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Miami Heat vs Washington Wizards Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 10 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 150-129
40-29 36-33 37-35 37-32
Position#17
Record36-28
FormWWWWW
Points / game120.3
Allowed / game116.5
vs
Position#30
Record16-47
FormLLLLL
Points / game112.3
Allowed / game123.3
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Miami Heat v Washington Wizards
03 Dec 2026
MIA v WAS
upcoming
04 Apr 2026
MIA152
WAS136
10 Mar 2026
MIA150
WAS129
13 Apr 2025
MIA118
WAS119
03 Mar 2025
MIA106
WAS90
10 Mar 2024
MIA108
WAS110
03 Nov 2023
MIA121
WAS114
25 Nov 2022
MIA110
WAS107
23 Nov 2022
MIA113
WAS105
28 Dec 2021
MIA119
WAS112
18 Nov 2021
MIA112
WAS97
05 Feb 2021
MIA122
WAS95
03 Feb 2021
MIA100
WAS103
22 Jan 2020
MIA134
WAS129
06 Dec 2019
MIA112
WAS103
04 Jan 2019
MIA115
WAS109
10 Nov 2018
MIA110
WAS116
10 Mar 2018
MIA129
WAS102
15 Nov 2017
MIA93
WAS102
12 Apr 2017
MIA110
WAS102
12 Dec 2016
MIA112
WAS101
20 Feb 2016
MIA114
WAS94
07 Dec 2015
MIA103
WAS114
19 Dec 2014
MIA103
WAS105
29 Oct 2014
MIA107
WAS95
10 Mar 2014
MIA99
WAS90
03 Nov 2013
MIA103
WAS93
06 Jan 2013
MIA99
WAS71
15 Dec 2012
MIA102
WAS72
21 Apr 2012
MIA84
WAS86
25 Feb 2011
MIA121
WAS113
29 Nov 2010
MIA105
WAS94
27 Nov 2009
MIA84
WAS94
10 Nov 2009
MIA90
WAS76
28 Jan 2009
MIA93
WAS71
14 Nov 2008
MIA97
WAS77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Washington Wizards winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
123-111
123
111
+12
111avg 108
A12/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
128-97
128
97
+31
128avg 108
A21/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
136-120
136
120
+16
140avg 108
H22/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
117-128
117
128
-11
113avg 108
A25/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
117-124
117
124
-7
110avg 108
A27/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
115-105
115
105
+10
106avg 108
H28/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
124-98
124
98
+26
120avg 108
H04/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
126-110
126
110
+16
123avg 108
H06/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
128-120
128
120
+8
120avg 108
A07/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
121-110
121
110
+11
118avg 108
H08/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-25
27-30
38-30
27-26
29-16
28-35
30-24
41-22
39-33
34-35
39-26
24-26
29-30
29-33
35-26
24-39
35-36
22-37
34-26
26-25
32-28
19-24
34-31
30-22
34-28
35-26
22-21
33-23
31-26
29-30
35-27
31-27
30-27
28-34
40-40
30-19
34-16
33-32
36-32
18-30
235.8Avg total
123.5Scored
112.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (64)120.3116.5236.8+3.856%
Season at home (32)122.0116.1238.1+5.966%
Season away (32)118.7116.9235.6+1.847%
Last 10 (10)123.5112.3235.8+11.280%
Last 5 (5)122.8108.6231.4+14.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)113.0114.2227.2-1.240%
vs Similar (11)116.5119.4235.8-2.945%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)124.1112.4236.6+11.771%
This opponent (Washington Wizards) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Washington WizardsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWizards
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
112-105
112
105
+7
103avg 98
H20/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
131-118
131
118
+13
134avg 98
H21/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
112-129
112
129
-17
103avg 98
H22/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
98-119
98
119
-21
89avg 98
A25/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
96-126
96
126
-30
78avg 98
A27/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
125-134
125
134
-9
113avg 98
H01/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
118-123
118
123
-5
96avg 98
H03/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
109-126
109
126
-17
84avg 98
A04/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
112-122
112
122
-10
79avg 98
H06/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
118-138
