probability of overtime. The game will hinge on Porto's ability to maintain their defensive edge against Braga's high-scoring offence.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Porto winWon

77.1%fair 1.30

Best odds1.22

Implied77.4%

Edge-0.3pp

Braga winLost

22.9%fair 4.36

Best odds4.65

Implied22.6%

Edge+0.3pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 07:12 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

FC Porto

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormPorto

Date

Competition

Benfica

87-63

+24

91avg 80

H12/06

LPB

Benfica

75-71

63avg 80

H14/06

LPB

CA Queluz

110-93

110

+17

107avg 80

A02/10

LPB

Bonn

#14

74-78

-4

65avg 80

A07/10

Champions League

Benfica

93-86

80avg 80

H11/10

LPB

Esgueira

#12

95-91

91avg 80

A16/10

LPB

Bnei Herzliya

#47

86-74

+12

81avg 80

A21/10

Champions League

CAB Madeira

#10

93-82

+11

90avg 80

H25/10

LPB

Ovarense

76-78

-2

66avg 80

A31/10

LPB

Joventut Badalona

64-81

-17

no box

H03/11

Champions League

27-13

20-22

17-14

23-14

18-17

19-18

18-22

20-14

26-20

28-23

29-28

27-22

16-25

16-18

16-19

26-16

16-26

24-19

32-27

21-14

25-27

24-19

22-14

24-31

22-16

25-13

16-27

23-18

26-15

22-20

18-21

27-26

12-23

24-15

20-17

20-23

17-14

6-26

16-11

25-30

165.0Avg total

85.3Scored

79.7Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (5)	93.4	86.0	179.4	+7.4	80%
Season at home (2)	93.0	84.0	177.0	+9.0	100%
Season away (3)	93.7	87.3	181.0	+6.3	67%
Last 10 (10)	85.3	79.7	165.0	+5.6	70%
Last 5 (5)	82.8	81.2	164.0	+1.6	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	82.0	79.8	161.8	+2.2	62%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	82.0	79.0	161.0	+3.0	67%
vs Weaker (16)	90.6	80.5	171.1	+10.1	75%

This opponent (Braga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Braga

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormBraga

Date

Competition

Benfica

77-108

108

-31

66avg 75

A11/04

LPB

FC Porto

68-82

-14

58avg 75

H18/04

LPB

Ovarense

74-67

66avg 75

A25/04

LPB

Benfica

72-90

-18

62avg 75

A09/05

LPB

Benfica

79-94

-15

68avg 75

H13/05

LPB

Ovarense

83-96

-13

71avg 75

A03/10

LPB

Portimonense

#11

105-71

105

+34

107avg 75

H11/10

LPB

Vitoria

91-72

+19

98avg 75

H18/10

LPB

CD Povoa

80-71

75avg 75

A25/10

LPB

Sporting CP

98-86

+12

no box

H01/11

LPB

17-28

15-26

27-30

18-24

21-17

19-29

12-21

16-15

28-21

16-14

18-19

12-13

19-24

15-22

24-24

14-20

18-22

23-33

20-17

19-26

9-26

20-23

35-21

28-18

33-21

17-18

27-14

20-12

23-18

26-22

22-20

20-22

23-14

19-14

18-21

24-23

22-19

20-21

32-23

166.4Avg total

82.7Scored

83.7Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (5)	91.4	79.2	170.6	+12.2	80%
Season at home (3)	98.0	76.3	174.3	+21.7	100%
Season away (2)	81.5	83.5	165.0	-2.0	50%
Last 10 (10)	82.7	83.7	166.4	-1.0	50%
Last 5 (5)	91.4	79.2	170.6	+12.2	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)	74.2	87.2	161.3	-13.0	17%
vs Similar ◀ (10)	82.6	83.6	166.2	-1.0	40%
vs Weaker (8)	88.8	73.9	162.6	+14.9	88%

This opponent (FC Porto) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 164.5Actual: Under 164.5

