Mt Gambier vs Geelong Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 23 Jun 2023

Tip-off: 10:30

Final 100-90

28-19 23-30 20-23 29-18

Position#4

Record10-5

FormLWWWW

Points / game94.9

Allowed / game87.5

Mt Gambier 🏆

Geelong

Position#10

Record7-7

FormWLLLW

Points / game88.9

Allowed / game88.4

NBL1 South

Other2023

Meetings · Mt Gambier v Geelong

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mt Gambier winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Geelong winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Mt Gambier Australia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Ringwood

#15

92-79

+13

H29/04

NBL1 South

Geelong

#10

105-106

105

106

-1

A06/05

NBL1 South

Melbourne Tigers

#12

76-100

100

-24

A07/05

NBL1 South

Waverley

71-77

-6

H12/05

NBL1 South

Sandringham Sabres

84-95

-11

H19/05

NBL1 South

Knox

63-77

-14

H27/05

NBL1 South

Kilsyth

#14

102-80

102

+22

H02/06

NBL1 South

Diamond Valley

91-77

+14

H09/06

NBL1 South

Ringwood

#15

105-98

105

A17/06

NBL1 South

Ballarat

#11

105-85

105

+20

A18/06

NBL1 South

21-15

22-22

26-17

23-25

27-32

30-33

22-22

26-19

18-28

24-25

14-28

20-19

17-19

22-17

18-25

14-16

20-36

25-27

20-18

19-14

17-18

13-20

14-14

19-25

24-23

28-18

23-22

27-17

22-22

30-13

22-21

17-21

18-23

32-27

30-20

25-28

24-26

30-19

28-16

23-24

176.8Avg total

89.4Scored

87.4Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (15)	94.9	87.5	182.4	+7.3	67%
Season at home (8)	88.2	80.9	169.1	+7.4	62%
Season away (7)	102.4	95.1	197.6	+7.3	71%
Last 10 (10)	89.4	87.4	176.8	+2.0	50%
Last 5 (5)	93.2	83.4	176.6	+9.8	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	63.0	77.0	140.0	-14.0	0%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	94.1	92.6	186.7	+1.6	43%
vs Weaker (22)	91.0	83.0	174.0	+8.0	73%

This opponent (Geelong) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Geelong

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Frankston

79-73

H29/04

NBL1 South

Mt Gambier

106-105

106

105

H06/05

NBL1 South

Diamond Valley

93-82

+11

A07/05

NBL1 South

Hobart Chargers

79-64

+15

A12/05

NBL1 South

NW Tasmania

#17

98-72

+26

A13/05

NBL1 South

Nunawading

90-82

H20/05

NBL1 South

Bendigo Braves

#13

97-109

109

-12

A27/05

NBL1 South

Knox

79-97

-18

H03/06

NBL1 South

Keilor Thunder

#16

104-106 OT

104

106

-2

A04/06

NBL1 South

Dandenong

#18

89-73

+16

H17/06

NBL1 South

26-18

15-22

18-16

20-17

32-27

33-30

22-22

19-26

37-18

14-18

18-22

24-24

13-21

23-11

24-15

19-17

26-20

21-13

24-20

27-19

24-21

28-26

24-11

14-24

27-30

28-21

27-30

15-28

20-17

17-34

20-23

22-23

25-22

22-25

22-21

25-26

17-18

23-20

24-17

25-18

177.7Avg total

91.4Scored

86.3Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (14)	88.9	88.4	177.3	+0.4	50%
Season at home (7)	87.9	88.3	176.1	-0.4	57%
Season away (7)	89.9	88.6	178.4	+1.3	43%
Last 10 (10)	91.4	86.3	177.7	+5.1	70%
Last 5 (5)	91.8	93.4	185.2	-1.6	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	76.8	87.8	164.5	-11.0	12%
vs Similar ◀ (10)	86.4	88.1	174.5	-1.7	50%
vs Weaker (12)	91.3	87.8	179.1	+3.6	58%

This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Mt GambierGeelong

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.7	21.7	43.4	+0.0	50%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	22.3	20.8	43.1	+1.5	59%	-
Last 30 away (13)	21.0	22.8	43.8	-1.8	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.8	24.2	45.0	-3.4	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.0	22.4	43.4	-1.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	17.0	18.0	35.0	-1.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (7)	23.1	26.7	49.9	-3.6	43%	-
vs Weaker (22)	21.5	20.3	41.8	+1.2	55%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.5	22.5	46.0	+1.0	57%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	22.0	22.2	44.2	-0.2	53%	-
Last 30 away (15)	25.0	22.8	47.8	+2.2	60%	-
Last 10 (10)	24.7	21.2	45.9	+3.5	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.6	21.6	44.2	+1.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	19.5	22.5	42.0	-3.0	38%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	24.3	21.9	46.2	+2.4	80%	-
vs Weaker (12)	25.5	23.0	48.5	+2.5	50%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.5	22.0	45.5	+1.5	50%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	22.7	20.8	43.5	+1.9	53%	-
Last 30 away (13)	24.6	23.5	48.2	+1.1	46%	-
Last 10 (10)	25.6	22.1	47.7	+3.5	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	26.6	19.4	46.0	+7.2	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	13.0	20.0	33.0	-7.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (7)	23.4	23.4	46.9	+0.0	29%	-
vs Weaker (22)	24.0	21.6	45.7	+2.4	59%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.2	22.4	43.6	-1.2	47%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	21.7	23.5	45.2	-1.7	47%	-
Last 30 away (15)	20.7	21.3	42.0	-0.7	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.4	22.0	44.4	+0.4	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.6	25.2	48.8	-1.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	18.5	23.6	42.1	-5.1	25%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	21.8	24.3	46.1	-2.5	40%	-
vs Weaker (12)	22.5	20.0	42.5	+2.5	67%	-

