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Kentucky vs North Carolina Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 03 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 02:30
Final 64-67
31-31 33-36
Position#107
Record5-2
FormLWLWW
Points / game89.9
Allowed / game63.1
vs
Position#45
Record6-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game83.3
Allowed / game65.7
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Kentucky v North Carolina
19 Dec 2026
KENT v NORT
upcoming
02 Dec 2025
KENT64
NORT67
16 Dec 2023
KENT87
NORT83
18 Dec 2021
KENT98
NORT69
19 Dec 2020
KENT63
NORT75
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kentucky winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
North Carolina winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

KentuckyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#68
W
76-57
76
57
+19
H21/03
NCAA
Illinois
#100
W
84-75
84
75
+9
H23/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#23
L
65-78
65
78
-13
A28/03
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
77-51
77
51
+26
H05/11
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
107-59
107
59
+48
H08/11
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
88-96
88
96
-8
A12/11
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#285
W
99-53
99
53
+46
H15/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
66-83
66
83
-17
H18/11
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#314
W
88-46
88
46
+42
H22/11
NCAA
Tennessee Tech
#270
W
104-54
104
54
+50
H27/11
NCAA
1H
2H
35-27
41-30
37-32
47-43
28-43
37-35
28-15
49-36
58-26
49-33
46-53
42-43
47-19
52-34
27-44
39-39
50-20
38-26
43-28
61-26
150.6Avg total
85.4Scored
65.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)89.963.1153.0+26.771%
Season at home (6)90.257.7147.8+32.583%
Season away (1)88.096.0184.0-8.00%
Last 10 (10)85.465.2150.6+20.270%
Last 5 (5)89.066.4155.4+22.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)84.593.2177.8-8.825%
vs Similar ◀ (19)80.280.9161.2-0.753%
vs Weaker (7)92.954.9147.7+38.0100%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Duke
#7
L
71-74
71
74
-3
A14/03
NCAA
San Diego State
#65
W
95-68
95
68
+27
A19/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#73
L
64-71
64
71
-7
A21/03
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
94-54
94
54
+40
H04/11
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
87-74
87
74
+13
H08/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
89-74
89
74
+15
H12/11
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
97-53
97
53
+44
H15/11
NCAA
Navy
#24
W
73-61
73
61
+12
H19/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
85-70
85
70
+15
H25/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
58-74
58
74
-16
A27/11
NCAA
1H
2H
24-45
47-29
47-23
48-45
26-44
38-27
51-23
43-31
29-37
58-37
44-31
45-43
39-24
58-29
38-31
35-30
35-33
50-37
28-33
30-41
148.6Avg total
81.3Scored
67.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)83.365.7149.0+17.686%
Season at home (6)87.564.3151.8+23.2100%
Season away (1)58.074.0132.0-16.00%
Last 10 (10)81.367.3148.6+14.070%
Last 5 (5)80.466.4146.8+14.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)68.882.0150.8-13.20%
vs Similar ◀ (13)75.367.7143.0+7.662%
vs Weaker (13)86.269.2155.5+17.0100%
This opponent (Kentucky) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +9.2+9.21st half: +3.7+3.72nd half2nd half: +11.0+11.02nd half: +10.3+10.3
-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +9.2+9.21st half: +3.7+3.72nd half2nd half: +11.0+11.02nd half: +10.3+10.3
KentuckyNorth Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
KentuckyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#68
W
35-27
35
27
+8
H21/03
NCAA
Illinois
#100
W
37-32
37
32
+5
H23/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#23
L
28-43
28
43
-15
A28/03
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
28-15
28
15
+13
H05/11
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
58-26
58
26
+32
H08/11
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
46-53
46
53
-7
A12/11
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#285
W
47-19
47
19
+28
H15/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
27-44
27
44
-17
H18/11
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#314
W
50-20
50
20
+30
H22/11
NCAA
Tennessee Tech
#270
W
43-28
43
28
+15
H27/11
NCAA
70.6Avg total
39.9Scored