Over 164.5

66.2%

@ 1.86+16.9pp

Under 164.5

33.8%

@ 2.25-16.9pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.86

BetVictor

1.80

Betano

1.72

1xBet

1.67

Bet365

1.57

Under

Bet365

2.25

Betano

1.98

Marathon Be

1.91

BetVictor

1.88

1xBet

1.83

Over/Under 169.5 · main lineActual: Under 169.5

Over 169.5

54.5%

@ 2.15+6.7pp

Under 169.5

45.5%

@ 1.85-6.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.15

Bet365

1.95

SBO

1.91

Marathon Be

1.89

WilliamHill

1.85

Under

WilliamHill

1.85

SBO

1.76

Marathon Be

1.75

Bet365

1.74

1xBet

1.67

Over/Under 174.5Actual: Under 174.5

Over 174.5

42.4%

@ 2.42+1.3pp

Under 174.5

57.6%

@ 1.60-1.3pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.42

Bet365

2.25

1xBet

1.93

Under

1xBet

1.60

Bet365

1.57

Betano

1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

FC Porto total 86.5Actual: FC Porto under 86.5

Over 86.5

63.7%

@ 1.74+6.4pp

Under 86.5

36.3%

@ 2.25-6.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathon Be

1.74

Betano

1.62

Bet365

1.57

1xBet

1.50

Under

Bet365

2.25

Betano

2.12

1xBet

2.06

Marathon Be

1.91

FC Porto total 90.5 · main lineActual: FC Porto under 90.5

Over 90.5

48.1%

@ 2.15+3.8pp

Under 90.5

51.9%

@ 1.83-3.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.15

1xBet

1.95

Bet365

1.83

Under

Bet365

1.83

Betano

1.60

1xBet

1.55

FC Porto total 94.5Actual: FC Porto under 94.5

Over 94.5

32.8%

@ 2.81-1.0pp

Under 94.5

67.2%

@ 1.42+1.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.81

Bet365

2.75

Betano

2.57

Under

Betano

1.42

Bet365

1.40

1xBet

1.29

Braga total 74.5Actual: Braga over 74.5

Over 74.5

75.3%

@ 1.50+9.0pp

Under 74.5

24.7%

@ 2.75-9.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.50

Bet365

1.40

1xBet

1.32

Under

Bet365

2.75

1xBet

2.65

Betano

2.37

Braga total 78.5 · main lineActual: Braga under 78.5

Over 78.5

61.4%

@ 1.93+11.4pp

Under 78.5

38.6%

@ 1.88-11.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.93

BetVictor

1.88

Bet365

1.83

Marathon Be

1.76

1xBet

1.61

Under

Marathon Be

1.88

1xBet

1.86

Bet365

1.83

BetVictor

1.80

Betano

1.75

Braga total 82.5Actual: Braga under 82.5

Over 82.5

45.9%

@ 2.40+7.1pp

Under 82.5

54.1%

@ 1.52-7.1pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.40

Betano

2.37

1xBet

2.17

Under

Bet365

1.52

Betano

1.50

1xBet

1.45

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread FC Porto -14.5Actual: Braga +14.5

