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Fresno State vs Sacramento State Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 19 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 21:30
Scheduled
Position#142
Record3-1
FormLWLWW
Points / game84.2
Allowed / game83.0
vs
Position#287
Record1-2
FormWLWLL
Points / game74.3
Allowed / game77.3
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Fresno State v Sacramento State
19 Dec 2026
FRES v SACR
upcoming
08 Nov 2024
FRES64
SACR57
17 Dec 2022
FRES53
SACR59
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fresno State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Sacramento State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Fresno StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Mexico
#50
L
78-80
78
80
-2
H22/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
70-74
70
74
-4
A25/02
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
53-69
53
69
-16
H01/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
82-68
82
68
+14
H04/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
60-85
60
85
-25
A08/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
63-67
63
67
-4
A12/03
NCAA
Fresno Pacific
#354
W
88-79
88
79
+9
H03/11
NCAA
UC San Diego
#169
L
65-81
65
81
-16
A08/11
NCAA
Georgia State
#251
W
95-92 OT
95
92
+3
H11/11
NCAA
UC Riverside
#109
W
89-80
89
80
+9
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
44-32
34-48
39-32
31-42
23-28
30-41
45-34
37-34
29-44
31-41
32-27
31-40
41-38
47-41
36-32
29-49
39-38
39-40
50-28
39-52
151.8Avg total
74.3Scored
77.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)84.283.0167.2+1.275%
Season at home (3)90.783.7174.3+7.0100%
Season away (1)65.081.0146.0-16.00%
Last 10 (10)74.377.5151.8-3.240%
Last 5 (5)80.079.8159.8+0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)68.876.1144.9-7.322%
vs Similar (5)81.485.2166.6-3.840%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)78.562.8141.3+15.783%
This opponent (Sacramento State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sacramento StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Arizona
#335
L
74-79
74
79
-5
A15/02
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
L
94-102
94
102
-8
H20/02
NCAA
Idaho
#136
L
80-86
80
86
-6
H22/02
NCAA
Montana
#186
L
73-81
73
81
-8
A27/02
NCAA
Montana State
#144
L
61-82
61
82
-21
A28/02
NCAA
Idaho State
#284
W
83-65
83
65
+18
H03/03
NCAA
Idaho
#136
L
45-68
45
68
-23
A08/03
NCAA
William Jessup
#369
W
90-74
90
74
+16
H03/11
NCAA
Santa Clara
#66
L
77-83
77
83
-6
A08/11
NCAA
UC Davis
#121
L
56-75
56
75
-19
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
25-38
49-41
39-57
55-45
40-42
40-44
32-42
41-39
33-37
28-45
46-29
37-36
13-27
32-41
50-42
40-32
36-45
41-38
36-33
20-42
152.8Avg total
73.3Scored
79.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)74.377.3151.7-3.033%
Season at home (2)73.074.5147.5-1.550%
Season away (1)77.083.0160.0-6.00%
Last 10 (10)73.379.5152.8-6.220%
Last 5 (5)70.273.0143.2-2.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)73.884.8158.6-11.019%
vs Similar (7)78.478.4156.9+0.043%
vs Weaker (1)94.046.0140.0+48.0100%
This opponent (Fresno State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +4.5+4.51st half: -4.2-4.22nd half2nd half: -8.0-8.02nd half: -2.0-2.0
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +4.5+4.51st half: -4.2-4.22nd half2nd half: -8.0-8.02nd half: -2.0-2.0
Fresno StateSacramento State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Fresno StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Mexico
#50
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H22/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A25/02
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
23-28
23
28
-5
H01/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
45-34
45
34
+11
H04/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
29-44
29
44
-15
A08/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
32-27
32
27
+5
A12/03
NCAA
Fresno Pacific
#354
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H03/11
NCAA
UC San Diego
#169
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A08/11
NCAA
Georgia State
#251
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H11/11
NCAA
UC Riverside
#109
W
50-28
50
28
+22
H14/11
NCAA
71.1Avg total
37.8Scored
33.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.834.268.9+0.653%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.132.468.4+3.762%-
Last 30 away (14)33.336.269.5-2.943%-
Last 10 (10)37.833.371.1+4.580%-
Last 5 (5)39.632.672.2+7.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)31.132.463.5-1.339%-
vs Similar (5)40.841.081.8-0.260%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)39.733.272.8+6.583%-
This opponent (Sacramento State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sacramento StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Arizona
#335
L
25-38
25
38
-13
A15/02
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
L
39-57
39
57
-18
H20/02
NCAA
Idaho
#136
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H22/02
NCAA
Montana
#186
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A27/02
NCAA
Montana State
#144
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A28/02
NCAA
Idaho State
#284
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H03/03
NCAA
Idaho
#136
L
13-27
13
27
-14
A08/03
NCAA
William Jessup
#369
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H03/11
NCAA
Santa Clara
#66
L
36-45
36
45
-9
A08/11
NCAA
UC Davis
#121
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H15/11
NCAA
74.2Avg total
35.0Scored
39.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.240.376.5-4.123%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.836.877.5+4.054%-
Last 30 away (17)32.843.075.8-10.20%-
Last 10 (10)35.039.274.2-4.230%-
Last 5 (5)36.235.271.4+1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)35.841.277.0-5.419%-
vs Similar (7)33.739.773.4-6.014%-
vs Weaker (1)49.023.072.0+26.0100%-
This opponent (Fresno State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Fresno State wins
1
Sacramento State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HUC Riverside89-80
11/11/26HGeorgia State95-92 OT
08/11/26AUC San Diego65-81
03/11/26HFresno Pacific88-79
12/03/26AColorado State63-67
08/03/26AGrand Canyon60-85
04/03/26HSan Jose State82-68
01/03/26HBoise State53-69
25/02/26AColorado State70-74
22/02/26HNew Mexico78-80
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HUC Davis56-75
08/11/26ASanta Clara77-83
03/11/26HWilliam Jessup90-74
08/03/26AIdaho45-68
03/03/26HIdaho State83-65
28/02/26AMontana State61-82
27/02/26AMontana73-81
22/02/26HIdaho80-86
20/02/26HEast. Washington94-102
15/02/26ANorthern Arizona74-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Fresno State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeWWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %75%100%0%
Points / game84.290.765.0
Allowed / game83.083.781.0
Point differential+1.2+7.0-16.0
Avg total167.2174.3146.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %25%33%0%
Sacramento State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLL33%
HomeWL50%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game74.373.077.0
Allowed / game77.374.583.0
Point differential-3.0-1.5-6.0
Avg total151.7147.5160.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah State440100%105.570.5+35.0
2 Grand Canyon440100%97.270.8+26.5
3 San Diego State330100%89.073.0+16.0
4 UNLV330100%84.374.7+9.7
5 Boise State43175%104.578.8+25.8
6 New Mexico43175%93.271.0+22.2
7 Wyoming43175%81.859.8+22.0
8 Air Force43175%93.583.8+9.8
9 Colorado State43175%76.871.2+5.5
10 Fresno State43175%84.283.0+1.2
11 Nevada42250%79.073.2+5.8
12 San Jose State31233%83.081.7+1.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big Sky conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Idaho42250%86.571.5+15.0
2 Montana42250%78.065.2+12.8
3 Northern Colorado42250%82.069.2+12.8
4 Portland State42250%81.573.2+8.2
5 Sacramento State31233%74.377.3-3.0
6 Montana State31233%76.080.0-4.0
7 East. Washington41325%80.583.5-3.0
8 Weber State41325%74.586.2-11.8
9 Northern Arizona4040%69.587.8-18.2
10 Idaho State3030%67.392.0-24.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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