118
138
-20
99avg 98
A08/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-24
33-23
29-33
24-25
22-27
35-41
35-24
39-26
37-38
19-23
28-44
28-24
20-35
23-25
21-40
34-19
26-37
30-39
24-22
16-28
33-25
31-36
28-37
33-36
30-26
21-34
29-34
38-29
24-27
30-30
27-40
28-29
23-37
26-30
35-26
28-29
35-32
30-35
28-35
25-36
237.1Avg total
113.1Scored
124.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (63)112.3123.3235.6-11.025%
Season at home (33)114.1123.1237.2-8.933%
Season away (30)110.3123.5233.8-13.217%
Last 10 (10)113.1124.0237.1-10.920%
Last 5 (5)116.4128.6245.0-12.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)109.8123.6233.4-13.817%
vs Similar (6)116.5118.7235.2-2.250%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +5.9+5.9Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: -3.2-3.2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q3Q3: +6.0+6.0Q3: -5.1-5.1Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: +1.2+1.2
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +5.9+5.9Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: -3.2-3.2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q3Q3: +6.0+6.0Q3: -5.1-5.1Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: +1.2+1.2
Miami HeatWashington Wizards
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A12/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
57-51
57
51
+6
A21/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H22/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
58-63
58
63
-5
A25/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
57-73
57
73
-16
A27/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
51-52
51
52
-1
H28/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
69-54
69
54
+15
H04/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
60-56
60
56
+4
H06/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
58-61
58
61
-3
A07/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
67-48
67
48
+19
H08/03
NBA
118.9Avg total
60.8Scored
58.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.957.1119.1+4.863%-
Last 30 at home (14)62.956.9119.7+6.071%-
Last 30 away (16)61.157.4118.5+3.856%-
Last 10 (10)60.858.1118.9+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)61.054.2115.2+6.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)61.851.8113.6+10.080%-
vs Similar (11)59.460.0119.4-0.636%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)64.056.8120.8+7.279%-
This opponent (Washington Wizards) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Washington WizardsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
59-47
59
47
+12
H20/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
57-68
57
68
-11
H21/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
56-61
56
61
-5
H22/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
43-60
43
60
-17
A25/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
56-76
56
76
-20
A27/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
64-61
64
61
+3
H01/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
51-60
51
60
-9
H03/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
54-57
54
57
-3
A04/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
49-67
49
67
-18
H06/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
65-67
65
67
-2
A08/03
NBA
117.8Avg total
55.4Scored
62.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.762.5117.2-7.827%-
Last 30 at home (17)54.159.8113.9-5.635%-
Last 30 away (13)55.566.2121.6-10.715%-
Last 10 (10)55.462.4117.8-7.020%-
Last 5 (5)56.662.4119.0-5.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)54.862.5117.2-7.725%-
vs Similar (6)54.362.8117.2-8.533%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 123.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.931.3
55.0%
54.8%62.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.113.6
36.7%
35.8%40.8
🏀 Free throws25.120.1
80.1%
78.1%20.1
They take 94.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Washington Wizardstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Washington Wizards: 113.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.4 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.729.5