POR -14.5

29.2%

@ 2.80-8.3pp

BRAG +14.5

70.8%

@ 1.50+8.3pp

Best 5 market prices

POR

1xBet

2.80

Bet365

2.50

Betano

2.37

BRAG

Betano

1.50

Bet365

1.50

1xBet

1.30

Spread FC Porto -11.5 · main lineActual: Braga +11.5

POR -11.5

39.0%

@ 2.09-10.8pp

BRAG +11.5

61.0%

@ 1.80+10.8pp

Best 5 market prices

POR

1xBet

2.09

Betfair

2.00

Marathon Be

1.97

Betano

1.95

Bet365

1.95

BRAG

Betfair

1.80

Pinnacle

1.79

SBO

1.76

Bet365

1.74

Betano

1.72

Spread FC Porto -8.5Actual: Braga +8.5

POR -8.5

49.8%

@ 1.80-3.1pp

BRAG +8.5

50.2%

@ 2.12+3.1pp

Best 5 market prices

POR

Betfair

1.80

Marathon Be

1.73

1xBet

1.67

Betano

1.65

Bet365

1.64

BRAG

Bet365

2.12

Betano

2.05

Betfair

1.91

Marathon Be

1.91

1xBet

1.87

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

FC PortoBraga

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	21.7	20.3	42.0	+1.4	60%	37%
Last 30 at home (14)	22.7	17.6	40.4	+5.1	86%	29%
Last 30 away (16)	20.8	22.7	43.5	-1.9	38%	44%
Last 10 (10)	20.5	19.6	40.1	+0.9	60%	20%
Last 5 (5)	20.4	19.0	39.4	+1.4	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	18.8	20.2	39.0	-1.5	50%	12%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	21.2	21.3	42.5	-0.2	50%	50%
vs Weaker (16)	23.4	20.0	43.4	+3.4	69%	44%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	20.0	21.4	41.3	-1.4	40%	53%
Last 30 at home (16)	19.1	19.5	38.6	-0.4	50%	44%
Last 30 away (14)	20.9	23.5	44.4	-2.6	29%	64%
Last 10 (10)	21.4	21.3	42.7	+0.1	50%	60%
Last 5 (5)	22.2	20.2	42.4	+2.0	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)	19.7	23.8	43.4	-4.1	25%	67%
vs Similar ◀ (10)	19.7	21.4	41.1	-1.7	50%	60%
vs Weaker (8)	20.8	17.8	38.5	+3.0	50%	25%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	22.7	20.7	43.4	+2.0	67%	47%
Last 30 at home (14)	21.9	21.0	42.9	+0.9	71%	36%
Last 30 away (16)	23.4	20.4	43.9	+3.0	62%	56%
Last 10 (10)	20.8	19.3	40.1	+1.5	70%	30%
Last 5 (5)	20.2	18.6	38.8	+1.6	80%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	18.1	21.9	40.0	-3.8	38%	25%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	23.7	22.7	46.3	+1.0	50%	50%
vs Weaker (16)	24.7	19.4	44.1	+5.3	88%	56%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	19.0	21.1	40.1	-2.1	37%	30%
Last 30 at home (16)	19.6	21.5	41.1	-1.9	38%	38%
Last 30 away (14)	18.3	20.6	38.9	-2.4	36%	21%
Last 10 (10)	19.3	21.1	40.4	-1.8	50%	20%
Last 5 (5)	22.0	19.6	41.6	+2.4	80%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)	17.2	22.3	39.6	-5.1	25%	33%
vs Similar ◀ (10)	19.2	22.1	41.3	-2.9	30%	30%
vs Weaker (8)	21.4	18.0	39.4	+3.4	62%	25%

FC PortoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Benfica

47-35

+12

H12/06

LPB

Benfica

37-35

H14/06

LPB

CA Queluz

54-43

+11

A02/10

LPB

Bonn

#14

32-43

-11

A07/10

Champions League

Benfica

40-45

-5

H11/10

LPB

Esgueira

#12

49-46

A16/10

LPB

Bnei Herzliya

#47

47-29

+18

A21/10

Champions League

CAB Madeira

#10

48-35

+13

H25/10

LPB

Ovarense

36-38

-2

A31/10

LPB

Joventut Badalona

23-40

-17

H03/11

Champions League

80.2Avg total

41.3Scored

38.9Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 84.75
Last 30 (30)	44.4	41.0	85.5	+3.4	63%	50%
Last 30 at home (14)	44.6	38.6	83.3	+6.0	79%	43%
Last 30 away (16)	44.2	43.1	87.4	+1.1	50%	56%
Last 10 (10)	41.3	38.9	80.2	+2.4	60%	30%
Last 5 (5)	40.6	37.6	78.2	+3.0	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	36.9	42.1	79.0	-5.2	25%	25%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	44.8	44.0	88.8	+0.8	50%	67%
vs Weaker (16)	48.1	39.4	87.4	+8.7	88%	56%

