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Louisville vs Duke Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 07 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 73-84
47-38 26-46
Position#53
Record11-3
FormWLWWL
Points / game90.4
Allowed / game69.1
Louisville
USA
vs
Duke 🏆
USA
Position#8
Record13-1
FormWWLWW
Points / game87.3
Allowed / game65.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Louisville v Duke
06 Jan 2026
LOUI73
DUKE84
08 Dec 2024
LOUI65
DUKE76
23 Jan 2024
LOUI69
DUKE83
29 Jan 2022
LOUI65
DUKE74
10 Mar 2021
LOUI56
DUKE70
23 Jan 2021
LOUI70
DUKE65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Louisville winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cincinnati
#161
W
74-64
74
64
+10
A21/11
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
87-46
87
46
+41
H25/11
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
104-47
104
47
+57
H27/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
80-89
80
89
-9
A04/12
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
87-78
87
78
+9
H06/12
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
99-73
99
73
+26
H13/12
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
62-83
62
83
-21
A17/12
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
94-54
94
54
+40
H20/12
NCAA
California
#79
W
90-70
90
70
+20
A31/12
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
76-80
76
80
-4
A03/01
NCAA
1H
2H
28-32
46-32
33-17
54-29
52-20
52-27
29-47
51-42
41-27
46-51
57-37
42-36
27-34
35-49
42-20
52-34
48-34
42-36
34-35
42-45
153.7Avg total
85.3Scored
68.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)90.469.1159.5+21.279%
Season at home (9)98.164.7162.8+33.4100%
Season away (5)76.477.2153.6-0.840%
Last 10 (10)85.368.4153.7+16.970%
Last 5 (5)84.272.0156.2+12.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)62.073.0135.0-11.00%
vs Similar (6)78.379.2157.5-0.850%
vs Weaker (23)86.666.5153.1+20.091%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kansas
#58
W
78-66
78
66
+12
H19/11
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
100-42
100
42
+58
H22/11
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
93-56
93
56
+37
H23/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
80-71
80
71
+9
A28/11
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
67-66
67
66
+1
H03/12
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
66-60
66
60
+6
A06/12
NCAA
Lipscomb
#121
W
97-73
97
73
+24
H16/12
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
81-82
81
82
-1
H21/12
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
85-79
85
79
+6
H31/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
91-87
91
87
+4
A03/01
NCAA
1H
2H
41-33
37-33
47-19
53-23
52-18
41-38
41-35
39-36
36-24
31-42
31-34
35-26
48-45
49-28
46-36
35-46
39-43
46-36
42-42
49-45
152.0Avg total
83.8Scored
68.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)87.365.5152.8+21.893%
Season at home (10)87.164.0151.1+23.190%
Season away (4)87.869.2157.0+18.5100%
Last 10 (10)83.868.2152.0+15.690%
Last 5 (5)84.076.2160.2+7.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)67.066.0133.0+1.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)88.365.8154.0+22.593%
This opponent (Louisville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +8.8+8.81st half: +9.4+9.42nd half2nd half: +8.1+8.12nd half: +6.2+6.2
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +8.8+8.81st half: +9.4+9.42nd half2nd half: +8.1+8.12nd half: +6.2+6.2
LouisvilleDuke
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cincinnati
#161
L
28-32
28
32
-4
A21/11
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
33-17
33
17
+16
H25/11
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
52-20
52
20
+32
H27/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
29-47
29
47
-18
A04/12
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
41-27
41
27
+14
H06/12
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
57-37
57
37
+20
H13/12
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A17/12
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
42-20
42
20
+22
H20/12
NCAA
California
#79
W
48-34
48
34
+14
A31/12
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
34-35
34
35
-1
A03/01
NCAA
69.4Avg total
39.1Scored
30.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.330.672.0+10.780%-
Last 30 at home (18)44.329.974.2+14.489%-
Last 30 away (12)36.931.868.7+5.267%-
Last 10 (10)39.130.369.4+8.860%-
Last 5 (5)41.632.073.6+9.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)38.033.071.0+5.0100%-
vs Similar (6)35.336.371.7-1.050%-
vs Weaker (23)43.029.072.1+14.087%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kansas
#58
W
41-33
41
33
+8
H19/11
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
47-19
47
19
+28
H22/11
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
52-18
52
18
+34
H23/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A28/11
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H03/12
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A06/12
NCAA
Lipscomb
#121
W
48-45
48
45
+3
H16/12
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H21/12
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H31/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
D
42-42
42
42
+0
A03/01
NCAA
75.2Avg total
42.3Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.131.975.0+11.280%-
Last 30 at home (22)42.930.773.6+12.282%-
Last 30 away (8)43.835.178.9+8.675%-
Last 10 (10)42.332.975.2+9.470%-
Last 5 (5)41.240.081.2+1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)36.024.060.0+12.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (29)43.432.275.6+11.279%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Louisville wins
7
Duke wins
DateGameScore
16/03/25Duke v Louisville73-62
08/12/24Louisville v Duke65-76
29/02/24Duke v Louisville84-59
24/01/24Louisville v Duke69-83
21/02/23Duke v Louisville79-62
29/01/22Louisville v Duke65-74
10/03/21Louisville v Duke56-70
27/02/21Duke v Louisville73-80 OT
23/01/21Louisville v Duke70-65
18/01/20Duke v Louisville73-79
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/26AStanford76-80
31/12/25ACalifornia90-70
20/12/25HMontana94-54
17/12/25ATennessee62-83
13/12/25HMemphis99-73
06/12/25HIndiana87-78
04/12/25AArkansas80-89
27/11/25HNJIT104-47
25/11/25HEastern Michigan87-46
21/11/25ACincinnati74-64
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/26AFlorida State91-87
31/12/25HGeorgia Tech85-79
21/12/25HTexas Tech81-82
16/12/25HLipscomb97-73
06/12/25AMichigan State66-60
03/12/25HFlorida67-66
28/11/25AArkansas80-71
23/11/25HHoward93-56
22/11/25HNiagara100-42
19/11/25HKansas78-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Louisville
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL79%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWLLWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1495
Win %79%100%40%
Points / game90.498.176.4
Allowed / game69.164.777.2
Point differential+21.2+33.4-0.8
Avg total159.5162.8153.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%78%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Duke
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW93%
HomeWWWLW90%
AwayWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games14104
Win %93%90%100%
Points / game87.387.187.8
Allowed / game65.564.069.2
Point differential+21.8+23.1+18.5
Avg total152.8151.1157.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+57%70%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke1413193%87.365.5+21.8
2 North Carolina1513287%81.365.9+15.4
3 California1513287%81.568.5+12.9
4 Miami (FL)1412286%88.567.8+20.7
5 SMU Mustangs1412286%91.576.9+14.6
6 Virginia1512380%84.170.7+13.4
7 Clemson1512380%78.265.7+12.5
8 Virginia Tech1512380%83.574.0+9.5
9 Stanford1512380%78.970.9+8.1
10 Louisville1411379%90.469.1+21.2
11 NC State1510567%85.371.4+13.9
12 Wake Forest1510567%81.974.3+7.7
13 Notre Dame1510567%74.366.7+7.6
14 Georgia Tech1510567%75.970.1+5.8
15 Syracuse149564%73.664.8+8.9
16 Boston College147750%69.466.6+2.8
17 Florida State157847%83.979.2+4.7
18 Pittsburgh157847%73.368.7+4.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Louisville472673
Duke384684
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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