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Japan vs South Korea Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 01 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 05:00
Final 78-72
15-16 27-22 12-17 24-17
Position#16
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game83.3
Allowed / game74.7
Japan 🏆
vs
Position#46
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game78.3
Allowed / game76.3
EuropeWorld CupRound 4· Okinawa Arena
Other2027
Meetings · Japan v South Korea
01 Mar 2026
JAPA78
SOUT72
30 Sep 2023
JAPA83
SOUT77
14 Aug 2017
JAPA68
SOUT81
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Japan winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
South Korea winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

JapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJapan
Date
Competition
Guam
#14
W
83-78
83
78
+5
no box
A24/11
Asia Cup
China
#2
L
58-100
58
100
-42
no box
A20/02
Asia Cup
Mongolia
#15
W
89-79
89
79
+10
no box
A23/02
Asia Cup
Syria
#20
W
99-68
99
68
+31
95avg 82
H06/08
Asia Cup
Iran
#3
L
70-78
70
78
-8
66avg 82
A08/08
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
102-63
102
63
+39
109avg 82
A10/08
Asia Cup
Lebanon
#5
L
73-97
73
97
-24
64avg 82
H12/08
Asia Cup
Chinese Taipei
#62
W
90-64
90
64
+26
no box
H28/11
World Cup
Chinese Taipei
#62
W
80-73
80
73
+7
no box
A01/12
World Cup
China
#30
L
80-87
80
87
-7
no box
H26/02
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-15
28-16
20-22
15-25
12-19
21-31
12-19
13-31
23-22
23-22
21-18
22-17
18-13
14-28
28-10
39-17
13-16
21-18
24-24
12-20
27-15
25-18
26-19
24-11
19-23
22-30
23-28
9-16
23-10
22-12
20-20
25-22
17-22
25-14
15-21
23-16
21-11
26-22
9-25
24-29
161.1Avg total
82.4Scored
78.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)83.374.7158.0+8.767%
Season at home (2)85.075.5160.5+9.550%
Season away (1)80.073.0153.0+7.0100%
Last 10 (10)82.478.7161.1+3.760%
Last 5 (5)85.076.8161.8+8.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)70.684.6155.1-14.029%
vs Similar (5)79.485.2164.6-5.840%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)85.468.3153.7+17.289%
This opponent (South Korea) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South KoreaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKorea
Date
Competition
Thailand
#12
W
91-90
91
90
+1
no box
A20/02
Asia Cup
Indonesia
#29
W
90-63
90
63
+27
no box
A23/02
Asia Cup
Australia
#1
L
61-97
61
97
-36
42avg 76
A06/08
Asia Cup
Qatar
#13
W
97-83
97
83
+14
90avg 76
H08/08
Asia Cup
Lebanon
#5
W
97-86
97
86
+11
97avg 76
H10/08
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
99-66
99
66
+33
95avg 76
H12/08
Asia Cup
China
#2
L
71-79
71
79
-8
56avg 76
A14/08
Asia Cup
China
#30
W
80-76
80
76
+4
no box
A28/11
World Cup
China
#30
W
90-76
90
76
+14
no box
H01/12
World Cup
Chinese Taipei
#62
L
65-77
65
77
-12
no box
A26/02
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-23
31-20
17-19
19-28
24-17
25-7
24-23
17-16
17-25
14-23
16-20
14-29
25-22
28-16
22-23
22-22
26-17
26-19
22-20
23-30
17-18
33-10
26-17
23-21
24-25
11-21
20-18
16-15
24-16
23-18
14-18
19-24
28-13
24-16
28-23
10-24
18-21
15-22
18-17
14-17
163.4Avg total
84.1Scored
79.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)78.376.3154.7+2.067%
Season at home (1)90.076.0166.0+14.0100%
Season away (2)72.576.5149.0-4.050%
Last 10 (10)84.179.3163.4+4.870%
Last 5 (5)81.074.8155.8+6.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)73.889.8163.6-16.011%
vs Similar (5)83.680.6164.2+3.060%
vs Weaker (16)88.970.6159.5+18.488%
This opponent (Japan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +2.7+2.7Q1: +3.0+3.0Q2Q2: +1.6+1.6Q2: +5.8+5.8Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: -4.9-4.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +2.7+2.7Q1: +3.0+3.0Q2Q2: +1.6+1.6Q2: +5.8+5.8Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: -4.9-4.9
JapanSouth Korea
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
JapanLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Guam
#14
W
48-31
48
31
+17
A24/11
Asia Cup
China
#2
L
33-50
33
50
-17
A20/02
Asia Cup