This opponent (Braga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

BragaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Benfica

32-54

-22

A11/04

LPB

FC Porto

40-46

-6

H18/04

LPB

Ovarense

44-35

A25/04

LPB

Benfica

34-46

-12

A09/05

LPB

Benfica

36-44

-8

H13/05

LPB

Ovarense

28-52

-24

A03/10

LPB

Portimonense

#11

61-39

+22

H11/10

LPB

Vitoria

43-30

+13

H18/10

LPB

CD Povoa

43-36

A25/10

LPB

Sporting CP

46-42

H01/11

LPB

83.1Avg total

40.7Scored

42.4Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 84.75
Last 30 (30)	39.0	42.5	81.4	-3.5	43%	47%
Last 30 at home (16)	38.8	41.0	79.8	-2.2	44%	44%
Last 30 away (14)	39.2	44.1	83.4	-4.9	43%	50%
Last 10 (10)	40.7	42.4	83.1	-1.7	50%	40%
Last 5 (5)	44.2	39.8	84.0	+4.4	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)	36.9	46.1	83.0	-9.2	17%	58%
vs Similar ◀ (10)	38.9	43.5	82.4	-4.6	50%	50%
vs Weaker (8)	42.1	35.8	77.9	+6.4	75%	25%

This opponent (FC Porto) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Braga win

POR win

no forecast

@ 1.36

BRAG win

no forecast

@ 3.45

1st half Spread FC Porto -5.5 · main lineActual: Braga +5.5

POR -5.5

no forecast

@ 1.91

BRAG +5.5

no forecast

@ 1.90

1st half Over/Under 84.75 · main lineActual: Over 84.75

Over

no forecast

@ 1.80

Under

no forecast

@ 1.80

FC Porto 1st half total 44.5 · main lineActual: FC Porto over 44.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.93

Under

no forecast

@ 1.89

Braga 1st half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Braga over 38.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.87

Under

no forecast

@ 1.94

1st half: POR + total 84.5

POR & over

no forecast

@ 2.60

POR & under

no forecast

@ 2.65

1st half: Draw + total 84.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 31.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 31.00

1st half: BRAG + total 84.5

BRAG & over

no forecast

@ 6.25

BRAG & under

no forecast

@ 6.25

1st half Over/Under 83.5Actual: Over 83.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.00

Under

no forecast

@ 1.91

1st half Over/Under 86Actual: Over 86

Over

no forecast

@ 1.91

Under

no forecast

@ 1.87

1st half Spread FC Porto -6.5Actual: Braga +6.5

POR -6.5

no forecast

@ 2.00

BRAG +6.5

no forecast

@ 1.79

1st half Spread FC Porto -4.5Actual: Braga +4.5

POR -4.5

no forecast

@ 1.80

BRAG +4.5

no forecast

@ 2.05

1st half Over/Under 82.25Actual: Over 82.25

Over

no forecast

@ 1.72

Under

no forecast

@ 1.91

1st half Over/Under 87.5Actual: Over 87.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.55

Under

no forecast

@ 1.60

1st half Spread FC Porto -7.5Actual: Braga +7.5

POR -7.5

no forecast

@ 2.22

BRAG +7.5

no forecast

@ 1.65

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: FC Porto (regulation)

