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Geelong vs Melbourne Tigers Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 31 May 2025
Tip-off: 09:00
Final 89-86
26-30 24-16 24-20 15-20
Position#17
Record4-7
FormLWLLL
Points / game80.9
Allowed / game86.1
Geelong 🏆
Australia
vs
Position#4
Record6-4
FormLWLWW
Points / game86.0
Allowed / game78.7
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · Geelong v Melbourne Tigers
31 May 2025
GEEL89
MELB86
15 Jun 2024
GEEL72
MELB66
30 Jun 2023
GEEL71
MELB72
15 May 2021
GEEL90
MELB66
15 Jul 2017
GEEL100
MELB72
13 Aug 2016
GEEL115
MELB93
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Geelong winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Melbourne Tigers winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

GeelongAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ballarat
#5
W
98-72
98
72
+26
H05/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
L
88-96
88
96
-8
A11/04
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
L
89-91
89
91
-2
H12/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
86-82
86
82
+4
A25/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
W
78-73
78
73
+5
A26/04
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
73-85
73
85
-12
A03/05
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
W
88-76
88
76
+12
H10/05
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
76-97
76
97
-21
A16/05
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
88-94
88
94
-6
A18/05
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
68-73
68
73
-5
A24/05
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-21
21-23
25-17
28-11
18-22
18-25
32-28
20-21
19-23
22-20
21-26
27-22
17-16
22-23
20-23
27-20
11-15
23-28
21-15
23-15
20-25
11-12
20-21
22-27
24-24
22-14
16-11
26-27
12-27
16-21
28-24
20-25
25-37
31-16
18-17
14-24
22-24
16-13
16-14
14-22
167.1Avg total
83.2Scored
83.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)80.986.1167.0-5.236%
Season at home (4)83.286.8170.0-3.550%
Season away (7)79.685.7165.3-6.129%
Last 10 (10)83.283.9167.1-0.740%
Last 5 (5)78.685.0163.6-6.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)77.688.4166.1-10.821%
vs Similar (10)83.778.2161.9+5.580%
vs Weaker (6)82.382.2164.5+0.250%
This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne TigersAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
100-69
100
69
+31
H30/03
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
77-85
77
85
-8
H04/04
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
78-62
78
62
+16
A08/04
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
W
89-81
89
81
+8
H13/04
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
L
76-77
76
77
-1
H24/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
85-87
85
87
-2
A04/05
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
103-78
103
78
+25
A10/05
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
69-89
69
89
-20
H11/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
100-78
100
78
+22
A17/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
83-81 OT
83
81
+2
A24/05
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-8
31-22
20-18
14-21
24-19
17-27
11-17
25-22
18-26
19-15
18-11
23-10
16-15
20-24
19-21
34-21
11-23
29-27
14-7
22-20
17-22
25-19
18-21
25-25
24-24
22-16
29-12
28-26
19-30
11-21
16-24
23-14
35-18
23-23
24-23
18-14
15-18
25-14
13-15
16-22
164.7Avg total
86.0Scored
78.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)86.078.7164.7+7.360%
Season at home (5)82.280.2162.4+2.040%
Season away (5)89.877.2167.0+12.680%
Last 10 (10)86.078.7164.7+7.360%
Last 5 (5)88.082.6170.6+5.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)79.483.0162.4-3.655%
vs Similar (13)76.180.2156.3-4.231%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)87.874.8162.7+13.0100%
This opponent (Geelong) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -4.2-4.2Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: +2.1+2.1Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: +3.3+3.3
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -4.2-4.2Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: +2.1+2.1Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: +3.3+3.3
GeelongMelbourne Tigers
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
GeelongLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ballarat
#5
W
45-44
45
44
+1
H05/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A11/04
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
L
41-43
41
43
-2
H12/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A25/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A26/04
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
31-37
31
37
-6
A03/05
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H10/05
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
28-48
28
48
-20
A16/05
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
W
56-53
56
53
+3
A18/05
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A24/05
NBL1 South
82.3Avg total
39.4Scored
42.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.542.781.2-4.233%-
Last 30 at home (13)42.242.484.6-0.254%-
Last 30 away (17)35.742.978.6-7.218%-
Last 10 (10)39.442.982.3-3.540%-
Last 5 (5)39.842.682.4-2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)36.744.481.1-7.629%-
vs Similar (10)41.140.581.6+0.640%-
vs Weaker (6)38.542.581.0-4.033%-
This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne TigersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
66-30
66
30
+36
H30/03
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
41-46
41
46
-5
H04/04
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A08/04
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H13/04
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
L
40-50
40
50
-10
H24/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
42-41
42
41
+1
A04/05
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
46-40
46
40
+6
A10/05
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
30-51
30
51
-21
H11/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
58-41
58
41
+17
A17/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A24/05
NBL1 South
84.7Avg total
43.6Scored
41.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.241.082.2+0.247%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.642.882.4-3.121%-
Last 30 away (16)42.539.481.9+3.169%-
Last 10 (10)43.641.184.7+2.550%-
Last 5 (5)43.241.084.2+2.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)40.241.581.6-1.345%-
vs Similar (13)40.840.581.2+0.346%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)43.841.385.2+2.550%-
This opponent (Geelong) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Geelong wins
2
Melbourne Tigers wins
Geelonglast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/05/25AEltham68-73
18/05/25AMt Gambier88-94
16/05/25AKnox76-97
10/05/25HDandenong88-76
03/05/25ASandringham Sabres73-85
26/04/25AHobart Chargers78-73
25/04/25ANW Tasmania86-82
12/04/25HBendigo Braves89-91
11/04/25AWaverley88-96
05/04/25HBallarat98-72
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/05/25ACasey Cavaliers83-81 OT
17/05/25ABendigo Braves100-78
11/05/25HFrankston69-89
10/05/25ABallarat103-78
04/05/25AEltham85-87
24/04/25HNunawading76-77
13/04/25HDandenong89-81
08/04/25ADiamond Valley78-62
04/04/25HKilsyth77-85
30/03/25HSandringham Sabres100-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Geelong
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL36%
HomeLWLW50%
AwayWLLLL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %36%50%29%
Points / game80.983.279.6
Allowed / game86.186.885.7
Point differential-5.2-3.5-6.1
Avg total167.0170.0165.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)0% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Melbourne Tigers
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW60%
HomeWLWLL40%
AwayWLWWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %60%40%80%
Points / game86.082.289.8
Allowed / game78.780.277.2
Point differential+7.3+2.0+12.6
Avg total164.7162.4167.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%20%60%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %10%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox1211192%92.777.6+15.1
2 Mt Gambier139469%96.883.2+13.6
3 Casey Cavaliers117464%87.081.9+5.1
4 Melbourne Tigers106460%86.078.7+7.3
5 Frankston127558%92.686.2+6.3
6 Hobart Chargers127558%85.681.7+3.9
7 Kilsyth127558%85.184.3+0.8
8 Eltham116555%85.585.8-0.4
9 Nunawading116555%86.988.6-1.7
10 Ballarat116555%86.093.7-7.7
11 Bendigo Braves137654%86.193.2-7.2
12 Waverley125742%89.494.2-4.8
13 Geelong114736%80.986.1-5.2
14 Sandringham Sabres114736%86.091.2-5.2
15 Diamond Valley114736%86.692.9-6.3
16 Keilor Thunder114736%81.790.5-8.8
17 Ringwood124833%91.889.1+2.8
18 NW Tasmania123925%85.987.6-1.7
19 Dandenong123925%87.795.4-7.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Geelong2624241589
Melbourne Tigers3016202086
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