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Keilor Thunder vs Ballarat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Jun 2025
Tip-off: 10:00
Final 77-66
22-21 10-16 23-14 22-15
Position#15
Record4-9
FormLWLLL
Points / game81.0
Allowed / game91.3
vs
Position#5
Record7-5
FormLWLLW
Points / game88.2
Allowed / game95.0
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · Keilor Thunder v Ballarat
14 Jun 2025
KEIL77
BALL66
04 May 2024
KEIL83
BALL113
14 Apr 2023
KEIL95
BALL92
28 May 2022
KEIL80
BALL83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Keilor Thunder winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Ballarat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Keilor ThunderAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dandenong
#14
L
103-111
103
111
-8
A11/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
W
87-84
87
84
+3
H13/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
88-95
88
95
-7
A25/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
L
53-98
53
98
-45
A26/04
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
W
102-100
102
100
+2
H03/05
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
69-75
69
75
-6
A10/05
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
W
75-70
75
70
+5
H17/05
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
78-94
78
94
-16
H24/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
80-90
80
90
-10
H31/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
74-101
74
101
-27
A06/06
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-22
26-31
25-30
28-28
23-19
14-18
31-22
19-25
27-22
33-22
19-21
9-30
13-22
19-24
8-22
13-30
18-37
28-15
26-23
30-25
19-19
16-25
21-9
13-22
25-16
14-30
19-14
17-10
25-20
18-28
17-26
18-20
30-20
17-18
15-23
18-29
22-24
17-29
16-21
19-27
172.7Avg total
80.9Scored
91.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)81.091.3172.3-10.331%
Season at home (6)83.089.7172.7-6.750%
Season away (7)79.392.7172.0-13.414%
Last 10 (10)80.991.8172.7-10.930%
Last 5 (5)75.286.0161.2-10.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)81.492.5173.9-11.129%
vs Similar (9)84.485.1169.6-0.767%
vs Weaker (4)89.081.8170.8+7.275%
This opponent (Ballarat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BallaratAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NW Tasmania
#18
W
94-88
94
88
+6
A11/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
W
81-78
81
78
+3
A12/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
71-105
71
105
-34
A26/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
W
100-90
100
90
+10
H03/05
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
81-78
81
78
+3
H04/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
78-103
78
103
-25
H10/05
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
104-94
104
94
+10
H11/05
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
87-106
87
106
-19
A17/05
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
69-116
69
116
-47
H24/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
112-109
112
109
+3
A31/05
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-28
24-21
27-12
27-27
19-22
14-14
20-23
28-19
12-22
21-32
20-24
18-27
31-23
27-21
23-22
19-24
25-18
22-12
14-21
20-27
24-24
16-22
12-29
26-28
20-29
20-31
34-17
30-17
26-25
15-20
24-33
22-28
11-42
18-31
19-20
21-23
33-27
31-31
20-30
28-21
184.4Avg total
87.7Scored
96.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)88.295.0183.2-6.858%
Season at home (6)90.292.7182.8-2.567%
Season away (6)86.297.3183.5-11.250%
Last 10 (10)87.796.7184.4-9.060%
Last 5 (5)90.0105.6195.6-15.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)78.996.8175.7-17.927%
vs Similar (6)88.886.2175.0+2.767%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)91.885.8177.7+6.085%
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: -4.3-4.3Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: -6.2-6.2Q4: -0.2-0.2
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: -4.3-4.3Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: -6.2-6.2Q4: -0.2-0.2
Keilor ThunderBallarat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Keilor ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dandenong
#14
L
50-53
50
53
-3
A11/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
D
37-37
37
37
+0
H13/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
W
60-44
60
44
+16
A25/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A26/04
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
L
46-52
46
52
-6
H03/05
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A10/05
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
L
39-46
39
46
-7
H17/05
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H24/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H31/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A06/06
NBL1 South
88.9Avg total
42.8Scored
46.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.745.287.0-3.533%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.345.486.7-4.133%-
Last 30 away (15)42.145.187.2-2.933%-
Last 10 (10)42.846.188.9-3.320%-
Last 5 (5)40.645.886.4-5.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)41.146.887.9-5.629%-
vs Similar (9)42.344.987.2-2.633%-
vs Weaker (4)43.039.582.5+3.550%-
This opponent (Ballarat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BallaratLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NW Tasmania
#18
L
40-49
40
49
-9
A11/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A12/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
33-54
33
54
-21
A26/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
W
58-44
58
44
+14
H03/05
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
47-30
47
30
+17
H04/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
40-46
40
46
-6
H10/05
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
L
40-60
40
60
-20
H11/05
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A17/05
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
29-73
29
73
-44
H24/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
64-58
64
58
+6
A31/05
NBL1 South
92.0Avg total
42.5Scored
49.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.545.489.0-1.943%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.943.387.2+0.547%-
Last 30 away (15)43.247.590.7-4.340%-
Last 10 (10)42.549.592.0-7.030%-
Last 5 (5)42.856.499.2-13.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)37.548.285.7-10.627%-
vs Similar (6)45.243.088.2+2.233%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)47.844.292.1+3.662%-
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Keilor Thunder wins
2
Ballarat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/06/25AMelbourne Tigers74-101
31/05/25HCasey Cavaliers80-90
24/05/25HKilsyth78-94
17/05/25HWaverley75-70
10/05/25AKnox69-75
03/05/25HNunawading102-100
26/04/25ANW Tasmania53-98
25/04/25AHobart Chargers88-95
13/04/25HFrankston87-84
11/04/25ADandenong103-111
Ballaratlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/05/25ABendigo Braves112-109
24/05/25HMt Gambier69-116
17/05/25ASandringham Sabres87-106
11/05/25HDiamond Valley104-94
10/05/25HMelbourne Tigers78-103
04/05/25HNW Tasmania81-78
03/05/25HWaverley100-90
26/04/25AEltham71-105
12/04/25AHobart Chargers81-78
11/04/25ANW Tasmania94-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Keilor Thunder
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL31%
HomeWWWLL50%
AwayLLLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %31%50%14%
Points / game81.083.079.3
Allowed / game91.389.792.7
Point differential-10.3-6.7-13.4
Avg total172.3172.7172.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+8%0%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (3)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Ballarat
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW58%
HomeWWLWL67%
AwayWWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %58%67%50%
Points / game88.290.286.2
Allowed / game95.092.797.3
Point differential-6.8-2.5-11.2
Avg total183.2182.8183.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox1312192%92.877.9+14.9
2 Mt Gambier1410471%97.084.3+12.7
3 Casey Cavaliers149564%89.283.3+5.9
4 Frankston138562%91.885.5+6.3
5 Hobart Chargers138562%86.582.5+3.9
6 Melbourne Tigers127558%87.279.2+8.1
7 Eltham127558%86.085.4+0.6
8 Ballarat127558%88.295.0-6.8
9 Nunawading137654%86.187.8-1.7
10 Kilsyth158753%86.685.9+0.7
11 Bendigo Braves157847%87.394.7-7.5
12 Waverley146843%91.195.2-4.1
13 Geelong125742%81.686.1-4.5
14 Sandringham Sabres125742%87.491.9-4.5
15 Ringwood135838%94.290.5+3.7
16 Diamond Valley134931%85.793.1-7.4
17 Keilor Thunder134931%81.091.3-10.3
18 NW Tasmania1331023%85.688.7-3.1
19 Dandenong1431121%87.894.9-7.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Keilor Thunder2210232277
Ballarat2116141566
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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