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Geelong vs Keilor Thunder Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 15 Jul 2023
Tip-off: 09:00
Final 116-85
28-27 40-17 25-19 23-22
Position#10
Record9-11
FormWLWLL
Points / game88.5
Allowed / game88.5
Geelong 🏆
Australia
vs
Position#16
Record8-12
FormLLLWL
Points / game87.4
Allowed / game93.2
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2023
Meetings · Geelong v Keilor Thunder
15 Jul 2023
GEEL116
KEIL85
07 May 2022
GEEL84
KEIL76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Geelong winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Keilor Thunder winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

GeelongAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bendigo Braves
#13
L
97-109
97
109
-12
A27/05
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
79-97
79
97
-18
H03/06
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#16
L
104-106 OT
104
106
-2
A04/06
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#18
W
89-73
89
73
+16
H17/06
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#4
L
90-100
90
100
-10
A23/06
NBL1 South
Eltham
#5
W
96-81
96
81
+15
H25/06
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#12
L
71-72
71
72
-1
H30/06
NBL1 South
Frankston
#3
W
98-97 OT
98
97
+1
A01/07
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#15
L
68-75
68
75
-7
A07/07
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#11
L
104-107
104
107
-3
H08/07
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-30
28-21
27-30
15-28
20-17
17-34
20-23
22-23
25-22
22-25
22-21
25-26
17-18
23-20
24-17
25-18
19-28
30-23
23-20
18-29
18-19
23-25
26-23
29-14
22-23
17-21
20-12
12-16
24-24
24-18
22-23
17-22
13-12
23-20
16-19
16-24
28-32
16-26
30-25
30-24
181.3Avg total
89.6Scored
91.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)88.588.5177.1+0.045%
Season at home (10)88.687.8176.4+0.850%
Season away (10)88.589.2177.7-0.740%
Last 10 (10)89.691.7181.3-2.130%
Last 5 (5)87.486.4173.8+1.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)81.989.1171.0-7.238%
vs Similar (9)91.293.8185.0-2.644%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)88.486.0174.4+2.446%
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Keilor ThunderAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Frankston
#3
L
103-106
103
106
-3
A27/05
NBL1 South
Waverley
#9
W
92-77
92
77
+15
A28/05
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#18
W
84-81
84
81
+3
H03/06
NBL1 South
Geelong
#10
W
106-104 OT
106
104
+2
H04/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
69-103
69
103
-34
A17/06
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#7
L
89-91
89
91
-2
H24/06
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#13
L
88-89
88
89
-1
H25/06
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#6
L
90-105
90
105
-15
H01/07
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#17
W
92-77
92
77
+15
A07/07
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
89-97
89
97
-8
A08/07
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-24
25-29
17-29
29-24
18-16
31-24
16-27
27-10
21-16
25-20
14-16
24-29
22-25
25-22
21-22
26-25
20-27
20-27
15-21
14-28
26-23
23-27
17-23
23-18
21-20
14-25
29-19
24-25
27-24
27-23
19-32
17-26
29-26
28-14
22-22
13-15
21-20
24-31
16-29
28-17
183.2Avg total
90.2Scored
93.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)87.493.2180.6-5.840%
Season at home (11)88.589.6178.1-1.245%
Season away (9)86.197.6183.7-11.433%
Last 10 (10)90.293.0183.2-2.840%
Last 5 (5)89.691.8181.4-2.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)85.593.2178.7-7.635%
vs Similar (8)85.178.0163.1+7.162%
vs Weaker (2)77.561.5139.0+16.0100%
This opponent (Geelong) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +1.7+1.7Q3: -5.4-5.4Q4Q4: -1.5-1.5Q4: +0.8+0.8
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +1.7+1.7Q3: -5.4-5.4Q4Q4: -1.5-1.5Q4: +0.8+0.8
GeelongKeilor Thunder
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
GeelongLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bendigo Braves
#13
W
55-51
55
51
+4
A27/05
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
37-51
37
51
-14
H03/06
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#16
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A04/06
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#18
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H17/06
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#4
L
49-51
49
51
-2
A23/06
NBL1 South
Eltham
#5
L
41-44
41
44
-3
H25/06
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#12
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H30/06
