PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 29 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 135-118
34-36 45-39 29-32 27-11
Position#29
Record16-58
FormLLWLL
Points / game111.9
Allowed / game120.6
vs
Position#17
Record39-34
FormLLLWL
Points / game120.5
Allowed / game117.7
USANBA· Gainbridge Fieldhouse
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Indiana Pacers v Miami Heat
01 Feb 2027
IND v MIA
upcoming
29 Mar 2026
IND135
MIA118
10 Jan 2026
IND123
MIA99
17 Nov 2024
IND119
MIA110
15 Nov 2024
IND111
MIA124
07 Apr 2024
IND117
MIA115
12 Dec 2022
IND82
MIA87
04 Nov 2022
IND101
MIA99
03 Dec 2021
IND104
MIA113
23 Oct 2021
IND102
MIA91
31 Mar 2021
IND87
MIA92
20 Aug 2020
IND100
MIA109
18 Aug 2020
IND101
MIA113
14 Aug 2020
IND109
MIA92
08 Jan 2020
IND108
MIA122
16 Nov 2018
IND99
MIA91
25 Mar 2018
IND113
MIA107
10 Jan 2018
IND106
MIA114
12 Mar 2017
IND102
MIA98
11 Dec 2015
IND96
MIA83
06 Nov 2015
IND90
MIA87
05 Apr 2015
IND112
MIA89
31 Dec 2014
IND106
MIA95
28 May 2014
IND93
MIA90
20 May 2014
IND83
MIA87
18 May 2014
IND107
MIA96
26 Mar 2014
IND84
MIA83
10 Dec 2013
IND90
MIA84
01 Jun 2013
IND91
MIA77
28 May 2013
IND99
MIA92
26 May 2013
IND96
MIA114
01 Feb 2013
IND102
MIA89
08 Jan 2013
IND87
MIA77
24 May 2012
IND93
MIA105
20 May 2012
IND93
MIA101
17 May 2012
IND94
MIA75
26 Mar 2012
IND105
MIA90
14 Feb 2012
IND90
MIA105
15 Feb 2011
IND103
MIA110
02 Apr 2010
IND96
MIA105
30 Oct 2009
IND83
MIA96
25 Mar 2009
IND90
MIA88
30 Jan 2009
IND114
MIA103
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Indiana Pacers winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Indiana PacersUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPacers
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
109-114
109
114
-5
85avg 104
A11/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
108-123
108
123
-15
96avg 104
H12/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
92-101
92
101
-9
80avg 104
H13/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
123-134
123
134
-11
121avg 104
A15/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
110-136
110
136
-26
104avg 104
A17/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
119-127
119
127
-8
114avg 104
H18/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
119-134
119
134
-15
115avg 104
A22/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
128-126
128
126
+2
128avg 104
A23/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
130-137
130
137
-7
128avg 104
H25/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
113-114
113
114
-1
114avg 104
H27/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-24
34-18
23-30
27-42
36-36
25-31
27-29
20-27
21-24
24-32
29-20
18-25
34-26
31-36
31-40
27-32
34-38
30-34
27-33
19-31
33-37
29-42
24-26
33-22
29-42
24-24
32-34
34-34
34-24
25-40
44-31
25-31
28-45
31-30
26-30
45-32
42-21
18-29
28-36
25-28
239.7Avg total
115.1Scored
124.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (74)111.9120.6232.6-8.722%
Season at home (37)113.8119.1232.9-5.327%
Season away (37)110.0122.2232.2-12.216%
Last 10 (10)115.1124.6239.7-9.510%
Last 5 (5)121.8127.6249.4-5.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)114.9125.9240.8-11.020%
vs Similar (10)114.0120.6234.6-6.620%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
121-110
121
110
+11
118avg 110
H08/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
150-129
150
129
+21
146avg 110
H10/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
112-105
112
105
+7
106avg 110
H12/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
117-121
117
121
-4
103avg 110
H15/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
106-136
106
136
-30
95avg 110
A17/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
126-134
126
134
-8
120avg 110
H20/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
122-123
122
123
-1
117avg 110
A22/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
111-136
111
136
-25
99avg 110
H23/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
120-103
120
103
+17
120avg 110
A25/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
