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Duke vs North Carolina Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 14 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 74-71
45-24 29-47
Position#7
Record29-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game83.3
Allowed / game61.6
Duke 🏆
USA
vs
North Carolina
USA
Position#111
Record22-12
FormWWLWW
Points / game81.1
Allowed / game75.0
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Duke v North Carolina
07 Mar 2026
DUKE76
NORT61
14 Mar 2025
DUKE74
NORT71
01 Feb 2025
DUKE87
NORT70
09 Mar 2024
DUKE79
NORT84
04 Feb 2023
DUKE63
NORT57
02 Apr 2022
DUKE77
NORT81
05 Mar 2022
DUKE81
NORT94
06 Feb 2021
DUKE87
NORT91
07 Mar 2020
DUKE89
NORT76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
North Carolina winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#22
L
71-77
71
77
-6
A08/02
NCAA
California
#268
W
78-57
78
57
+21
H13/02
NCAA
Stanford
#127
W
106-70
106
70
+36
H15/02
NCAA
Virginia
#230
W
80-62
80
62
+18
A18/02
NCAA
Illinois
#100
W
110-67
110
67
+43
A23/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
97-60
97
60
+37
A26/02
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
100-65
100
65
+35
H02/03
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
W
93-60
93
60
+33
H04/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#111
W
82-69
82
69
+13
A08/03
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#196
W
78-70
78
70
+8
H13/03
NCAA
1H
2H
41-35
30-42
38-23
40-34
49-34
57-36
43-29
37-33
54-37
56-30
47-32
50-28
47-30
53-35
40-27
53-33
43-42
39-27
26-31
52-39
155.2Avg total
89.5Scored
65.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)83.361.6144.9+21.791%
Season at home (20)83.861.3145.1+22.590%
Season away (12)82.562.2144.7+20.392%
Last 10 (10)89.565.7155.2+23.890%
Last 5 (5)90.064.8154.8+25.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)82.361.7144.0+20.690%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#22
L
65-85
65
85
-20
A11/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
88-82
88
82
+6
A15/02
NCAA
NC State
#293
W
97-73
97
73
+24
H20/02
NCAA
Virginia
#230
W
81-66
81
66
+15
H22/02
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
96-85
96
85
+11
A25/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
92-73
92
73
+19
H01/03
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#286
W
91-59
91
59
+32
A05/03
NCAA
Duke
#7
L
69-82
69
82
-13
H08/03
NCAA
Notre Dame
#241
W
76-56
76
56
+20
H12/03
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
W
68-59
68
59
+9
A13/03
NCAA
1H
2H
33-49
32-36
42-34
46-48
54-26
43-47
46-34
35-32
49-43
47-42
46-31
46-42
46-29
45-30
42-43
27-39
43-29
33-27
33-31
35-28
154.3Avg total
82.3Scored
72.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (34)81.175.0156.1+6.165%
Season at home (19)84.574.3158.7+10.274%
Season away (15)76.875.9152.7+0.953%
Last 10 (10)82.372.0154.3+10.380%
Last 5 (5)79.265.8145.0+13.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)75.287.2162.3-12.00%
vs Similar (11)75.775.1150.8+0.655%
vs Weaker (13)84.669.9154.5+14.7100%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-16-8+0+8+161st half1st half: +10.8+10.81st half: +8.5+8.52nd half2nd half: +13.0+13.02nd half: +1.8+1.8
-16-8+0+8+161st half1st half: +10.8+10.81st half: +8.5+8.52nd half2nd half: +13.0+13.02nd half: +1.8+1.8
DukeNorth Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#22
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A08/02
NCAA
California
#268
W
38-23
38
23
+15
H13/02
NCAA
Stanford
#127
W
49-34
49
34
+15
H15/02
NCAA
Virginia
#230
W
43-29
43
29
+14
A18/02
NCAA
Illinois
#100
W
54-37
54
37
+17
A23/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
47-32
47
32
+15
A26/02
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
47-30
47
30
+17
H02/03
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
W
40-27
40
27
+13
H04/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#111
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A08/03
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#196
L
26-31
26
31
-5
H13/03
