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FC Porto vs Esgueira Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 23 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 18:00
Scheduled
Position#2
Record6-1
FormWLLWW
Points / game91.6
Allowed / game81.6
FC Porto
Portugal
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.9/10
Around normal
5.7/10
Above normal
Esgueira
Portugal
Position#12
Record0-7
FormLLLLL
Points / game80.3
Allowed / game97.7
PortugalLPBRound 14· Pavilhão Dragão Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · FC Porto v Esgueira
23 Jan 2027
POR v ESGU
upcoming
25 Apr 2026
POR85
ESGU86
14 Dec 2024
POR94
ESGU83
27 Oct 2023
POR106
ESGU82
27 Jan 2023
POR94
ESGU73
13 Nov 2020
POR91
ESGU78
10 Nov 2019
POR76
ESGU70
05 Mar 2019
POR98
ESGU64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Porto win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Esgueira win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

FC PortoPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPorto
Date
Competition
CA Queluz
#8
W
110-93
110
93
+17
107avg 81
A02/10
LPB
Bonn
#14
L
74-78
74
78
-4
65avg 81
A07/10
Champions League
Benfica
#1
W
93-86
93
86
+7
80avg 81
H11/10
LPB
Esgueira
#12
W
95-91
95
91
+4
91avg 81
A16/10
LPB
Bnei Herzliya
#47
W
86-74
86
74
+12
81avg 81
A21/10
Champions League
CAB Madeira
#10
W
93-82
93
82
+11
90avg 81
H25/10
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
76-78
76
78
-2
66avg 81
A31/10
LPB
Joventut Badalona
#2
L
64-81
64
81
-17
no box
H03/11
Champions League
Braga
#6
W
81-76
81
76
+5
no box
H08/11
LPB
Vitoria
#9
W
93-65
93
65
+28
no box
A13/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-20
28-23
29-28
27-22
16-25
16-18
16-19
26-16
16-26
24-19
32-27
21-14
25-27
24-19
22-14
24-31
22-16
25-13
16-27
23-18
26-15
22-20
18-21
27-26
12-23
24-15
20-17
20-23
17-14
6-26
16-11
25-30
20-21
29-29
15-13
17-13
23-16
26-10
23-17
21-22
166.9Avg total
86.5Scored
80.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)91.681.6173.1+10.086%
Season at home (3)89.081.3170.3+7.7100%
Season away (4)93.581.8175.2+11.875%
Last 10 (10)86.580.4166.9+6.170%
Last 5 (5)81.476.4157.8+5.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)82.079.8161.8+2.262%
vs Similar (7)81.978.6160.4+3.371%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)91.678.3169.9+13.387%
This opponent (Esgueira) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EsgueiraPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormEsgueira
Date
Competition
FC Porto
#2
W
86-85
86
85
+1
74avg 65
A25/04
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
67-109
67
109
-42
58avg 65
A10/05
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
73-85
73
85
-12
66avg 65
H14/05
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
L
64-84
64
84
-20
28avg 65
H03/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
60-88
60
88
-28
38avg 65
A10/10
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
91-95
91
95
-4
80avg 65
H16/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#4
L
80-104
80
104
-24
40avg 65
A24/10
LPB
CA Queluz
#8
L
93-104
93
104
-11
75avg 65
H31/10
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
78-112
78
112
-34
no box
A07/11
LPB
Portimonense
#11
L
96-97 OT
96
97
-1
no box
A14/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-27
16-23
26-20
23-15
21-27
20-30
9-25
17-27
18-25
18-23
21-19
16-18
25-16
7-25
20-17
12-26
17-20
8-23
18-23
17-22
27-25
19-24
14-22
31-24
24-23
8-32
20-24
28-25
24-23
29-26
13-34
27-21
20-23
14-25
28-27
16-37
21-41
25-13
14-15
27-18
175.1Avg total
78.8Scored
96.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)80.397.7178.0-17.40%
Season at home (3)82.794.3177.0-11.70%
Season away (4)78.5100.2178.8-21.80%
Last 10 (10)78.896.3175.1-17.510%
Last 5 (5)87.6102.4190.0-14.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)80.192.6172.7-12.525%
vs Similar (6)88.392.8181.2-4.533%
vs Weaker (4)92.095.2187.2-3.250%
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: +3.2+3.2Q2: -8.0-8.0Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -4.3-4.3Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: -1.9-1.9
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: +3.2+3.2Q2: -8.0-8.0Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -4.3-4.3Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: -1.9-1.9
FC PortoEsgueira
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
FC PortoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CA Queluz
#8
W
54-43
54
43
+11
A02/10
LPB
Bonn
#14
L
32-43
32
43
-11
A07/10
Champions League
Benfica
#1
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H11/10
LPB
Esgueira
#12
W
49-46
49
46
+3
A16/10
LPB
Bnei Herzliya
#47
W
47-29
47
29
+18
A21/10
Champions League
CAB Madeira
#10
W
48-35
48
35
+13
H25/10
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A31/10
LPB
Joventut Badalona
#2
L
23-40
23
40
-17
H03/11
Champions League
Braga
#6
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H08/11
LPB
Vitoria
#9
W
49-26
49
26
+23
A13/11
LPB
82.2Avg total
42.7Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.640.685.2+4.063%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.939.484.3+5.573%-
Last 30 away (15)44.341.886.1+2.553%-
Last 10 (10)42.739.582.2+3.250%-
Last 5 (5)41.037.878.8+3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)36.942.179.0-5.225%-
vs Similar (7)45.444.990.3+0.643%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)48.337.886.1+10.593%-
This opponent (Esgueira) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EsgueiraLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
FC Porto
#2
L
37-50
37
50
-13
A25/04
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
41-57
41
57
-16
A10/05
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
36-48
36
48
-12
H14/05
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H03/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
25-43
25
43
-18
A10/10
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H16/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#4
L
32-55
32
55
-23
A24/10
LPB
CA Queluz
#8
W
53-49
53
49
+4
H31/10
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A07/11
LPB
Portimonense
#11
L
46-54
46
54
-8
A14/11
LPB
87.6Avg total
38.2Scored
49.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.047.687.6-7.617%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.347.289.5-4.933%-
Last 30 away (15)37.748.185.7-10.40%-
Last 10 (10)38.249.487.6-11.210%-
Last 5 (5)42.251.093.2-8.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)39.448.287.6-8.915%-
vs Similar (6)40.846.787.5-5.817%-
vs Weaker (4)42.046.288.2-4.225%-
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
FC Portotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