128-149
128
149
-21
118avg 110
A27/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-16
33-32
36-32
18-30
40-29
36-33
37-35
37-32
31-21
28-30
26-26
27-28
27-41
28-30
28-27
34-23
24-26
33-33
31-37
18-40
42-29
23-30
23-38
38-37
29-32
34-32
33-23
26-36
31-38
27-38
23-32
30-28
28-19
35-27
20-37
37-20
27-40
19-41
41-28
41-40
245.9Avg total
121.3Scored
124.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (73)120.5117.7238.2+2.753%
Season at home (37)122.1117.3239.4+4.862%
Season away (36)118.7118.1236.9+0.644%
Last 10 (10)121.3124.6245.9-3.340%
Last 5 (5)121.4129.0250.4-7.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)109.3114.7224.0-5.333%
vs Similar (14)119.1121.5240.6-2.436%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)126.6112.5239.1+14.277%
This opponent (Indiana Pacers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q2Q2: -4.5-4.5Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: -1.7-1.7Q4Q4: -3.1-3.1Q4: -0.8-0.8
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q2Q2: -4.5-4.5Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: -1.7-1.7Q4Q4: -3.1-3.1Q4: -0.8-0.8
Indiana PacersMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Indiana PacersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
59-42
59
42
+17
A11/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
61-67
61
67
-6
H12/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
45-56
45
56
-11
H13/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
65-62
65
62
+3
A15/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
64-72
64
72
-8
A17/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
62-79
62
79
-17
H18/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
53-66
53
66
-13
A22/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
59-64
59
64
-5
A23/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
59-75
59
75
-16
H25/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
60-50
60
50
+10
H27/03
NBA
122.0Avg total
58.7Scored
63.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.162.7119.8-5.627%-
Last 30 at home (13)58.865.4124.2-6.515%-
Last 30 away (17)55.860.6116.4-4.835%-
Last 10 (10)58.763.3122.0-4.630%-
Last 5 (5)58.666.8125.4-8.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)57.164.8122.0-7.725%-
vs Similar (10)57.058.3115.3-1.330%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
67-48
67
48
+19
H08/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
76-62
76
62
+14
H10/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
59-51
59
51
+8
H12/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
55-71
55
71
-16
H15/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
57-59
57
59
-2
A17/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H20/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
63-64
63
64
-1
A22/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
58-76
58
76
-18
H23/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
63-46
63
46
+17
A25/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
46-81
46
81
-35
A27/03
NBA
122.6Avg total
60.9Scored
61.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.157.9119.1+3.260%-
Last 30 at home (15)61.958.7120.5+3.267%-
Last 30 away (15)60.457.2117.6+3.253%-
Last 10 (10)60.961.7122.6-0.850%-
Last 5 (5)59.065.2124.2-6.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)61.354.0115.3+7.367%-
vs Similar (14)57.961.1119.0-3.136%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)64.555.5120.0+9.185%-
This opponent (Indiana Pacers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Indiana Pacerstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Indiana Pacers: 115.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.7 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.727.3
56.1%
54.8%54.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.214.9
40.1%
35.8%44.7
🏀 Free throws19.015.8
83.2%
78.1%15.8
They take 85.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 121.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws24.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.228.3
57.5%
