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Karaganda vs Tobol Kostanay 2 Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 14 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 05:00
Final 83-65
17-15 23-18 22-10 21-22
Position#7
Record10-14
FormWLLWL
Points / game79.8
Allowed / game79.8
vs
Position#12
Record4-20
FormLLLLL
Points / game68.4
Allowed / game83.1
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Meetings · Karaganda v Tobol Kostanay 2
06 May 2026
KARA77
TOBO81
16 Apr 2026
KARA85
TOBO88
14 Apr 2026
KARA83
TOBO65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Karaganda winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Tobol Kostanay 2 winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · Karaganda
Needs player box scores: 6 games per player in the last year.
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 79.8
78.8▼ 1.0
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 79.8
78.0▼ 1.8
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 51%
51%▲ 0%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 17.8
17.8▲ 0.0
🔥 Form · Tobol Kostanay 2
Needs player box scores: 6 games per player in the last year.
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 68.4
61.4▼ 7.0
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 83.1
93.4▲ 10.3
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 44%
46%▲ 2%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 14.3
10.0▼ 4.3
KaragandaKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Aktobe
#4
L
79-82 OT
79
82
-3
H17/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
84-58
84
58
+26
H10/02
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
91-80
91
80
+11
A11/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
101-63
101
63
+38
H12/02
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
97-86
97
86
+11
A13/02
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
84-36
84
36
+48
H14/02
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
78-83
78
83
-5
A26/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
79-106
79
106
-27
H27/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
78-67
78
67
+11
A28/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
75-98
75
98
-23
H29/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-18
22-14
15-15
26-29
24-14
22-17
19-12
19-15
22-16
24-20
19-15
26-29
29-7
15-23
29-17
28-16
31-17
16-22
20-21
30-26
26-2
18-12
28-6
12-16
16-19
25-19
18-18
19-27
25-30
20-27
18-28
16-21
16-24
22-21
22-10
18-12
18-26
12-19
20-23
25-30
160.5Avg total
84.6Scored
75.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)79.879.8159.5+0.042%
Season at home (12)83.479.8163.2+3.633%
Season away (12)76.279.7155.8-3.550%
Last 10 (10)84.675.9160.5+8.760%
Last 5 (5)78.878.0156.8+0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)53.675.9129.5-22.30%
vs Similar (3)55.765.7121.3-10.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)87.967.9155.8+20.083%
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay 2) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Tobol Kostanay 2KazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
AiRom
#13
W
86-49
86
49
+37
A18/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
66-93
66
93
-27
H19/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
68-72 OT
68
72
-4
A20/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
88-56
88
56
+32
H21/01
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
45-70
45
70
-25
A02/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
51-85
51
85
-34
H03/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
63-85
63
85
-22
A04/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
86-92
86
92
-6
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
46-95
46
95
-49
A09/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
61-110
61
110
-49
H10/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-6
24-4
22-21
17-18
20-20
13-30
27-27
6-16
18-19
22-13
17-13
8-20
25-19
23-15
22-9
18-13
4-29
9-20
9-11
23-10
20-22
14-30
17-21
0-12
19-18
19-18
12-28
13-21
21-21
17-24
28-26
20-21
8-32
13-19
8-23
17-21
15-27
22-23
6-32
18-28
146.7Avg total
66.0Scored
80.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)68.483.1151.5-14.817%
Season at home (11)69.783.4153.1-13.627%
Season away (13)67.282.9150.2-15.78%
Last 10 (10)66.080.7146.7-14.720%
Last 5 (5)61.493.4154.8-32.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)63.488.2151.7-24.80%
vs Similar (8)68.674.2142.9-5.625%
vs Weaker (4)79.857.5137.2+22.275%
This opponent (Karaganda) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.7+4.7Q1: -4.0-4.0Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q3Q3: +4.3+4.3Q3: -4.3-4.3Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: -4.0-4.0
KaragandaTobol Kostanay 2
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
KaragandaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Aktobe
#4
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H17/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
46-31
46
31
+15
H10/02
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
46-36
46
36
+10
A11/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H12/02
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
47-39
47
39
+8
A13/02
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
44-14
44
14
+30
H14/02
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A26/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
45-57
45
57
-12
H27/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A28/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
30-45
30
45
-15
H29/03
Higher League
78.3Avg total
41.6Scored
