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Kentucky vs North Carolina Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 19 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 19:30
Scheduled
Position#136
Record3-1
FormLWWLW
Points / game80.2
Allowed / game75.8
vs
Position#116
Record3-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game83.8
Allowed / game70.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Kentucky v North Carolina
19 Dec 2026
KENT v NORT
upcoming
02 Dec 2025
KENT64
NORT67
16 Dec 2023
KENT87
NORT83
18 Dec 2021
KENT98
NORT69
19 Dec 2020
KENT63
NORT75
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kentucky win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
North Carolina win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

KentuckyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida
#28
L
77-84
77
84
-7
H07/03
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
87-82
87
82
+5
H11/03
NCAA
Missouri
#111
W
78-72
78
72
+6
A12/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
63-71
63
71
-8
A13/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
W
89-84 OT
89
84
+5
H20/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
63-82
63
82
-19
A22/03
NCAA
Manhattan
#320
W
85-57
85
57
+28
H04/11
NCAA
James Madison
#286
W
89-80
89
80
+9
H07/11
NCAA
Kansas
#10
L
69-89
69
89
-20
H11/11
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#378
W
78-77
78
77
+1
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-49
45-35
46-43
41-39
38-29
40-43
28-37
35-34
29-31
44-42
30-31
33-51
48-22
37-35
39-39
50-41
36-46
33-43
45-37
33-40
155.6Avg total
77.8Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)80.275.8156.0+4.575%
Season at home (4)80.275.8156.0+4.575%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)77.877.8155.6+0.060%
Last 5 (5)76.877.0153.8-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)71.682.1153.7-10.614%
vs Similar (16)79.877.6157.3+2.269%
vs Weaker (7)83.970.4154.3+13.4100%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
77-74
77
74
+3
H24/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
89-82
89
82
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-63
67
63
+4
H04/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
61-76
61
76
-15
A07/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
79-80
79
80
-1
H13/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
78-82 OT
78
82
-4
H19/03
NCAA
Western Carolina
#189
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H03/11
NCAA
Wofford
#257
W
109-70
109
70
+39
H07/11
NCAA
Wyoming
#94
W
76-63
76
63
+13
H11/11
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
70-78
70
78
-8
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-38
38-36
44-44
45-38
27-30
40-33
34-39
27-37
31-39
48-41
39-28
36-47
39-30
41-42
51-34
58-36
31-29
45-34
31-38
39-40
152.6Avg total
78.6Scored
74.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.870.8154.5+13.075%
Season at home (4)83.870.8154.5+13.075%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.674.0152.6+4.660%
Last 5 (5)82.673.0155.6+9.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)69.369.0138.3+0.367%
vs Similar (14)74.075.6149.6-1.650%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)87.670.8158.5+16.892%
This opponent (Kentucky) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +0.7+0.71st half: +1.7+1.72nd half2nd half: -1.2-1.22nd half: +3.3+3.3
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +0.7+0.71st half: +1.7+1.72nd half2nd half: -1.2-1.22nd half: +3.3+3.3
KentuckyNorth Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
KentuckyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida
#28
L
32-49
32
49
-17
H07/03
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H11/03
NCAA
Missouri
#111
W
38-29
38
29
+9
A12/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A13/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H20/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
30-31
30
31
-1
A22/03
NCAA
Manhattan
#320
W
48-22
48
22
+26
H04/11
NCAA
James Madison
#286
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H07/11
NCAA
Kansas
#10
L
36-46
36
46
-10
H11/11
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#378
W
45-37
45
37
+8
H14/11
NCAA
73.5Avg total
37.1Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.437.072.3-1.640%-
Last 30 at home (18)37.736.774.4+1.144%-
Last 30 away (12)31.837.469.2-5.633%-
Last 10 (10)37.136.473.5+0.740%-
Last 5 (5)39.635.074.6+4.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)32.740.072.7-7.314%-
vs Similar (16)34.638.172.7-3.631%-
vs Weaker (7)39.931.371.1+8.686%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H24/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H01/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
27-30
27
30
-3
H04/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A07/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H13/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H19/03
NCAA
Western Carolina
#189
W
39-30
39
30
+9
H03/11
NCAA
Wofford
#257
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H07/11
NCAA
Wyoming
#94
W
31-29
31
29
+2
H11/11
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H14/11
NCAA
71.5Avg total
36.6Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.635.874.5+2.860%-
Last 30 at home (19)39.633.873.4+5.774%-
Last 30 away (11)37.039.376.3-2.336%-
Last 10 (10)36.634.971.5+1.750%-
Last 5 (5)38.231.870.0+6.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)31.336.367.7-5.033%-
vs Similar (14)34.636.971.5-2.236%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)44.634.679.2+10.092%-
This opponent (Kentucky) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Kentucky wins
2
North Carolina wins
Kentuckylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HNorthern Arizona78-77
11/11/26HKansas69-89
07/11/26HJames Madison89-80
04/11/26HManhattan85-57
22/03/26AIowa State63-82
20/03/26HSanta Clara89-84 OT
13/03/26AFlorida63-71
12/03/26AMissouri78-72
11/03/26HLSU87-82
07/03/26HFlorida77-84
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HGeorgia70-78
11/11/26HWyoming76-63
07/11/26HWofford109-70
03/11/26HWestern Carolina80-72
19/03/26HVCU Rams78-82 OT
13/03/26HClemson79-80
07/03/26ADuke61-76
04/03/26HClemson67-63
01/03/26HVirginia Tech89-82
24/02/26HLouisville77-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Kentucky
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLW75%
HomeWWLW75%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %75%75%-
Points / game80.280.2-
Allowed / game75.875.8-
Point differential+4.5+4.5-
Avg total156.0156.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%25%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
North Carolina
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWL75%
HomeWWWL75%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %75%75%-
Points / game83.883.8-
Allowed / game70.870.8-
Point differential+13.0+13.0-
Avg total154.5154.5-
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas330100%100.057.0+43.0
2 Ole Miss330100%94.056.3+37.7
3 Texas A&M440100%99.267.2+32.0
4 LSU440100%90.859.5+31.2
5 Vanderbilt440100%90.260.2+30.0
6 South Carolina440100%78.856.5+22.2
7 Alabama440100%97.076.0+21.0
8 Florida440100%82.262.5+19.8
9 Tennessee330100%81.061.3+19.7
10 Georgia440100%81.870.2+11.5
11 Mississippi St.43175%87.267.5+19.8
12 Arkansas43175%83.267.8+15.5
13 Oklahoma43175%75.863.8+12.0
14 Kentucky43175%80.275.8+4.5
15 Missouri32167%97.066.0+31.0
16 Auburn32167%78.764.0+14.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 SMU Mustangs440100%92.067.5+24.5
2 Notre Dame440100%87.564.2+23.2
3 Virginia550100%91.869.6+22.2
4 Virginia Tech440100%89.867.8+22.0
5 NC State440100%83.862.2+21.5
6 Boston College440100%74.053.5+20.5
7 Pittsburgh440100%83.264.5+18.8
8 Georgia Tech440100%82.570.8+11.8
9 California54180%85.874.8+11.0
10 Duke43175%90.057.0+33.0
11 Miami (FL)43175%83.259.2+24.0
12 Wake Forest43175%76.262.8+13.5
13 North Carolina43175%83.870.8+13.0
14 Stanford43175%78.569.2+9.2
15 Clemson43175%84.276.8+7.5
16 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
17 Louisville32167%89.775.0+14.7
18 Florida State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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