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Nacional vs Defensor Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 20 Apr 2024
Tip-off: 00:15
Scheduled
Position#3
Record20-10
FormWWWLW
Points / game86.7
Allowed / game80.2
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.3/10
Below normal
4.2/10
Below normal
Position#4
Record19-11
FormLLLWW
Points / game80.5
Allowed / game78.9
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Polideportivo Gran Parque Central
Other2023-24
Meetings · Nacional v Defensor
02 May 2026
NACI97
DEFE73
31 Oct 2025
NACI80
DEFE61
06 May 2025
NACI90
DEFE82
28 Apr 2025
NACI97
DEFE61
27 Mar 2025
NACI81
DEFE69
27 Jan 2025
NACI96
DEFE81
19 Apr 2024
NACI v DEFE
upcoming
22 Feb 2024
NACI65
DEFE72
12 Apr 2023
NACI81
DEFE71
31 Mar 2023
NACI79
DEFE73
11 Feb 2023
NACI72
DEFE85
19 Dec 2021
NACI70
DEFE65
24 May 2021
NACI95
DEFE81
21 Nov 2020
NACI77
DEFE66
14 Nov 2020
NACI67
DEFE68
03 Nov 2020
NACI97
DEFE91
13 Mar 2020
NACI86
DEFE77
07 Jan 2020
NACI86
DEFE73
08 Mar 2019
NACI87
DEFE82
01 Mar 2019
NACI78
DEFE93
09 Nov 2018
NACI87
DEFE92
16 Mar 2018
NACI93
DEFE87
03 Oct 2017
NACI89
DEFE67
24 Oct 2013
NACI77
DEFE83
12 Jan 2013
NACI81
DEFE64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nacional win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Defensor win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Halcones de Xalapa
#4
L
75-88
75
88
-13
67avg 80
A11/03
Champions League Americas
Cordon
#10
L
67-86
67
86
-19
50avg 80
A16/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
66-101
66
101
-35
45avg 80
H19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
79-83
79
83
-4
65avg 80
H22/03
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
89-103
89
103
-14
85avg 80
A24/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
95-58
95
58
+37
99avg 80
A27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
69-61
69
61
+8
60avg 80
H02/04
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
W
94-78
94
78
+16
95avg 80
H06/04
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
83-87
83
87
-4
79avg 80
H09/04
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
93-52
93
52
+41
99avg 80
A18/04
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-23
14-19
16-17
25-29
19-19
18-18
17-29
13-20
21-36
10-23
17-17
18-25
25-25
17-18
24-20
13-20
24-18
25-29
15-32
25-24
30-20
21-20
24-9
20-9
19-13
16-21
20-10
14-17
20-21
30-14
20-23
24-20
18-24
25-18
23-24
17-21
24-14
24-11
25-15
20-12
160.7Avg total
81.0Scored
79.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)86.780.2166.9+6.567%
Season at home (15)82.176.1158.1+6.067%
Season away (15)91.384.3175.6+7.167%
Last 10 (10)81.079.7160.7+1.340%
Last 5 (5)86.867.2154.0+19.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)82.085.8167.8-3.833%
vs Similar ◀ (13)85.885.5171.4+0.354%
vs Weaker (11)82.674.7157.4+7.964%
This opponent (Defensor) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DefensorUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormDefensor
Date
Competition
Larre Borges
#13
W
92-77
92
77
+15
91avg 70
H10/02
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
72-65
72
65
+7
67avg 70
A22/02
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
77-82
77
82
-5
64avg 70
A05/03
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
79-60
79
60
+19
72avg 70
H18/03
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
W
72-69
72
69
+3
60avg 70
A22/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
96-103 OT
96
103
-7
no box
A23/03
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
L
58-95
58
95
-37
52avg 70
H27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
L
67-83
67
83
-16
57avg 70
H02/04
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
92-76
92
76
+16
85avg 70
H09/04
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
89-79
89
79
+10
78avg 70
A12/04
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-25
22-13
26-20
21-19
19-17
20-16
18-11
15-21
21-23
16-20
26-14
14-25
26-16
17-13
21-17
15-14
9-10
26-15
19-20
18-24
16-18
29-26
17-24
26-20
20-30
20-21
9-24
9-20
17-25
12-14
20-27
18-17
26-20
21-29
31-15
14-12
15-25
30-17
19-17
25-20
158.3Avg total
79.4Scored
78.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)80.578.9159.4+1.763%
Season at home (15)81.379.3160.6+2.167%
Season away (15)79.778.5158.2+1.360%
Last 10 (10)79.478.9158.3+0.560%
Last 5 (5)80.487.2167.6-6.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)73.479.4152.9-6.029%
vs Similar ◀ (11)80.883.6164.5-2.845%
vs Weaker (12)84.474.2158.6+10.2100%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: +2.9+2.9Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +1.7+1.7Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: -1.7-1.7
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: +2.9+2.9Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +1.7+1.7Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: -1.7-1.7
NacionalDefensor
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Halcones de Xalapa
#4
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A11/03
Champions League Americas
Cordon
#10
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A16/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
31-59
31
59
-28
H19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
42-43
42
43
-1
H22/03
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
49-47
49
47
+2
A24/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
51-40
51
40
+11