Mongolia
#15
W
46-44
46
44
+2
A23/02
Asia Cup
Syria
#20
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H06/08
Asia Cup
Iran
#3
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A08/08
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
52-33
52
33
+19
A10/08
Asia Cup
Lebanon
#5
L
41-53
41
53
-12
H12/08
Asia Cup
Chinese Taipei
#62
W
45-22
45
22
+23
H28/11
World Cup
Chinese Taipei
#62
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A01/12
World Cup
China
#30
W
47-33
47
33
+14
H26/02
World Cup
79.7Avg total
42.0Scored
37.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.338.478.6+1.950%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.336.878.1+4.650%-
Last 30 away (14)39.140.279.3-1.150%-
Last 10 (10)42.037.779.7+4.360%-
Last 5 (5)45.435.480.8+10.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)34.144.378.4-10.114%-
vs Similar (5)34.845.880.6-11.00%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)44.234.078.2+10.278%-
This opponent (South Korea) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South KoreaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Thailand
#12
W
55-43
55
43
+12
A20/02
Asia Cup
Indonesia
#29
W
49-24
49
24
+25
A23/02
Asia Cup
Australia
#1
L
31-48
31
48
-17
A06/08
Asia Cup
Qatar
#13
W
53-38
53
38
+15
H08/08
Asia Cup
Lebanon
#5
W
52-36
52
36
+16
H10/08
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
50-28
50
28
+22
H12/08
Asia Cup
China
#2
L
35-46
35
46
-11
A14/08
Asia Cup
China
#30
W
47-34
47
34
+13
A28/11
World Cup
China
#30
W
52-29
52
29
+23
H01/12
World Cup
Chinese Taipei
#62
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A26/02
World Cup
82.6Avg total
45.7Scored
36.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.138.182.2+6.060%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.736.683.3+10.173%-
Last 30 away (15)41.539.581.0+1.947%-
Last 10 (10)45.736.982.6+8.870%-
Last 5 (5)43.436.079.4+7.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)37.746.183.8-8.433%-
vs Similar (5)44.437.281.6+7.260%-
vs Weaker (16)47.633.881.4+13.875%-
This opponent (Japan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Japantheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Japan: 81.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀35%
🏀🏀🏀47%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers28.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers27.014.2
52.6%
-28.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.212.6
33.9%
-37.8
🏀 Free throws18.914.8
78.3%
-14.8
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 58% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
South Koreatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

South Korea: 85.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.4 pts a game · 14% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.722.1
54.3%
-44.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.89.7
32.6%
-29.1
🏀 Free throws17.212.4
72.1%
-12.4
They take 70.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 01 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Japan
LWWLWLWWLW
South Korea
LWWLWWWLWW
#16
League position
#46
+6.7
Net rating
+8.5
106.5
Offensive rating
108.4
99.8
Defensive rating
99.9
51.6%
Effective FG%
52.0%
47.5%
Opp. effective FG%
50.2%
16.8%
Turnover %
15.8%
25.5%
Off. rebound %
28.9%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.24
33.9%
3-point %
32.6%
73.5%
Assist %
73.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Japan   ■ South Korea
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Japan wins
4
South Korea wins
DateGameScore
06/10/23South Korea v Japan74-55
30/09/23Japan v South Korea83-77
14/08/17Japan v South Korea68-81
01/10/14South Korea v Japan71-63
25/11/10South Korea v Japan55-51
Japanlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/26HChina80-87
01/12/25AChinese Taipei80-73
28/11/25HChinese Taipei90-64
12/08/25HLebanon73-97
10/08/25AGuam102-63
08/08/25AIran70-78
06/08/25HSyria99-68
23/02/25AMongolia89-79
20/02/25AChina58-100
24/11/24AGuam83-78
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/26AChinese Taipei65-77
