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Middle Tenn. St. vs Missouri State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 17 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 90-87 (OT)
38-36 30-32 22-19
Position#179
Record10-7
FormWWLWL
Points / game74.8
Allowed / game68.8
vs
Position#223
Record10-7
FormWWLWL
Points / game75.2
Allowed / game71.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Middle Tenn. St. v Missouri State
23 Jan 2027
MIDD v MISS
upcoming
17 Jan 2026
MIDD90
MISS87
05 Dec 2023
MIDD77
MISS73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Middle Tenn. St. winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Missouri State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Middle Tenn. St.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UAB
#99
W
76-61
76
61
+15
H02/12
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
62-83
62
83
-21
H07/12
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
68-67
68
67
+1
H18/12
NCAA
Cumberland University (TN)
#409
W
74-58
74
58
+16
H21/12
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
60-69
60
69
-9
A30/12
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
W
88-51
88
51
+37
H03/01
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
W
68-67
68
67
+1
H04/01
NCAA
UTEP
#307
L
80-83 OT
80
83
-3
A09/01
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
59-55
59
55
+4
A11/01
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
58-59
58
59
-1
A15/01
NCAA
1H
2H
32-33
44-28
31-35
31-48
40-31
28-36
30-35
44-23
28-33
32-36
39-22
49-29
34-34
34-33
44-37
29-36
29-29
30-26
40-21
18-38
134.6Avg total
69.3Scored
65.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)74.868.8143.5+6.059%
Season at home (10)81.467.3148.7+14.180%
Season away (7)65.370.9136.1-5.629%
Last 10 (10)69.365.3134.6+4.060%
Last 5 (5)70.663.0133.6+7.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)67.677.8145.4-10.125%
vs Similar ◀ (13)72.869.5142.4+3.369%
vs Weaker (7)86.466.4152.9+20.086%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tulsa
#23
L
74-98
74
98
-24
A06/12
NCAA
Xavier
#248
L
57-75
57
75
-18
A13/12
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#338
W
63-62
63
62
+1
H17/12
NCAA
Lindenwood
#162
W
70-65
70
65
+5
H23/12
NCAA
Delaware
#326
W
61-43
61
43
+18
A29/12
NCAA
UTEP
#307
W
79-55
79
55
+24
H03/01
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
89-82
89
82
+7
H04/01
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
L
80-90
80
90
-10
A08/01
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
79-71
79
71
+8
H10/01
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
L
72-87
72
87
-15
A15/01
NCAA
1H
2H
32-48
42-50
28-31
29-44
30-24
33-38
34-22
36-43
27-17
34-26
49-23
30-32
53-41
36-41
37-42
43-48
35-30
44-41
34-41
38-46
145.2Avg total
72.4Scored
72.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)75.271.8147.1+3.459%
Season at home (11)80.569.2149.7+11.482%
Season away (6)65.576.7142.2-11.217%
Last 10 (10)72.472.8145.2-0.460%
Last 5 (5)79.877.0156.8+2.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)68.174.4142.5-6.214%
vs Similar ◀ (10)67.971.4139.3-3.540%
vs Weaker (3)67.753.3121.0+14.3100%
This opponent (Middle Tenn. St.) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +3.7+3.71st half: +4.0+4.02nd half2nd half: +0.6+0.62nd half: -4.4-4.4
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +3.7+3.71st half: +4.0+4.02nd half2nd half: +0.6+0.62nd half: -4.4-4.4
Middle Tenn. St.Missouri State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Middle Tenn. St.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UAB
#99
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H02/12
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
31-35
31
35
-4
H07/12
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H18/12
NCAA
Cumberland University (TN)
#409
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H21/12
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
28-33
28
33
-5
A30/12
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
W
39-22
39
22
+17
H03/01
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H04/01
NCAA
UTEP
#307
W
44-37
44
37
+7
A09/01
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
D
29-29
29
29
+0
A11/01
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
W
40-21
40
21
+19
A15/01
NCAA
65.7Avg total
34.7Scored
31.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.633.270.8+4.453%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.233.472.5+5.859%-
Last 30 away (13)35.533.068.5+2.546%-
Last 10 (10)34.731.065.7+3.740%-
Last 5 (5)37.228.665.8+8.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)34.436.070.4-1.625%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)36.032.868.8+3.246%-
vs Weaker (7)43.729.172.9+14.6100%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tulsa
#23
L
32-48
32
48
-16
A06/12
NCAA
Xavier
#248
L
28-31
28
31
-3
A13/12
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#338
W
30-24
30
24
+6
H17/12
NCAA
Lindenwood
#162
W
34-22
34
22
+12
H23/12
NCAA
Delaware
#326
W
27-17
27
17
+10
A29/12
NCAA
UTEP
#307
W
49-23
49
23
+26
H03/01
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
53-41
53
41
+12
H04/01
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A08/01
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H10/01
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A15/01
NCAA
67.8Avg total
35.9Scored
31.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.532.267.7+3.347%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.830.569.3+8.465%-
Last 30 away (13)31.234.565.6-3.323%-
Last 10 (10)35.931.967.8+4.060%-
Last 5 (5)41.635.477.0+6.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)32.435.367.6-2.914%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)35.131.166.2+4.070%-
vs Weaker (3)35.321.356.7+14.0100%-
This opponent (Middle Tenn. St.) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Middle Tenn. St. wins
1
Missouri State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/01/26ALouisiana Tech58-59
11/01/26ANew Mexico State59-55
09/01/26AUTEP80-83 OT
04/01/26HSam Houston St.68-67
03/01/26HLouisiana Tech88-51
30/12/25AHouston60-69
21/12/25HCumberland University (TN)74-58
18/12/25HKennesaw State68-67
07/12/25HBelmont62-83
02/12/25HUAB76-61
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/01/26AWestern Kentucky72-87
10/01/26HFlorida International79-71
08/01/26AKennesaw State80-90
04/01/26HNew Mexico State89-82
03/01/26HUTEP79-55
29/12/25ADelaware61-43
23/12/25HLindenwood70-65
17/12/25HOral Roberts63-62
13/12/25AXavier57-75
06/12/25ATulsa74-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Middle Tenn. St.
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL59%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayLLLWL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17107
Win %59%80%29%
Points / game74.881.465.3
Allowed / game68.867.370.9
Point differential+6.0+14.1-5.6
Avg total143.5148.7136.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)100% (3)50% (4)
Overtime %6%0%14%
Missouri State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL59%
HomeWWWWW82%
AwayLLWLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17116
Win %59%82%17%
Points / game75.280.565.5
Allowed / game71.869.276.7
Point differential+3.4+11.4-11.2
Avg total147.1149.7142.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%36%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)67% (3)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Liberty1815383%80.368.0+12.3
2 Kennesaw State1812667%88.576.3+12.2
3 New Mexico State1711665%77.368.3+9.0
4 Sam Houston St.1811761%84.174.1+10.0
5 Western Kentucky1811761%80.475.8+4.7
6 Middle Tenn. St.1710759%74.868.8+6.0
7 Missouri State1710759%75.271.8+3.4
8 Louisiana Tech1810856%67.760.5+7.2
9 Jacksonville State189950%73.066.3+6.7
10 Florida International189950%83.778.3+5.4
11 UTEP1861233%69.872.8-3.0
12 Delaware1851328%66.272.2-6.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Middle Tenn. St.38302290
Missouri State36321987
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