36.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (26)38.539.978.3-1.446%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.637.878.5+2.854%-
Last 30 away (13)36.341.978.2-5.638%-
Last 10 (10)41.636.778.3+4.970%-
Last 5 (5)39.639.879.4-0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)31.246.077.2-14.88%-
vs Similar (2)45.037.582.5+7.5100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)44.634.278.8+10.475%-
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay 2) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Tobol Kostanay 2Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
AiRom
#13
W
47-10
47
10
+37
A18/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
33-50
33
50
-17
H19/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A20/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
48-34
48
34
+14
H21/01
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
13-49
13
49
-36
A02/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
34-52
34
52
-18
H03/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A04/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
38-45
38
45
-7
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
21-51
21
51
-30
A09/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
37-50
37
50
-13
H10/03
Higher League
75.8Avg total
34.9Scored
40.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.842.177.0-7.330%-
Last 30 at home (15)36.541.577.9-5.033%-
Last 30 away (15)33.242.876.0-9.627%-
Last 10 (10)34.940.975.8-6.040%-
Last 5 (5)33.646.880.4-13.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)32.546.679.1-14.117%-
vs Similar (8)36.139.875.9-3.638%-
vs Weaker (4)42.826.869.5+16.075%-
This opponent (Karaganda) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Karagandatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Karaganda: 77.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀64%
🏀🏀🏀18%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.5 pts a game · 64% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers14.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.824.8
60.7%
49.5%49.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.54.8
17.3%
28.5%14.2
🏀 Free throws17.513.8
78.6%
63.9%13.8
They take 68.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Tobol Kostanay 2their own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tobol Kostanay 2: 64.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.7 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.5 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.714.8
40.5%
49.5%29.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.38.2
27.8%
28.5%24.5
🏀 Free throws15.59.8
63.4%
63.9%9.8
They take 66.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 4/6 games with a box score before 14 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Karaganda
LWLLWWWWWL
Tobol Kostanay 2
LLLLLLWLLW
#7
League position
#12
-13.7
Net rating
-18.7
96.4
Offensive rating
83.7
110.1
Defensive rating
102.4
46.7%
Effective FG%
41.0%
50.2%
Opp. effective FG%
45.2%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.23
17.3%
3-point %
27.8%
60.2%
Assist %
62.3%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence96.4 · 83.7Defence110.1 · 102.4Shooting46.7% · 41.0%3-point %17.3% · 27.8%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.26 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)60% · 20%
■ Karaganda   ■ Tobol Kostanay 2
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Karaganda wins
0
Tobol Kostanay 2 wins
No previous meetings.
Karagandalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/03/26HBC Almaty 275-98
28/03/26ACHAMP1ON78-67
27/03/26HBC Almaty 279-106
26/03/26ACHAMP1ON78-83
14/02/26HPavlodar84-36
13/02/26AArlans97-86
12/02/26HAiRom101-63
11/02/26AArlans91-80
10/02/26HAiRom84-58
17/01/26HAktobe79-82 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/26HAktobe61-110
09/03/26AAktobe46-95
05/03/26HCHAMP1ON86-92
04/03/26ABC Almaty 263-85
03/03/26HCHAMP1ON51-85
02/03/26ABC Almaty 245-70
21/01/26HArlans88-56
20/01/26AAiRom68-72 OT
19/01/26HArlans66-93
18/01/26AAiRom86-49

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Karaganda
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL42%
HomeWWWLL33%
AwayLWWLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %42%33%50%
Points / game79.883.476.2
Allowed / game79.879.879.7
Point differential+0.0+3.6-3.5
Avg total159.5163.2155.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (4)0% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %8%17%0%
Tobol Kostanay 2
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL17%
HomeLWLLL27%
AwayWLLLL8%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241113
Win %17%27%8%
Points / game68.469.767.2
Allowed / game83.183.482.9
Point differential-14.8-13.6-15.7
Avg total151.5153.1150.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%27%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (4)-0% (4)
Overtime %8%0%15%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan25250100%89.060.3+28.6
2 Shymkent2522388%95.668.3+27.4
3 Aktobe2823582%83.067.5+15.6
4 Bars Petropavlovsk2419579%85.960.0+25.9
5 Atyrau 22517868%78.269.4+8.8
6 BC Almaty 22416867%83.573.1+10.5
7 CHAMP1ON24131154%74.773.3+1.4
8 ChelSU Kostanay24131154%76.480.0-3.6
9 Karaganda24101442%79.879.8+0.0
10 Tigers-KazATU24101442%67.575.7-8.2
11 Arlans2882029%73.683.0-9.4
12 AiRom2852318%63.282.5-19.3
13 Tobol Kostanay 22442017%68.483.1-14.8
14 Pavlodar242228%56.189.5-33.4
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2251244%54.683.4-28.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Karaganda1723222183
Tobol Kostanay 21518102265
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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