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Keilor Thunder vs Ballarat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 04 May 2024
Tip-off: 10:00
Final 83-113
21-33 15-22 20-28 27-30
Position#10
Record5-3
FormWLWWW
Points / game96.1
Allowed / game99.1
vs
Position#5
Record4-2
FormLWWLW
Points / game96.0
Allowed / game86.5
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2024
Meetings · Keilor Thunder v Ballarat
14 Jun 2025
KEIL77
BALL66
04 May 2024
KEIL83
BALL113
14 Apr 2023
KEIL95
BALL92
28 May 2022
KEIL80
BALL83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Keilor Thunder winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Ballarat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Keilor ThunderAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong
#10
L
85-116
85
116
-31
A15/07
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
L
63-98
63
98
-35
A16/07
NBL1 South
Frankston
#4
L
98-115
98
115
-17
A05/04
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#18
W
110-106
110
106
+4
A09/04
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#16
L
81-108
81
108
-27
A11/04
NBL1 South
Geelong
#11
W
103-97
103
97
+6
H14/04
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
L
69-87
69
87
-18
H20/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#14
W
105-96
105
96
+9
H21/04
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#1
W
96-83
96
83
+13
A26/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#12
W
107-101
107
101
+6
H28/04
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-28
17-40
19-25
22-23
18-24
21-29
11-22
13-23
21-38
34-23
18-32
25-22
26-20
23-25
36-28
25-33
28-28
19-22
16-27
18-31
28-25
16-25
33-19
26-28
20-17
18-24
15-27
16-19
32-30
24-22
28-23
21-21
27-24
26-26
25-10
18-23
35-23
19-25
32-32
21-21
192.4Avg total
91.7Scored
100.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)96.199.1195.2-3.062%
Season at home (4)96.095.2191.2+0.875%
Season away (4)96.2103.0199.2-6.850%
Last 10 (10)91.7100.7192.4-9.050%
Last 5 (5)96.092.8188.8+3.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)89.096.8185.8-7.738%
vs Similar (6)89.289.7178.8-0.567%
vs Weaker (3)86.7100.3187.0-13.733%
This opponent (Ballarat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BallaratAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham
#5
W
82-68
82
68
+14
H02/07
NBL1 South
Geelong
#10
W
107-104
107
104
+3
A08/07
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#7
W
105-87
105
87
+18
H09/07
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#13
L
93-99
93
99
-6
A15/07
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#15
W
97-86
97
86
+11
H03/04
NBL1 South
Geelong
#11
L
79-81
79
81
-2
H07/04
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#1
W
105-94
105
94
+11
A14/04
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#17
W
112-81
112
81
+31
H20/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#14
L
95-98
95
98
-3
A26/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#9
W
88-79
88
79
+9
A27/04
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-13
20-21
17-16
20-18
32-28
26-16
25-30
24-30
31-24
29-29
19-18
26-16
23-27
19-27
25-24
26-21
20-20
22-18
22-22
33-26
18-18
25-18
19-23
17-22
30-28
23-26
26-20
26-20
32-14
28-23
24-31
28-13
26-29
27-31
23-17
19-21
19-14
21-23
23-25
25-17
184.0Avg total
96.3Scored
87.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)96.086.5182.5+9.567%
Season at home (3)96.082.7178.7+13.367%
Season away (3)96.090.3186.3+5.767%
Last 10 (10)96.387.7184.0+8.670%
Last 5 (5)95.886.6182.4+9.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)86.996.1183.0-9.233%
vs Similar (10)95.193.1188.2+2.060%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)97.589.5187.0+8.164%
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +4.1+4.1Q2Q2: -4.4-4.4Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: -0.3-0.3Q4Q4: -3.9-3.9Q4: +4.0+4.0
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +4.1+4.1Q2Q2: -4.4-4.4Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: -0.3-0.3Q4Q4: -3.9-3.9Q4: +4.0+4.0
Keilor ThunderBallarat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Keilor ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong
#10
L
44-68
44
68
-24
A15/07
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A16/07
NBL1 South
Frankston
#4
L
55-61
55
61
-6
A05/04
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#18
W
49-45
49
45
+4
A09/04
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#16
L
47-50
47
50
-3
A11/04
NBL1 South
Geelong
#11