54.8%56.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.313.5
32.7%
35.8%40.5
🏀 Free throws29.124.2
83.2%
78.1%24.2
They take 90.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 41.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Indiana Pacers
LLWLLLLLLL
Miami Heat
LWLLLLLWWW
#29
League position
#17
-9.2
Net rating
-3.1
111.7
Offensive rating
114.8
120.9
Defensive rating
118.0
57.8%
Effective FG%
53.6%
56.8%
Opp. effective FG%
57.6%
13.7%
Turnover %
11.5%
11.4%
Off. rebound %
25.2%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.32
40.1%
3-point %
32.7%
73.0%
Assist %
68.4%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence111.7 · 114.8Defence120.9 · 118.0Shooting57.8% · 53.6%3-point %40.1% · 32.7%Ball care13.7% · 11.5%Off. rebounds11.4% · 25.2%Free throws0.22 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)10% · 40%
■ Indiana Pacers   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Indiana Pacers wins
5
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/03/26HLos Angeles Clippers113-114
25/03/26HLos Angeles Lakers130-137
23/03/26AOrlando Magic128-126
22/03/26ASan Antonio Spurs119-134
18/03/26HPortland Trail Blazers119-127
17/03/26ANew York Knicks110-136
15/03/26AMilwaukee Bucks123-134
13/03/26HNew York Knicks92-101
12/03/26HPhoenix Suns108-123
11/03/26ASacramento Kings109-114
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/03/26ACleveland Cavaliers128-149
25/03/26ACleveland Cavaliers120-103
23/03/26HSan Antonio Spurs111-136
22/03/26AHouston Rockets122-123
20/03/26HLos Angeles Lakers126-134
17/03/26ACharlotte Hornets106-136
15/03/26HOrlando Magic117-121
12/03/26HMilwaukee Bucks112-105
10/03/26HWashington Wizards150-129
08/03/26HDetroit Pistons121-110

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Indiana Pacers
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL22%
HomeLLLLL27%
AwayLLLLW16%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743737
Win %22%27%16%
Points / game111.9113.8110.0
Allowed / game120.6119.1122.2
Point differential-8.7-5.3-12.2
Avg total232.6232.9232.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+5%8%3%
Close games (≤5 pts) won45% (22)38% (13)56% (9)
Overtime %3%3%3%
Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL53%
HomeWWLLL62%
AwayWLLWL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games733736
Win %53%62%44%
Points / game120.5122.1118.7
Allowed / game117.7117.3118.1
Point differential+2.7+4.8+0.6
Avg total238.2239.4236.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+34%38%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (16)60% (10)33% (6)
Overtime %1%3%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder72571579%118.6107.9+10.7
2 San Antonio Spurs72541875%119.3111.2+8.2
3 Detroit Pistons74542073%117.5109.5+8.0
4 Boston Celtics73492467%114.1106.9+7.2
5 Los Angeles Lakers73482566%116.6114.7+1.9
6 New York Knicks72462664%116.8110.5+6.3
7 Denver Nuggets75472863%121.3116.9+4.4
8 Cleveland Cavaliers74462862%119.4115.2+4.2
9 Minnesota Timberwolves74452961%117.9114.4+3.5
10 Houston Rockets73442960%114.1110.2+3.9
11 Toronto Raptors72413157%114.2112.2+1.9
12 Phoenix Suns73413256%113.0110.8+2.2
13 Atlanta Hawks75423356%118.3116.4+1.8
14 Philadelphia 76ers74413355%116.2116.5-0.3
15 Orlando Magic71383354%115.6114.7+1.0
16 Miami Heat73393453%120.5117.7+2.7
17 Charlotte Hornets74393553%116.3111.7+4.6
18 Los Angeles Clippers75393652%114.0112.5+1.5
19 Portland Trail Blazers75373849%115.2116.5-1.3
20 Golden State Warriors74363849%115.2114.9+0.3
21 Chicago Bulls74294539%116.4121.0-4.6
22 Milwaukee Bucks74294539%110.4116.9-6.4
23 Memphis Grizzlies74254934%115.1119.2-4.0
24 New Orleans Pelicans75255033%115.3119.3-4.1
25 Dallas Mavericks74245032%113.9118.9-5.1
26 Utah Jazz75215428%117.4125.4-8.0
27 Sacramento Kings75195625%110.9121.2-10.3
28 Washington Wizards73175623%113.0124.0-11.0
29 Brooklyn Nets74175723%106.2115.7-9.5
30 Indiana Pacers74165822%111.9120.6-8.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Indiana Pacers34452927135
Miami Heat36393211118
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.