30.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.336.275.5+3.060%-
Last 30 at home (18)40.731.872.6+8.978%-
Last 30 away (12)37.142.879.9-5.833%-
Last 10 (10)39.930.770.6+9.270%-
Last 5 (5)42.632.875.4+9.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)39.847.086.8-7.225%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)37.439.476.8-2.153%-
vs Weaker (7)44.121.465.6+22.7100%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Duke
#7
L
24-45
24
45
-21
A14/03
NCAA
San Diego State
#65
W
47-23
47
23
+24
A19/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#73
L
26-44
26
44
-18
A21/03
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
51-23
51
23
+28
H04/11
NCAA
Kansas
#58
L
29-37
29
37
-8
H08/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
44-31
44
31
+13
H12/11
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H15/11
NCAA
Navy
#24
W
38-31
38
31
+7
H19/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H25/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
28-33
28
33
-5
A27/11
NCAA
68.5Avg total
36.1Scored
32.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.533.672.1+4.977%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.431.773.1+9.788%-
Last 30 away (14)35.235.871.0-0.664%-
Last 10 (10)36.132.468.5+3.760%-
Last 5 (5)36.830.467.2+6.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)31.046.077.0-15.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)37.031.968.9+5.177%-
vs Weaker (13)42.331.573.8+10.8100%-
This opponent (Kentucky) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Kentucky wins
1
North Carolina wins
DateGameScore
16/12/23Kentucky v North Carolina87-83
18/12/21Kentucky v North Carolina98-69
19/12/20Kentucky v North Carolina63-75
Kentuckylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/11/25HTennessee Tech104-54
22/11/25HLoyola Maryland88-46
18/11/25HMichigan State66-83
15/11/25HEastern Illinois99-53
12/11/25ALouisville88-96
08/11/25HValparaiso107-59
05/11/25HNicholls State77-51
28/03/25ATennessee65-78
23/03/25HIllinois84-75
21/03/25HTroy76-57
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/11/25AMichigan State58-74
25/11/25HSt. Bonaventure85-70
19/11/25HNavy73-61
15/11/25HN. Carolina Central97-53
12/11/25HRadford89-74
08/11/25HKansas87-74
04/11/25HCentral Arkansas94-54
21/03/25AOle Miss64-71
19/03/25ASan Diego State95-68
14/03/25ADuke71-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Kentucky
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW71%
HomeWWLWW83%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games761
Win %71%83%0%
Points / game89.990.288.0
Allowed / game63.157.796.0
Point differential+26.7+32.5-8.0
Avg total153.0147.8184.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+71%83%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
North Carolina
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL86%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games761
Win %86%100%0%
Points / game83.387.558.0
Allowed / game65.764.374.0
Point differential+17.6+23.2-16.0
Avg total149.0151.8132.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+86%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 LSU770100%94.368.3+26.0
2 Vanderbilt880100%97.973.5+24.4
3 Georgia98189%99.971.2+28.7
4 Missouri98189%90.469.0+21.4
5 Tennessee97278%83.065.0+18.0
6 Texas A&M97278%92.275.1+17.1
7 Texas86275%90.971.9+19.0
8 Auburn86275%88.574.6+13.9
9 Oklahoma86275%86.573.6+12.9
10 Kentucky75271%89.963.1+26.7
11 Arkansas75271%88.171.6+16.6
12 Alabama75271%95.682.0+13.6
13 Florida85362%83.471.9+11.5
14 South Carolina85362%81.072.0+9.0
15 Ole Miss85362%77.568.6+8.9
16 Mississippi St.74357%82.079.0+3.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisville770100%96.763.0+33.7
2 Duke990100%89.159.6+29.6
3 SMU Mustangs880100%92.074.0+18.0
4 Clemson87188%85.263.8+21.5
5 Stanford87188%82.971.9+11.0
6 North Carolina76186%83.365.7+17.6
7 California76186%84.469.6+14.9
8 Miami (FL)97278%85.365.4+19.9
9 Virginia Tech97278%83.074.9+8.1
10 Virginia86275%83.472.4+11.0
11 NC State75271%93.676.6+17.0
12 Wake Forest96367%85.273.4+11.8
13 Notre Dame96367%75.467.7+7.8
14 Syracuse85362%73.264.6+8.6
15 Florida State85362%86.478.0+8.4
16 Georgia Tech85362%71.567.5+4.0
17 Pittsburgh95456%71.768.1+3.6
18 Boston College84450%70.565.6+4.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Kentucky313364
North Carolina313667
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