Mt GambierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Ringwood

#15

43-37

H29/04

NBL1 South

Geelong

#10

57-65

-8

A06/05

NBL1 South

Melbourne Tigers

#12

42-53

-11

A07/05

NBL1 South

Waverley

39-36

H12/05

NBL1 South

Sandringham Sabres

45-63

-18

H19/05

NBL1 South

Knox

30-38

-8

H27/05

NBL1 South

Kilsyth

#14

52-41

+11

H02/06

NBL1 South

Diamond Valley

52-35

+17

H09/06

NBL1 South

Ringwood

#15

50-50

A17/06

NBL1 South

Ballarat

#11

54-45

A18/06

NBL1 South

92.7Avg total

46.4Scored

46.3Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	45.3	43.7	89.0	+1.6	53%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	45.0	41.6	86.6	+3.4	65%	-
Last 30 away (13)	45.6	46.4	92.0	-0.8	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	46.4	46.3	92.7	+0.1	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	47.6	41.8	89.4	+5.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	30.0	38.0	68.0	-8.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (7)	46.6	50.1	96.7	-3.6	29%	-
vs Weaker (22)	45.5	41.9	87.5	+3.6	64%	-

This opponent (Geelong) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

GeelongLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Frankston

41-40

H29/04

NBL1 South

Mt Gambier

65-57

H06/05

NBL1 South

Diamond Valley

51-36

+15

A07/05

NBL1 South

Hobart Chargers

36-32

A12/05

NBL1 South

NW Tasmania

#17

47-33

+14

A13/05

NBL1 South

Nunawading

52-47

H20/05

NBL1 South

Bendigo Braves

#13

55-51

A27/05

NBL1 South

Knox

37-51

-14

H03/06

NBL1 South

Keilor Thunder

#16

47-47

A04/06

NBL1 South

Dandenong

#18

40-38

H17/06

NBL1 South

90.3Avg total

47.1Scored

43.2Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	44.7	44.9	89.6	-0.2	57%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	43.7	45.7	89.4	-1.9	53%	-
Last 30 away (15)	45.7	44.1	89.8	+1.5	60%	-
Last 10 (10)	47.1	43.2	90.3	+3.9	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	46.2	46.8	93.0	-0.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	38.0	46.1	84.1	-8.1	38%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	46.1	46.2	92.3	-0.1	50%	-
vs Weaker (12)	48.0	43.0	91.0	+5.0	75%	-

This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.8	20.8	43.6	+1.9	60%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	21.5	19.4	40.9	+2.1	65%	-
Last 30 away (13)	24.5	22.7	47.2	+1.8	54%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.7	20.3	42.0	+1.4	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.4	18.6	42.0	+4.8	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	14.0	14.0	28.0	+0.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (7)	25.1	21.6	46.7	+3.6	57%	-
vs Weaker (22)	22.4	20.9	43.3	+1.5	64%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.5	20.9	41.4	-0.3	43%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	19.8	20.3	40.1	-0.5	33%	-
Last 30 away (15)	21.3	21.5	42.7	-0.2	53%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.3	19.7	42.0	+2.6	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.4	20.4	43.8	+3.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	19.8	21.9	41.6	-2.1	25%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	19.9	20.7	40.6	-0.8	50%	-
vs Weaker (12)	21.6	20.3	41.9	+1.2	50%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.8	20.5	43.3	+2.2	60%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	22.4	19.6	42.1	+2.8	59%	-
Last 30 away (13)	23.2	21.7	44.9	+1.5	62%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.3	20.8	42.1	+0.5	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.2	23.0	45.2	-0.8	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	19.0	25.0	44.0	-6.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (7)	22.4	20.9	43.3	+1.6	71%	-
vs Weaker (22)	23.0	20.2	43.3	+2.8	59%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.2	21.7	41.9	-1.5	47%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	20.7	20.5	41.3	+0.2	53%	-
Last 30 away (15)	19.7	22.9	42.6	-3.1	40%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.0	22.2	43.2	-1.2	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.2	23.8	44.0	-3.6	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	19.0	19.8	38.8	-0.8	50%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	20.4	21.2	41.6	-0.8	60%	-
vs Weaker (12)	20.9	23.4	44.3	-2.5	33%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	45.5	41.4	86.9	+4.2	63%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	43.9	39.1	82.9	+4.8	65%	-
Last 30 away (13)	47.7	44.4	92.1	+3.3	62%	-
Last 10 (10)	43.0	41.1	84.1	+1.9	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	45.6	41.6	87.2	+4.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	33.0	39.0	72.0	-6.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (7)	47.6	42.4	90.0	+5.1	71%	-
vs Weaker (22)	45.5	41.1	86.6	+4.3	64%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	40.8	42.6	83.3	-1.8	37%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	40.5	40.8	81.3	-0.3	47%	-
Last 30 away (15)	41.0	44.3	85.3	-3.3	27%	-
Last 10 (10)	43.3	41.9	85.2	+1.4	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	43.6	44.2	87.8	-0.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	38.8	41.6	80.4	-2.9	38%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	40.3	41.9	82.2	-1.6	50%	-
vs Weaker (12)	42.5	43.8	86.2	-1.2	25%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Mt Gambier wins