NCAA
74.8Avg total
42.8Scored
32.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.129.970.0+10.287%-
Last 30 at home (18)39.728.368.0+11.383%-
Last 30 away (12)40.832.272.9+8.692%-
Last 10 (10)42.832.074.8+10.890%-
Last 5 (5)40.632.473.0+8.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)40.129.970.0+10.287%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#22
L
33-49
33
49
-16
A11/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A15/02
NCAA
NC State
#293
W
54-26
54
26
+28
H20/02
NCAA
Virginia
#230
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H22/02
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
49-43
49
43
+6
A25/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
46-31
46
31
+15
H01/03
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#286
W
46-29
46
29
+17
A05/03
NCAA
Duke
#7
L
42-43
42
43
-1
H08/03
NCAA
Notre Dame
#241
W
43-29
43
29
+14
H12/03
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
W
33-31
33
31
+2
A13/03
NCAA
78.3Avg total
43.4Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.935.673.5+2.367%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.534.674.2+4.971%-
Last 30 away (13)35.836.872.6-1.162%-
Last 10 (10)43.434.978.3+8.580%-
Last 5 (5)42.032.674.6+9.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)33.344.778.0-11.30%-
vs Similar (11)35.335.771.0-0.564%-
vs Weaker (13)42.231.373.5+10.9100%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Duke wins
5
North Carolina wins
DateGameScore
08/03/25North Carolina v Duke69-82
01/02/25Duke v North Carolina87-70
09/03/24Duke v North Carolina79-84
03/02/24North Carolina v Duke93-84
04/03/23North Carolina v Duke57-62
04/02/23Duke v North Carolina63-57
03/04/22Duke v North Carolina77-81
05/03/22Duke v North Carolina81-94
05/02/22North Carolina v Duke67-87
06/03/21North Carolina v Duke91-73
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/03/25HGeorgia Tech78-70
08/03/25ANorth Carolina82-69
04/03/25HWake Forest93-60
02/03/25HFlorida State100-65
26/02/25AMiami (FL)97-60
23/02/25AIllinois110-67
18/02/25AVirginia80-62
15/02/25HStanford106-70
13/02/25HCalifornia78-57
08/02/25AClemson71-77
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/03/25AWake Forest68-59
12/03/25HNotre Dame76-56
08/03/25HDuke69-82
05/03/25AVirginia Tech91-59
01/03/25HMiami (FL)92-73
25/02/25AFlorida State96-85
22/02/25HVirginia81-66
20/02/25HNC State97-73
15/02/25ASyracuse88-82
11/02/25AClemson65-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW91%
HomeWWWWW90%
AwayLWWWW92%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games322012
Win %91%90%92%
Points / game83.383.882.5
Allowed / game61.661.362.2
Point differential+21.7+22.4+20.3
Avg total144.9145.1144.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+78%75%83%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
North Carolina
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW65%
HomeWWWLW74%
AwayLWWWW53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games341915
Win %65%74%53%
Points / game81.184.576.8
Allowed / game75.074.375.9
Point differential+6.1+10.2+0.9
Avg total156.1158.7152.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%53%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (10)60% (5)60% (5)
Overtime %6%11%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke3229391%83.361.6+21.7
2 Clemson3227584%76.465.3+11.1
3 Louisville3226681%79.268.7+10.5
4 SMU Mustangs33231070%80.071.1+8.9
5 Wake Forest32211166%70.268.0+2.2
6 North Carolina34221265%81.175.0+6.1
7 Stanford33201361%73.070.6+2.4
8 Pittsburgh32171553%75.970.8+5.0
9 Florida State32171553%74.572.5+2.0
10 Georgia Tech33171652%73.472.4+0.9
11 Virginia32151747%64.866.8-2.0
12 Notre Dame33151845%72.672.5+0.2
13 California33141942%75.676.8-1.2
14 Syracuse33141942%74.777.8-3.1
15 Virginia Tech32131941%69.273.2-4.0
16 NC State31121939%69.570.3-0.8
17 Boston College31121939%70.475.8-5.4
18 Miami (FL)3172423%74.080.6-6.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke452974
North Carolina244771
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