54.9%
54.8%59.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.712.8
35.9%
35.8%38.4
🏀 Free throws20.815.7
75.5%
78.1%15.7
They take 89.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWWWWLLWWW
Washington Wizards
LLLLLLLLWW
#17
League position
#30
+10.7
Net rating
-10.2
117.9
Offensive rating
106.3
107.2
Defensive rating
116.6
55.0%
Effective FG%
54.5%
51.7%
Opp. effective FG%
56.3%
11.4%
Turnover %
13.6%
33.4%
Off. rebound %
16.0%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.23
36.7%
3-point %
35.9%
64.6%
Assist %
57.9%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence117.9 · 106.3Defence107.2 · 116.6Shooting55.0% · 54.5%3-point %36.7% · 35.9%Ball care11.4% · 13.6%Off. rebounds33.4% · 16.0%Free throws0.27 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)80% · 20%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Washington Wizards
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Miami Heat wins
3
Washington Wizards wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26HDetroit Pistons121-110
07/03/26ACharlotte Hornets128-120
06/03/26HBrooklyn Nets126-110
04/03/26HBrooklyn Nets124-98
28/02/26HHouston Rockets115-105
27/02/26APhiladelphia 76ers117-124
25/02/26AMilwaukee Bucks117-128
22/02/26HMemphis Grizzlies136-120
21/02/26AAtlanta Hawks128-97
12/02/26ANew Orleans Pelicans123-111
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26ANew Orleans Pelicans118-138
06/03/26HUtah Jazz112-122
04/03/26AOrlando Magic109-126
03/03/26HHouston Rockets118-123
01/03/26HToronto Raptors125-134
27/02/26AAtlanta Hawks96-126
25/02/26AAtlanta Hawks98-119
22/02/26HCharlotte Hornets112-129
21/02/26HIndiana Pacers131-118
20/02/26HIndiana Pacers112-105

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW56%
HomeWWWWW66%
AwayWWLLW47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games643232
Win %56%66%47%
Points / game120.3122.0118.7
Allowed / game116.5116.1116.9
Point differential+3.8+5.9+1.8
Avg total236.8238.1235.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%41%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (14)67% (9)40% (5)
Overtime %2%3%0%
Washington Wizards
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL25%
HomeWLLLL33%
AwayLLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633330
Win %25%33%17%
Points / game112.3114.1110.3
Allowed / game123.3123.1123.5
Point differential-11.0-8.9-13.2
Avg total235.6237.2233.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%15%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won42% (12)50% (8)25% (4)
Overtime %3%3%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder64501478%118.6108.1+10.5
2 San Antonio Spurs62451773%118.5111.4+7.1
3 Detroit Pistons63451871%116.7109.8+6.9
4 Boston Celtics64432167%114.5106.9+7.6
5 Minnesota Timberwolves64402462%118.6114.5+4.2
6 Houston Rockets63392462%114.6109.9+4.7
7 Los Angeles Lakers63392462%115.8114.8+1.1
8 Cleveland Cavaliers65402562%118.7114.6+4.2
9 New York Knicks64392561%116.7110.9+5.8
10 Denver Nuggets65392660%120.3116.6+3.6
11 Phoenix Suns63372659%112.4110.6+1.9
12 Toronto Raptors62362658%113.9111.6+2.3
13 Miami Heat64362856%120.3116.5+3.8
14 Orlando Magic61342756%115.0113.4+1.6
15 Philadelphia 76ers65353054%115.9116.3-0.3
16 Atlanta Hawks64333152%117.7117.3+0.4
17 Golden State Warriors64323250%115.1114.0+1.1
18 Los Angeles Clippers64323250%112.8112.3+0.5
19 Charlotte Hornets65323349%115.9112.5+3.4
20 Portland Trail Blazers65313448%115.3118.0-2.6
21 Milwaukee Bucks63273643%111.1115.8-4.7
22 Chicago Bulls64263841%115.4119.8-4.4
23 Memphis Grizzlies64234136%115.9118.3-2.4
24 Dallas Mavericks64214333%113.0117.7-4.8
25 New Orleans Pelicans66214532%115.5120.2-4.7
26 Utah Jazz65204531%117.4124.9-7.5
27 Brooklyn Nets64174727%107.2115.6-8.4
28 Washington Wizards63164725%112.3123.3-11.0
29 Indiana Pacers64154923%111.4120.0-8.6
30 Sacramento Kings65155023%110.6121.1-10.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat40363737150
Washington Wizards29333532129
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