NBL1 South
Frankston
#3
W
48-42
48
42
+6
A01/07
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#15
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A07/07
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#11
L
44-58
44
58
-14
H08/07
NBL1 South
89.4Avg total
43.6Scored
45.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.045.390.3-0.357%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.847.392.1-2.550%-
Last 30 away (16)45.243.688.8+1.762%-
Last 10 (10)43.645.889.4-2.240%-
Last 5 (5)41.644.085.6-2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)40.244.684.9-4.450%-
vs Similar (9)47.849.997.7-2.144%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)46.142.588.6+3.569%-
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Keilor ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Frankston
#3
W
57-53
57
53
+4
A27/05
NBL1 South
Waverley
#9
W
49-40
49
40
+9
A28/05
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#18
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H03/06
NBL1 South
Geelong
#10
D
47-47
47
47
+0
H04/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A17/06
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#7
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H24/06
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#13
L
35-45
35
45
-10
H25/06
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#6
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H01/07
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#17
W
57-40
57
40
+17
A07/07
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
45-51
45
51
-6
A08/07
NBL1 South
94.2Avg total
47.9Scored
46.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.143.887.9+0.253%-
Last 30 at home (16)44.743.287.9+1.450%-
Last 30 away (14)43.444.587.9-1.157%-
Last 10 (10)47.946.394.2+1.650%-
Last 5 (5)48.046.694.6+1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)45.147.492.5-2.345%-
vs Similar (8)42.139.681.8+2.562%-
vs Weaker (2)41.525.066.5+16.5100%-
This opponent (Geelong) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Geelong wins
2
Keilor Thunder wins
DateGameScore
04/06/23Keilor Thunder v Geelong106-104 OT
06/08/22Keilor Thunder v Geelong98-74
07/05/22Geelong v Keilor Thunder84-76
Geelonglast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/07/23HBallarat104-107
07/07/23ARingwood68-75
01/07/23AFrankston98-97 OT
30/06/23HMelbourne Tigers71-72
25/06/23HEltham96-81
23/06/23AMt Gambier90-100
17/06/23HDandenong89-73
04/06/23AKeilor Thunder104-106 OT
03/06/23HKnox79-97
27/05/23ABendigo Braves97-109
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/07/23AHobart Chargers89-97
07/07/23ANW Tasmania92-77
01/07/23HNunawading90-105
25/06/23HBendigo Braves88-89
24/06/23HDiamond Valley89-91
17/06/23AKnox69-103
04/06/23HGeelong106-104 OT
03/06/23HDandenong84-81
28/05/23AWaverley92-77
27/05/23AFrankston103-106

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Geelong
NBL1 South 2023
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL45%
HomeLWWLL50%
AwayLLLWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %45%50%40%
Points / game88.588.688.5
Allowed / game88.587.889.2
Point differential+0.1+0.8-0.7
Avg total177.1176.4177.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%20%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won29% (7)25% (4)33% (3)
Overtime %10%0%20%
Keilor Thunder
NBL1 South 2023
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL40%
HomeWWLLL45%
AwayLWLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20119
Win %40%45%33%
Points / game87.488.586.1
Allowed / game93.289.697.6
Point differential-5.8-1.2-11.4
Avg total180.6178.1183.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%9%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)50% (6)0% (1)
Overtime %5%9%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox2016480%89.876.0+13.8
2 Frankston2115671%93.384.4+8.9
3 Sandringham Sabres2014670%93.085.0+8.0
4 Mt Gambier2014670%93.886.0+7.7
5 Eltham2012860%88.283.2+4.9
6 Waverley2012860%87.085.2+1.9
7 Nunawading2112957%91.386.6+4.7
8 Diamond Valley2112957%87.488.3-0.9
9 Hobart Chargers22121055%86.185.9+0.2
10 Ballarat21111052%93.893.9-0.1
11 Melbourne Tigers21101148%83.585.9-2.4
12 Geelong2091145%88.588.5+0.1
13 Bendigo Braves2091145%86.994.0-7.0
14 Kilsyth2191243%87.288.9-1.7
15 Keilor Thunder2081240%87.493.2-5.8
16 Ringwood2181338%89.693.1-3.5
17 NW Tasmania2271532%80.888.5-7.6
18 Casey Cavaliers2031715%74.587.5-13.0
19 Dandenong2131814%85.893.0-7.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Geelong28402523116
Keilor Thunder2717192285
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