Geelong wins

Date	Game	Score
06/05/23	Geelong v Mt Gambier	106-105
31/07/22	Geelong v Mt Gambier	86-92
20/05/22	Mt Gambier v Geelong	82-83
09/07/21	Geelong v Mt Gambier	90-96
23/06/17	Mt Gambier v Geelong	104-94
17/06/17	Geelong v Mt Gambier	72-95
15/07/16	Mt Gambier v Geelong	87-98
22/04/16	Geelong v Mt Gambier	74-97
07/08/15	Mt Gambier v Geelong	68-69
20/06/15	Geelong v Mt Gambier	73-94

Mt Gambierlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
18/06/23	A	Ballarat	105-85
17/06/23	A	Ringwood	105-98
09/06/23	H	Diamond Valley	91-77
02/06/23	H	Kilsyth	102-80
27/05/23	H	Knox	63-77
19/05/23	H	Sandringham Sabres	84-95
12/05/23	H	Waverley	71-77
07/05/23	A	Melbourne Tigers	76-100
06/05/23	A	Geelong	105-106
29/04/23	H	Ringwood	92-79

Geelonglast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
17/06/23	H	Dandenong	89-73
04/06/23	A	Keilor Thunder	104-106 OT
03/06/23	H	Knox	79-97
27/05/23	A	Bendigo Braves	97-109
20/05/23	H	Nunawading	90-82
13/05/23	A	NW Tasmania	98-72
12/05/23	A	Hobart Chargers	79-64
07/05/23	A	Diamond Valley	93-82
06/05/23	H	Mt Gambier	106-105
29/04/23	H	Frankston	79-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mt Gambier

NBL1 South 2023

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWWWW	67%
Home	LLLWW	62%
Away	WLLWW	71%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	15	8	7
Win %	67%	62%	71%
Points / game	94.9	88.2	102.4
Allowed / game	87.5	80.9	95.1
Point differential	+7.3	+7.4	+7.3
Avg total	182.4	169.1	197.6
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	53%	62%	43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	0% (1)	-	0% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Geelong

NBL1 South 2023

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLLLW	50%
Home	WWWLW	57%
Away	WWWLL	43%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	14	7	7
Win %	50%	57%	43%
Points / game	88.9	87.9	89.9
Allowed / game	88.4	88.3	88.6
Point differential	+0.4	-0.4	+1.3
Avg total	177.3	176.1	178.4
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	29%	14%	43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	25% (4)	50% (2)	0% (2)
Overtime %	7%	0%	14%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Frankston	15	12	3	80%	93.4	82.5	+10.9
2	Knox	16	12	4	75%	87.3	76.1	+11.2
3	Sandringham Sabres	16	12	4	75%	91.8	84.4	+7.4
4	Eltham	15	10	5	67%	91.5	81.5	+9.9
5	Mt Gambier	15	10	5	67%	94.9	87.5	+7.3
6	Nunawading	16	10	6	62%	91.1	83.9	+7.2
7	Waverley	15	9	6	60%	85.8	86.4	-0.6
8	Diamond Valley	16	9	7	56%	87.8	87.4	+0.3
9	Geelong	14	7	7	50%	88.9	88.4	+0.4
10	Keilor Thunder	15	7	8	47%	86.7	93.7	-7.0
11	Kilsyth	16	7	9	44%	87.7	89.3	-1.6
12	Ballarat	16	7	9	44%	91.8	94.0	-2.2
13	Melbourne Tigers	16	7	9	44%	83.3	87.1	-3.8
14	Bendigo Braves	16	7	9	44%	88.2	93.4	-5.2
15	Hobart Chargers	17	7	10	41%	83.6	86.9	-3.2
16	NW Tasmania	16	6	10	38%	81.0	89.8	-8.8
17	Ringwood	16	4	12	25%	88.4	92.9	-4.5
18	Dandenong	16	3	13	19%	85.6	90.8	-5.2
19	Casey Cavaliers	16	3	13	19%	75.6	86.6	-11.1

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Mt Gambier	28	23	20	29	100
Geelong	19	30	23	18	90

← all games of the day

Mt Gambier vs Geelong Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

Manage Cookies

Strictly Necessary

Functionality Cookies

Performance Cookies

Third Party Marketing/Targeting

A Pro feature