POR

no forecast

@ 1.40

Draw

no forecast

@ 18.00

BRAG

no forecast

@ 3.40

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	20.0	19.4	39.4	+0.6	53%	33%
Last 30 at home (14)	19.9	19.1	39.0	+0.7	57%	29%
Last 30 away (16)	20.1	19.7	39.8	+0.4	50%	38%
Last 10 (10)	20.4	20.0	40.4	+0.4	60%	30%
Last 5 (5)	18.4	18.0	36.4	+0.4	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	19.9	20.0	39.9	-0.1	50%	25%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	18.5	18.7	37.2	-0.2	50%	17%
vs Weaker (16)	20.6	19.4	40.1	+1.2	56%	44%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	21.0	21.3	42.3	-0.3	50%	47%
Last 30 at home (16)	21.3	21.2	42.6	+0.1	50%	50%
Last 30 away (14)	20.6	21.4	42.1	-0.8	50%	43%
Last 10 (10)	20.6	22.5	43.1	-1.9	20%	50%
Last 5 (5)	20.4	19.6	40.0	+0.8	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)	19.6	24.2	43.8	-4.7	17%	58%
vs Similar ◀ (10)	20.4	20.5	40.9	-0.1	60%	40%
vs Weaker (8)	23.9	18.0	41.9	+5.9	88%	38%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 38
Last 30 (30)	21.9	19.4	41.3	+2.5	67%	53%
Last 30 at home (14)	22.5	19.9	42.4	+2.6	71%	57%
Last 30 away (16)	21.3	19.0	40.3	+2.3	62%	50%
Last 10 (10)	23.6	20.8	44.4	+2.8	70%	70%
Last 5 (5)	23.8	25.6	49.4	-1.8	40%	100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	24.2	17.1	41.4	+7.1	88%	50%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	18.7	16.3	35.0	+2.3	83%	17%
vs Weaker (16)	21.9	21.7	43.6	+0.2	50%	69%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 38
Last 30 (30)	20.9	18.6	39.5	+2.3	63%	63%
Last 30 at home (16)	21.2	17.8	38.9	+3.4	75%	62%
Last 30 away (14)	20.6	19.6	40.2	+0.9	50%	64%
Last 10 (10)	21.4	18.8	40.2	+2.6	60%	60%
Last 5 (5)	26.8	19.8	46.6	+7.0	80%	100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)	17.7	16.8	34.5	+0.8	58%	33%
vs Similar ◀ (10)	23.3	19.6	42.9	+3.7	70%	70%
vs Weaker (8)	22.8	20.1	42.9	+2.6	62%	100%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 84
Last 30 (30)	41.9	38.8	80.7	+3.0	67%	37%
Last 30 at home (14)	42.4	39.0	81.4	+3.4	64%	36%
Last 30 away (16)	41.4	38.7	80.1	+2.8	69%	38%
Last 10 (10)	44.0	40.8	84.8	+3.2	60%	40%
Last 5 (5)	42.2	43.6	85.8	-1.4	20%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	44.1	37.1	81.2	+7.0	75%	38%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	37.2	35.0	72.2	+2.2	67%	0%
vs Weaker (16)	42.5	41.1	83.6	+1.4	62%	50%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 84
Last 30 (30)	41.9	40.0	81.9	+1.9	53%	40%
Last 30 at home (16)	42.5	39.0	81.5	+3.5	62%	50%
Last 30 away (14)	41.2	41.1	82.3	+0.1	43%	29%
Last 10 (10)	42.0	41.3	83.3	+0.7	50%	50%
Last 5 (5)	47.2	39.4	86.6	+7.8	100%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)	37.2	41.1	78.3	-3.8	17%	25%
vs Similar ◀ (10)	43.7	40.1	83.8	+3.6	70%	50%
vs Weaker (8)	46.6	38.1	84.8	+8.5	88%	50%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

