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Japan vs Lebanon Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 12 Aug 2025
Tip-off: 16:00
Final 73-97
19-23 22-30 23-28 9-16
Position#6
Record7-2
FormLWWLW
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game74.4
vs
Lebanon 🏆
Position#5
Record7-2
FormWWWLL
Points / game88.2
Allowed / game79.8
EuropeAsia Cup· King Abdullah Sports City
Other2023
Meetings · Japan v Lebanon
01 Mar 2027
JAPA v LEBA
upcoming
12 Aug 2025
JAPA73
LEBA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Japan winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Lebanon winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

JapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJapan
Date
Competition
South Korea
#5
L
55-74
55
74
-19
no box
A06/10
Asian Games
Guam
#14
W
77-56
77
56
+21
no box
H22/02
Asia Cup
China
#2
W
76-73
76
73
+3
no box
H25/02
Asia Cup
Mongolia
#15
W
93-75
93
75
+18
98avg 83
H21/11
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
83-78
83
78
+5
82avg 83
A24/11
Asia Cup
China
#2
L
58-100
58
100
-42
41avg 83
A20/02
Asia Cup
Mongolia
#15
W
89-79
89
79
+10
93avg 83
A23/02
Asia Cup
Syria
#20
W
99-68
99
68
+31
95avg 83
H06/08
Asia Cup
Iran
#3
L
70-78
70
78
-8
66avg 83
A08/08
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
102-63
102
63
+39
109avg 83
A10/08
Asia Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-19
7-22
18-18
12-15
17-12
18-24
20-8
22-12
19-20
19-18
17-13
21-22
22-22
25-14
20-15
26-24
20-15
28-16
20-22
15-25
12-19
21-31
12-19
13-31
23-22
23-22
21-18
22-17
18-13
14-28
28-10
39-17
13-16
21-18
24-24
12-20
27-15
25-18
26-19
24-11
154.6Avg total
80.2Scored
74.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)83.074.4157.4+8.678%
Season at home (4)86.268.0154.2+18.2100%
Season away (5)80.479.6160.0+0.860%
Last 10 (10)80.274.4154.6+5.870%
Last 5 (5)83.677.6161.2+6.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)70.684.6155.1-14.029%
vs Similar ◀ (6)80.886.0166.8-5.233%
vs Weaker (17)88.667.2155.8+21.594%
This opponent (Lebanon) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LebanonLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLebanon
Date
Competition
Iran
#51
W
81-73
81
73
+8
no box
A02/09
World Cup
Syria
#20
W
87-78
87
78
+9
no box
A23/02
Asia Cup
Bahrain
#25
W
94-63
94
63
+31
no box
H26/02
Asia Cup
United Arab Emirates
#19
W
99-77
99
77
+22
99avg 85
A22/11
Asia Cup
Syria
#20
W
89-64
89
64
+25
88avg 85
H25/11
Asia Cup
Bahrain
#25
W
84-78
84
78
+6
84avg 85
A21/02
Asia Cup
United Arab Emirates
#19
W
91-88
91
88
+3
96avg 85
H24/02
Asia Cup
Qatar
#13
W
84-80
84
80
+4
68avg 85
A06/08
Asia Cup
Australia
#1
L
80-93
80
93
-13
69avg 85
H08/08
Asia Cup
South Korea
#8
L
86-97
86
97
-11
82avg 85
A10/08
Asia Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-13
28-23
14-13
19-24
28-22
23-14
25-20
11-22
21-13
18-20
29-13
26-17
26-20
22-15
30-19
21-23
33-16
14-18
18-14
24-16
22-15
27-18
19-24
16-21
18-21
25-16
24-31
24-20
16-11
19-24
26-16
23-29
14-31
24-27
22-26
20-9
17-26
19-26
20-22
30-23
166.6Avg total
87.5Scored
79.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)88.279.8168.0+8.478%
Season at home (4)88.577.0165.5+11.575%
Season away (5)88.082.0170.0+6.080%
Last 10 (10)87.579.1166.6+8.480%
Last 5 (5)85.087.2172.2-2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)78.397.7176.0-19.317%
vs Similar ◀ (1)73.075.0148.0-2.00%
vs Weaker (23)88.476.0164.4+12.487%
This opponent (Japan) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +2.7+2.7Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +1.8+1.8Q3Q3: +4.0+4.0Q3: +2.9+2.9Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: +1.0+1.0
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +2.7+2.7Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +1.8+1.8Q3Q3: +4.0+4.0Q3: +2.9+2.9Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: +1.0+1.0
JapanLebanon
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
JapanLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Korea
#5
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A06/10
Asian Games
Guam
#14
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H22/02
Asia Cup
China
#2
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H25/02
Asia Cup
Mongolia
#15
W
47-36
47
36
+11
H21/11
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
48-31
48
31
+17
A24/11
Asia Cup
China
#2
L
33-50
33
50
-17
A20/02
Asia Cup
Mongolia
#15
W
46-44
46
44
+2
A23/02
Asia Cup
Syria
#20
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H06/08
Asia Cup
Iran
#3
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A08/08
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
52-33
52
33
+19
A10/08
Asia Cup
77.4Avg total
39.0Scored
38.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.638.879.5+1.847%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.336.778.0+4.650%-
Last 30 away (16)40.140.780.8-0.644%-
Last 10 (10)39.038.477.4+0.640%-
Last 5 (5)39.440.479.8-1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)34.144.378.4-10.114%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)33.545.579.0-12.00%-
vs Weaker (17)45.834.280.1+11.676%-
This opponent (Lebanon) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LebanonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iran
#51
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A02/09