01/12/25HChina90-76
28/11/25AChina80-76
14/08/25AChina71-79
12/08/25HGuam99-66
10/08/25HLebanon97-86
08/08/25HQatar97-83
06/08/25AAustralia61-97
23/02/25AIndonesia90-63
20/02/25AThailand91-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Japan
World Cup 2027
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWL50%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%50%100%
Points / game83.385.080.0
Allowed / game74.775.573.0
Point differential+8.7+9.5+7.0
Avg total158.0160.5153.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
South Korea
World Cup 2027
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game78.390.072.5
Allowed / game76.376.076.5
Point differential+2.0+14.0-4.0
Avg total154.7166.0149.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Jordan330100%82.355.7+26.7
2 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
3 Croatia770100%94.369.6+24.7
4 Ivory Coast220100%93.069.5+23.5
5 Spain330100%83.363.7+19.7
6 Canada330100%100.382.7+17.7
7 Uruguay330100%79.362.0+17.3
8 Turkey330100%86.769.7+17.0
9 Angola220100%86.570.0+16.5
10 Brazil330100%84.770.7+14.0
11 Guinea330100%72.360.7+11.7
12 Mali220100%85.075.0+10.0
13 Australia330100%85.378.7+6.7
14 Poland330100%86.381.0+5.3
15 Colombia220100%83.078.0+5.0
16 Netherlands75271%80.474.4+6.0
17 Ukraine75271%80.174.7+5.4
18 Philippines32167%82.762.0+20.7
19 Argentina32167%76.359.3+17.0
20 Slovenia32167%95.378.7+16.7
21 South Sudan32167%81.364.7+16.7
22 Germany32167%86.775.3+11.3
23 Greece32167%77.366.3+11.0
24 Italy32167%83.773.0+10.7
25 Portugal32167%83.373.3+10.0
26 Iran32167%80.070.7+9.3
27 Lebanon32167%84.074.7+9.3
28 Qatar32167%86.377.0+9.3
29 Japan32167%83.374.7+8.7
30 Mexico32167%91.084.0+7.0
31 Saudi Arabia32167%73.367.3+6.0
32 Tunisia32167%74.770.0+4.7
33 France32167%76.372.3+4.0
34 Estonia32167%91.389.0+2.3
35 South Korea32167%78.376.3+2.0
36 Cameroon32167%71.369.7+1.7
37 Finland32167%78.777.0+1.7
38 Jamaica32167%95.093.7+1.3
39 Serbia32167%80.780.0+0.7
40 Iceland32167%83.783.7+0.0
41 Cape Verde32167%82.086.7-4.7
42 Montenegro32167%69.774.3-4.7
43 Czech Republic32167%84.390.3-6.0
44 Switzerland138562%74.267.8+6.4
45 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
46 Hungary74357%81.174.7+6.4
47 Romania116555%76.276.8-0.6
48 Senegal21150%89.578.0+11.5
49 Dominican Republic21150%90.087.0+3.0
50 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
51 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
52 D.R. Congo21150%73.087.5-14.5
53 Austria115645%84.678.8+5.8
54 Latvia31233%82.079.3+2.7
55 Israel31233%78.076.0+2.0
56 Bosnia & Herzegovina31233%75.775.7+0.0
57 Lithuania31233%85.085.3-0.3
58 New Zealand31233%75.076.3-1.3
59 China31233%79.783.3-3.7
60 Nigeria31233%69.375.3-6.0
61 Chinese Taipei31233%71.378.3-7.0
62 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
63 Georgia31233%76.384.3-8.0
64 Great Britain31233%78.388.7-10.3
65 Panama31233%75.386.0-10.7
66 Bahamas31233%87.3100.3-13.0
67 Syria31233%61.781.3-19.7
68 Denmark72529%74.481.6-7.1
69 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
70 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
71 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
72 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
73 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
74 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
75 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
76 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
77 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
78 Puerto Rico3030%89.095.0-6.0
79 Venezuela2020%81.087.0-6.0
80 Belgium3030%71.379.0-7.7
81 Egypt2020%74.584.5-10.0
82 Rwanda3030%68.378.7-10.3
83 Sweden3030%80.093.0-13.0
84 Chile3030%68.782.0-13.3
85 Libya3030%66.780.3-13.7
86 Iraq3030%69.786.0-16.3
87 Uganda2020%70.587.0-16.5
88 Madagascar2020%72.593.0-20.5
89 Cuba3030%66.089.7-23.7
90 India3030%60.385.0-24.7
91 Guam3030%65.791.7-26.0
92 Nicaragua1010%72.099.0-27.0
93 Cyprus3030%59.392.3-33.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Japan1527122478
South Korea1622171772
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