FC Porto: 86.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.118.4
49.6%
51.1%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.511.5
36.5%
31.9%34.5
🏀 Free throws20.014.8
74.0%
71.1%14.8
They take 68.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Esgueiratheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Esgueira: 74.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.716.0
47.5%
51.1%32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.59.8
32.1%
31.9%29.4
🏀 Free throws19.413.1
67.5%
71.1%13.1
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
FC Porto
WWLLWWWWLW
Esgueira
LLLLLLLLLW
#2
League position
#12
+6.5
Net rating
-21.3
95.9
Offensive rating
82.8
89.5
Defensive rating
104.1
52.0%
Effective FG%
47.8%
49.7%
Opp. effective FG%
56.8%
14.8%
Turnover %
16.8%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.30
36.5%
3-point %
32.1%
60.2%
Assist %
57.0%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence95.9 · 82.8Defence89.5 · 104.1Shooting52.0% · 47.8%3-point %36.5% · 32.1%Ball care14.8% · 16.8%Free throws0.29 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)70% · 10%
■ FC Porto   ■ Esgueira
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
FC Porto wins
2
Esgueira wins
DateGameScore
16/10/26Esgueira v FC Porto91-95
25/04/26FC Porto v Esgueira85-86
10/01/26Esgueira v FC Porto76-67
05/04/25Esgueira v FC Porto81-96
14/12/24FC Porto v Esgueira94-83
02/03/24Esgueira v FC Porto45-104
27/10/23FC Porto v Esgueira106-82
27/01/23FC Porto v Esgueira94-73
04/12/22Esgueira v FC Porto83-87
27/03/21Esgueira v FC Porto64-96
FC Portolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26AVitoria93-65
08/11/26HBraga81-76
03/11/26HJoventut Badalona64-81
31/10/26AOvarense76-78
25/10/26HCAB Madeira93-82
21/10/26ABnei Herzliya86-74
16/10/26AEsgueira95-91
11/10/26HBenfica93-86
07/10/26ABonn74-78
02/10/26ACA Queluz110-93
Esgueiralast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26APortimonense96-97 OT
07/11/26ABenfica78-112
31/10/26HCA Queluz93-104
24/10/26AOliveirense80-104
16/10/26HFC Porto91-95
10/10/26ASporting CP60-88
03/10/26HCD Povoa64-84
14/05/26HSporting CP73-85
10/05/26ASporting CP67-109
25/04/26AFC Porto86-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

FC Porto
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW86%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWWLW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %86%100%75%
Points / game91.689.093.5
Allowed / game81.681.381.8
Point differential+10.0+7.7+11.8
Avg total173.1170.3175.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Esgueira
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLL0%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game80.382.778.5
Allowed / game97.794.3100.2
Point differential-17.4-11.7-21.8
Avg total178.0177.0178.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %14%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Benfica76186%88.373.6+14.7
2 FC Porto76186%91.681.6+10.0
3 Ovarense76186%84.476.9+7.6
4 Oliveirense64267%92.290.0+2.2
5 Sporting CP74357%83.674.6+9.0
6 Braga74357%88.181.1+7.0
7 CD Povoa74357%75.075.3-0.3
8 CA Queluz63350%87.891.7-3.8
9 Vitoria72529%68.783.9-15.1
10 CAB Madeira71614%82.786.4-3.7
11 Portimonense71614%78.789.0-10.3
12 Esgueira7070%80.397.7-17.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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