L
44-50
44
50
-6
H14/04
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H20/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#14
W
56-52
56
52
+4
H21/04
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#1
W
53-50
53
50
+3
A26/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#12
W
54-48
54
48
+6
H28/04
NBL1 South
99.7Avg total
47.9Scored
51.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.148.996.0-1.843%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.845.392.1+1.547%-
Last 30 away (15)47.352.599.8-5.140%-
Last 10 (10)47.951.899.7-3.940%-
Last 5 (5)49.048.297.2+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)47.750.297.9-2.643%-
vs Similar (6)46.246.092.2+0.250%-
vs Weaker (3)44.745.390.0-0.733%-
This opponent (Ballarat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BallaratLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham
#5
W
45-34
45
34
+11
H02/07
NBL1 South
Geelong
#10
W
58-44
58
44
+14
A08/07
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#7
W
60-53
60
53
+7
H09/07
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#13
L
42-54
42
54
-12
A15/07
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#15
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H03/04
NBL1 South
Geelong
#11
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H07/04
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#1
L
53-54
53
54
-1
A14/04
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#17
W
60-37
60
37
+23
H20/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#14
L
53-60
53
60
-7
A26/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#9
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A27/04
NBL1 South
94.3Avg total
49.6Scored
44.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.947.295.1+0.750%-
Last 30 at home (15)50.044.994.9+5.173%-
Last 30 away (15)45.749.595.2-3.727%-
Last 10 (10)49.644.794.3+4.970%-
Last 5 (5)49.844.894.6+5.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)48.348.997.2-0.633%-
vs Similar (10)46.644.691.2+2.070%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)48.648.296.8+0.545%-
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Keilor Thunder wins
1
Ballarat wins
DateGameScore
14/04/23Keilor Thunder v Ballarat95-92
09/07/22Ballarat v Keilor Thunder68-88
28/05/22Keilor Thunder v Ballarat80-83
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/04/24HWaverley107-101
26/04/24AMt Gambier96-83
21/04/24HNW Tasmania105-96
20/04/24HCasey Cavaliers69-87
14/04/24HGeelong103-97
11/04/24AKilsyth81-108
09/04/24ADiamond Valley110-106
05/04/24AFrankston98-115
16/07/23ACasey Cavaliers63-98
15/07/23AGeelong85-116
Ballaratlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/04/24AHobart Chargers88-79
26/04/24ANW Tasmania95-98
20/04/24HRingwood112-81
14/04/24AMt Gambier105-94
07/04/24HGeelong79-81
03/04/24HBendigo Braves97-86
15/07/23ABendigo Braves93-99
09/07/23HDiamond Valley105-87
08/07/23AGeelong107-104
02/07/23HEltham82-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Keilor Thunder
NBL1 South 2024
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW62%
HomeWLWW75%
AwayLWLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %62%75%50%
Points / game96.196.096.2
Allowed / game99.195.2103.0
Point differential-3.0+0.8-6.8
Avg total195.2191.2199.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%0%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Ballarat
NBL1 South 2024
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW67%
HomeWLW67%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game96.096.096.0
Allowed / game86.582.790.3
Point differential+9.5+13.3+5.7
Avg total182.5178.7186.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%67%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Mt Gambier75271%88.385.0+3.3
2 Knox64267%96.580.8+15.7
3 Eltham64267%93.579.2+14.3
4 Ballarat64267%96.086.5+9.5
5 Frankston85362%92.283.1+9.1
6 Nunawading85362%85.582.4+3.1
7 Hobart Chargers85362%81.480.5+0.9
8 Keilor Thunder85362%96.199.1-3.0
9 Dandenong95456%83.180.1+3.0
10 Ringwood95456%87.388.8-1.4
11 Sandringham Sabres84450%92.882.6+10.1
12 Waverley84450%88.185.6+2.5
13 Bendigo Braves73443%80.187.3-7.1
14 Melbourne Tigers83538%78.585.2-6.8
15 NW Tasmania83538%83.991.8-7.9
16 Geelong62433%80.284.2-4.0
17 Casey Cavaliers72529%81.684.4-2.9
18 Kilsyth61517%77.098.2-21.2
19 Diamond Valley71614%82.199.0-16.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Keilor Thunder2115202783
Ballarat33222830113
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