World Cup
Syria
#20
W
51-36
51
36
+15
A23/02
Asia Cup
Bahrain
#25
W
39-33
39
33
+6
H26/02
Asia Cup
United Arab Emirates
#19
W
48-35
48
35
+13
A22/11
Asia Cup
Syria
#20
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H25/11
Asia Cup
Bahrain
#25
W
49-33
49
33
+16
A21/02
Asia Cup
United Arab Emirates
#19
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H24/02
Asia Cup
Qatar
#13
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A06/08
Asia Cup
Australia
#1
L
38-58
38
58
-20
H08/08
Asia Cup
South Korea
#8
L
36-52
36
52
-16
A10/08
Asia Cup
82.3Avg total
43.4Scored
38.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.239.381.6+2.963%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.539.479.9+1.164%-
Last 30 away (16)43.839.283.0+4.562%-
Last 10 (10)43.438.982.3+4.570%-
Last 5 (5)40.243.083.2-2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)36.052.088.0-16.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (1)28.038.066.0-10.00%-
vs Weaker (23)44.536.180.6+8.483%-
This opponent (Japan) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Japantheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Japan: 81.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀34%
🏀🏀🏀48%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers27.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.7 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers26.313.8
52.3%
49.3%27.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.313.2
34.5%
32.7%39.7
🏀 Free throws18.414.7
79.5%
70.1%14.7
They take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 59% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Lebanontheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lebanon: 88.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.1 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.825.6
55.8%
49.3%51.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.47.0
32.6%
32.7%21.0
🏀 Free throws21.015.9
75.7%
70.1%15.9
They take 67.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 9/9 games with a box score before 12 Aug 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Japan
WLWWLWWWWL
Lebanon
LLWWWWWWWW
#6
League position
#5
+10.7
Net rating
+11.1
108.0
Offensive rating
112.3
97.3
Defensive rating
101.2
52.0%
Effective FG%
53.6%
46.2%
Opp. effective FG%
50.0%
16.5%
Turnover %
17.4%
26.4%
Off. rebound %
32.7%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.31
34.5%
3-point %
32.6%
73.3%
Assist %
62.5%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence108.0 · 112.3Defence97.3 · 101.2Shooting52.0% · 53.6%3-point %34.5% · 32.6%Ball care16.5% · 17.4%Off. rebounds26.4% · 32.7%Free throws0.29 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)70% · 80%
■ Japan   ■ Lebanon
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Japan wins
0
Lebanon wins
No previous meetings.
Japanlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/08/25AGuam102-63
08/08/25AIran70-78
06/08/25HSyria99-68
23/02/25AMongolia89-79
20/02/25AChina58-100
24/11/24AGuam83-78
21/11/24HMongolia93-75
25/02/24HChina76-73
22/02/24HGuam77-56
06/10/23ASouth Korea55-74
Lebanonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/08/25ASouth Korea86-97
08/08/25HAustralia80-93
06/08/25AQatar84-80
24/02/25HUnited Arab Emirates91-88
21/02/25ABahrain84-78
25/11/24HSyria89-64
22/11/24AUnited Arab Emirates99-77
26/02/24HBahrain94-63
23/02/24ASyria87-78
02/09/23AIran81-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Japan
Asia Cup 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW78%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWLWLW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %78%100%60%
Points / game83.086.280.4
Allowed / game74.468.079.6
Point differential+8.6+18.2+0.8
Avg total157.4154.2160.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+56%75%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Lebanon
Asia Cup 2023
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL78%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayWWWWL80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %78%75%80%
Points / game88.288.588.0
Allowed / game79.877.082.0
Point differential+8.4+11.5+6.0
Avg total168.0165.5170.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Australia990100%101.465.6+35.9
2 China98189%90.365.7+24.7
3 Iran98189%76.752.2+24.4
4 New Zealand98189%93.170.9+22.2
5 Japan97278%83.074.4+8.6
6 Lebanon97278%88.279.8+8.4
7 South Korea107370%86.380.8+5.5
8 Jordan107370%75.971.9+4.0
9 Chinese Taipei128467%86.280.0+6.2
10 Philippines106460%87.477.2+10.2
11 Saudi Arabia106460%76.573.0+3.5
12 Thailand158753%83.083.1-0.1
13 Qatar147750%72.972.9+0.1
14 Guam178947%71.180.4-9.3
15 Mongolia136746%76.979.2-2.2
16 Iraq167944%72.675.6-3.0
17 Malaysia73443%74.075.7-1.7
18 Kuwait52340%73.270.2+3.0
19 United Arab Emirates114736%71.074.5-3.5
20 Syria93633%72.280.7-8.4
21 Kazakhstan62433%53.567.7-14.2
22 Palestine113827%69.073.7-4.7
23 India113827%68.282.1-13.9
24 Vietnam41325%68.070.8-2.8
25 Bahrain82625%75.082.2-7.2
26 Hong Kong112918%65.682.8-17.2
27 Oman5050%57.674.8-17.2
28 Singapore5050%57.476.4-19.0
29 Indonesia6060%62.896.0-33.2
30 Tahiti4040%52.889.8-37.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Japan192223973
Lebanon2330281697
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