POR win + total 169.5

🔒 Pro

BRAG win + total 169.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: POR leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: BRAG leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (POR:BRAG): POR wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 162.5	70.6%	1.60	Marathon Bet 1.62	1xBet 1.61	Betano 1.57	-	-	+14.6pp	Lost
Over 157.5	80.2%	1.39	Betano 1.39	-	-	-	-	+14.2pp	Lost
FC Porto over 81.5	80.1%	1.30	1xBet 1.30	-	-	-	-	+11.8pp	Lost
Over 159.5	76.6%	1.42	Betano 1.42	-	-	-	-	+11.8pp	Lost
Over 161.5	72.7%	1.53	Marathon Bet 1.56	Betano 1.52	Bet365 1.50	-	-	+11.2pp	Lost
Braga over 75.5	72.1%	1.48	Betano 1.57	1xBet 1.38	-	-	-	+11.1pp	Won
Braga over 73.5	78.3%	1.34	Betano 1.42	1xBet 1.27	-	-	-	+11.0pp	Won
Braga +16.5	76.5%	1.40	Bet365 1.43	Betano 1.38	-	-	-	+10.9pp	Won
Over 158.5	78.5%	1.36	Betano 1.44	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	+10.6pp	Lost
Braga over 72.5	81.1%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	1xBet 1.28	-	-	-	+10.3pp	Won
Braga +17.5	79.1%	1.33	Betano 1.33	-	-	-	-	+10.2pp	Won
Over 156.5	81.9%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+10.0pp	Won
FC Porto over 80.5	82.7%	1.25	1xBet 1.27	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	+9.6pp	Won
Braga +21.5	87.4%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+9.6pp	Won
Over 151.5	88.9%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+9.4pp	Won
Braga over 67.5	91.6%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+9.3pp	Won
Braga over 74.5	75.3%	1.41	Betano 1.50	Bet365 1.40	1xBet 1.32	-	-	+9.0pp	Won
Braga +15.5	73.8%	1.39	Betano 1.44	Bet365 1.43	1xBet 1.30	-	-	+8.8pp	Won
Braga +18.5	81.4%	1.26	Betano 1.26	-	-	-	-	+8.8pp	Won
FC Porto over 83.5	74.1%	1.38	Betano 1.45	1xBet 1.31	-	-	-	+8.7pp	Lost
FC Porto over 77.5	89.2%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+8.7pp	Won
Braga over 69.5	88.1%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+8.6pp	Won
Braga +14.5	70.8%	1.43	Betano 1.50	Bet365 1.50	1xBet 1.30	-	-	+8.3pp	Won
Braga over 70.5	86.0%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+8.2pp	Won
Braga over 65.5	94.2%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+8.1pp	Won
Braga +20.5	85.6%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+7.8pp	Won
FC Porto over 82.5	77.2%	1.31	Bet365 1.31	1xBet 1.30	-	-	-	+7.8pp	Lost
Braga +26.5	93.9%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+7.8pp	Won
Braga over 68.5	89.9%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+7.6pp	Won
Over 160.5	74.7%	1.43	Marathon Bet 1.51	Betano 1.47	Bet365 1.30	-	-	+7.6pp	Lost
Braga over 63.5	96.2%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+7.5pp	Won
FC Porto over 75.5	92.4%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+7.4pp	Won
FC Porto over 73.5	94.8%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+7.3pp	Won
FC Porto over 71.5	96.5%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+7.2pp	Won
Braga over 61.5	97.5%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+7.1pp	Won
FC Porto +13.5	96.5%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+7.1pp	Won
Over 146.5	93.7%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+7.1pp	Won
Braga +31.5	97.2%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+7.0pp	Won
Braga over 66.5	93.0%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
Over 153.5	86.4%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
FC Porto over 78.5	87.3%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+6.8pp	Won
FC Porto over 76.5	90.9%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+6.5pp	Won
Over 141.5	96.7%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+6.5pp	Won
FC Porto over 70.5	97.2%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.5pp	Won
FC Porto over 84.5	70.8%	1.41	Betano 1.45	Bet365 1.41	1xBet 1.36	-	-	+6.4pp	Lost
FC Porto over 72.5	95.7%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+6.4pp	Won
FC Porto over 69.5	97.8%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.3pp	Won
FC Porto over 79.5	85.1%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+6.3pp	Won
Braga over 59.5	98.5%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+6.2pp	Won
FC Porto over 74.5	93.7%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+6.2pp	Won
Braga +36.5	98.8%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+6.0pp	Won
FC Porto under 95.5	70.7%	1.38	Betano 1.39	1xBet 1.38	-	-	-	+5.9pp	Won
Over 143.5	95.7%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+5.5pp	Won
Over 148.5	92.0%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
FC Porto +8.5	92.2%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+5.1pp	Won
Over 145.5	94.4%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+4.8pp	Won
FC Porto +14.5	97.0%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.7pp	Won
Over 155.5	83.5%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+4.0pp	Won
FC Porto under 99.5	82.7%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+3.8pp	Won
FC Porto +9.5	93.3%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Won
Over 150.5	90.0%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
Under 195.5	92.2%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+2.8pp	Won
FC Porto under 98.5	80.0%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+2.3pp	Won
FC Porto under 96.5	74.0%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+2.2pp	Won
Braga under 96.5	92.0%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+1.8pp	Won
FC Porto (regulation)	74.7%	1.20	1xBet 1.22	Marathon Bet 1.22	Betano 1.17	-	-	+1.7pp	Won
Overtime: no	96.0%	1.02	Betano 1.02	-	-	-	-	+1.5pp	-
Under 190.5	87.2%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+1.1pp	Won
Under 193.5	90.5%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+1.1pp	Won
FC Porto +3.5	83.8%	1.12	Bet365 1.12	-	-	-	-	+0.7pp	Won
Under 185.5	80.2%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+0.7pp	Won
Braga under 94.5	89.0%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+0.3pp	Won
FC Porto -1.5	74.8%	1.23	Betano 1.25	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	+0.0pp	Won
FC Porto +4.5	85.9%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	-0.2pp	Won
FC Porto -2.5	71.1%	1.28	Betano 1.28	-	-	-	-	-0.3pp	Won
FC Porto win	77.1%	1.18	1xBet 1.22	Marathon Bet 1.21	WilliamHill 1.20	BetVictor 1.18	Betfair 1.17	-0.3pp	Won
Under 180.5	70.9%	1.30	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	-	-0.5pp	Won
Braga under 92.5	85.2%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	-0.9pp	Won
Under 191.5	88.4%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	-1.0pp	Won
Under 188.5	84.7%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	-1.4pp	Won
Braga under 90.5	80.6%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	-1.7pp	Won
Braga under 89.5	77.9%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	-2.6pp	Won
Under 183.5	76.7%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	-2.8pp	Won
Braga under 88.5	75.0%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	-3.8pp	Won
Under 186.5	81.8%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	-4.3pp	Won
Under 181.5	72.9%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	-6.6pp	Won
Over 161	74.2%	1.53	Marathon Bet 1.53	-	-	-	-	-	Lost
Over 162	72.1%	1.58	Marathon Bet 1.58	-	-	-	-	-	Lost

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

FC Portotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

FC Porto: 86.1 points a game scored

🏀🏀43%

🏀🏀🏀40%

🏀17%

🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 43% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 40% of the points

🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 17% of the points

League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game

49%

32%

19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.1	18.4	49.6%	51.2%	36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	31.5	11.5	36.5%	31.6%	34.5
🏀 Free throws	20.0	14.8	74.0%	71.6%	14.8

They take 68.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Bragatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Braga: 81.7 points a game scored

🏀🏀45%

🏀🏀🏀36%

🏀19%

🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 45% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 36% of the points

🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 19% of the points

League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game

49%

32%

19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.8	18.4	50.0%	51.2%	36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.4	9.7	34.2%	31.6%	29.1
🏀 Free throws	21.9	15.8	72.1%	71.6%	15.8

They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.8	19.7	49.5%	51.2%	39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.3	9.1	33.3%	31.6%	27.3
🏀 Free throws	18.7	13.6	72.7%	71.6%	13.6

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.4	17.7	50.0%	51.2%	35.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.9	8.7	31.2%	31.6%	26.1
🏀 Free throws	23.3	14.7	63.1%	71.6%	14.7

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.8	20.3	53.7%	51.2%	40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.2	10.3	34.3%	31.6%	31.0
🏀 Free throws	21.0	14.5	69.2%	71.6%	14.5

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.6	17.6	49.4%	51.2%	35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.8	9.6	32.1%	31.6%	28.7
🏀 Free throws	21.4	15.7	73.5%	71.6%	15.7

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.6	18.6	48.2%	51.2%	37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.0	8.8	32.6%	31.6%	26.4
🏀 Free throws	21.6	14.7	68.1%	71.6%	14.7

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.3	18.9	49.5%	51.2%	37.9
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.2	8.6	31.7%	31.6%	25.9
🏀 Free throws	22.0	15.0	67.9%	71.6%	15.0

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

FC Porto

LLWWWWLWWW

Braga

WWWWLLLWLL

League position

+6.5

Net rating

+6.2

95.9

Offensive rating

91.8

89.5

Defensive rating

85.6

52.0%

Effective FG%

50.5%

49.7%

Opp. effective FG%

48.6%

14.8%

Turnover %

18.0%

0.29

Free-throw rate

0.34

36.5%

3-point %

34.2%

60.2%

Assist %

72.2%

70%

Form (last 10/10)

50%

Profile

■ FC Porto ■ Braga

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

FC Porto wins

Braga wins

Date	Game	Score
18/04/26	Braga v FC Porto	68-82
03/01/26	FC Porto v Braga	98-79
10/12/23	FC Porto v Braga	86-72

FC Portolast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
03/11/26	H	Joventut Badalona	64-81
31/10/26	A	Ovarense	76-78
25/10/26	H	CAB Madeira	93-82
21/10/26	A	Bnei Herzliya	86-74
16/10/26	A	Esgueira	95-91
11/10/26	H	Benfica	93-86
07/10/26	A	Bonn	74-78
02/10/26	A	CA Queluz	110-93
14/06/26	H	Benfica	75-71
12/06/26	H	Benfica	87-63

Bragalast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
01/11/26	H	Sporting CP	98-86
25/10/26	A	CD Povoa	80-71
18/10/26	H	Vitoria	91-72
11/10/26	H	Portimonense	105-71
03/10/26	A	Ovarense	83-96
13/05/26	H	Benfica	79-94
09/05/26	A	Benfica	72-90
25/04/26	A	Ovarense	74-67
18/04/26	H	FC Porto	68-82
11/04/26	A	Benfica	77-108

📊 11. Overall Statistics

FC Porto

LPB 2026-27

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWWL	80%
Home	WW	100%
Away	WWL	67%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	5	2	3
Win %	80%	100%	67%
Points / game	93.4	93.0	93.7
Allowed / game	86.0	84.0	87.3
Point differential	+7.4	+9.0	+6.3
Avg total	179.4	177.0	181.0
Over 169.5	80%	100%	67%
Win by 10+	40%	50%	33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	50% (2)	-	50% (2)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Braga

LPB 2026-27

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWWWW	80%
Home	WWW	100%
Away	LW	50%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	5	3	2
Win %	80%	100%	50%
Points / game	91.4	98.0	81.5
Allowed / game	79.2	76.3	83.5
Point differential	+12.2	+21.7	-2.0
Avg total	170.6	174.3	165.0
Over 169.5	60%	67%	50%
Win by 10+	60%	100%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	-	-	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Benfica	6	5	1	83%	91.5	75.5	+16.0
2	Ovarense	6	5	1	83%	83.7	76.2	+7.5
3	Braga	5	4	1	80%	91.4	79.2	+12.2
4	FC Porto	5	4	1	80%	93.4	86.0	+7.4
5	CD Povoa	6	4	2	67%	76.0	72.2	+3.8
6	Oliveirense	5	3	2	60%	92.4	91.2	+1.2
7	CA Queluz	5	3	2	60%	89.2	92.2	-3.0
8	Sporting CP	6	3	3	50%	81.8	75.5	+6.3
9	Vitoria	6	2	4	33%	69.3	82.3	-13.0
10	CAB Madeira	6	1	5	17%	86.2	89.3	-3.2
11	Portimonense	6	0	6	0%	75.7	87.8	-12.2
12	Esgueira	6	0	6	0%	77.7	97.8	-20.2

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
FC Porto	20	29	15	17	81
Braga	21	29	13	13	76

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FC Porto vs Braga Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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