A27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H02/04
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
W
50-35
50
35
+15
H06/04
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
43-42
43
42
+1
H09/04
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
48-25
48
25
+23
A18/04
Liga Uruguaya
82.4Avg total
42.0Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.340.783.0+1.653%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.441.082.4+0.450%-
Last 30 away (16)43.140.583.6+2.656%-
Last 10 (10)42.040.482.4+1.660%-
Last 5 (5)45.435.280.6+10.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)38.741.380.0-2.717%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)43.243.586.8-0.354%-
vs Weaker (11)43.237.180.3+6.173%-
This opponent (Defensor) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DefensorLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Larre Borges
#13
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H10/02
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A22/02
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A05/03
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
43-29
43
29
+14
H18/03
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
W
35-25
35
25
+10
A22/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
45-44
45
44
+1
A23/03
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
L
40-51
40
51
-11
H27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
L
29-39
29
39
-10
H02/04
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H09/04
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
45-42
45
42
+3
A12/04
Liga Uruguaya
79.8Avg total
40.5Scored
39.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.040.282.2+1.867%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.140.684.7+3.573%-
Last 30 away (15)39.939.879.7+0.160%-
Last 10 (10)40.539.379.8+1.260%-
Last 5 (5)41.245.086.2-3.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)36.039.175.1-3.143%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)42.742.585.3+0.264%-
vs Weaker (12)44.838.783.5+6.283%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 80.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.9 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.819.4
50.0%
51.0%38.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.510.5
35.6%
33.3%31.5
🏀 Free throws12.99.9
76.7%
71.7%9.9
They take 68.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Defensortheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Defensor: 76.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.917.9
44.9%
51.0%35.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.29.6
32.9%
33.3%28.8
🏀 Free throws18.212.0
65.9%
71.7%12.0
They take 69.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Apr 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nacional
WLWWWLLLLL
Defensor
WWLLLWWLWW
#3
League position
#4
+1.9
Net rating
+2.1
103.9
Offensive rating
99.5
101.9
Defensive rating
97.4
51.5%
Effective FG%
46.7%
50.6%
Opp. effective FG%
47.2%
14.9%
Turnover %
15.0%
21.8%
Off. rebound %
27.0%
0.19
Free-throw rate
0.26
35.6%
3-point %
32.9%
65.9%
Assist %
59.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence103.9 · 99.5Defence101.9 · 97.4Shooting51.5% · 46.7%3-point %35.6% · 32.9%Ball care14.9% · 15.0%Off. rebounds21.8% · 27.0%Free throws0.19 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Nacional   ■ Defensor
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Nacional wins
4
Defensor wins
DateGameScore
27/03/24Defensor v Nacional58-95
22/02/24Nacional v Defensor65-72
09/12/23Defensor v Nacional91-99
12/04/23Nacional v Defensor81-71
05/04/23Defensor v Nacional92-73
31/03/23Nacional v Defensor79-73
29/03/23Defensor v Nacional66-78
09/03/23Defensor v Nacional87-79
11/02/23Nacional v Defensor72-85
05/12/22Defensor v Nacional75-80
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/04/24AHebraica y Macabi93-52
09/04/24HAguada83-87
06/04/24HPenarol94-78
02/04/24HCordon69-61
27/03/24ADefensor95-58
24/03/24AAguada89-103
22/03/24HHebraica y Macabi79-83
19/03/24HHebraica y Macabi66-101
16/03/24ACordon67-86
11/03/24AHalcones de Xalapa75-88
Defensorlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/04/24ACordon89-79
09/04/24HHebraica y Macabi92-76
02/04/24HPenarol67-83
27/03/24HNacional58-95
23/03/24AHebraica y Macabi96-103 OT
22/03/24APenarol72-69
18/03/24HCordon79-60
05/03/24AAguada77-82
22/02/24ANacional72-65
10/02/24HLarre Borges92-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW67%
HomeLLWWL67%
AwayLLLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game86.782.191.3
Allowed / game80.276.184.3
Point differential+6.5+6.0+7.1
Avg total166.9158.1175.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%33%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)60% (5)100% (1)
Overtime %7%7%7%
Defensor
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW63%
HomeWWLLW67%
AwayWLWLW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %63%67%60%
Points / game80.581.379.7
Allowed / game78.979.378.5
Point differential+1.7+2.1+1.3
Avg total159.4160.6158.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%40%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (8)100% (3)60% (5)
Overtime %3%0%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol3124777%82.872.3+10.5
2 Aguada3124777%89.780.9+8.8
3 Nacional30201067%86.780.2+6.5
4 Defensor30191163%80.578.9+1.7
5 Malvin34201459%79.776.5+3.3
6 Hebraica y Macabi31171455%83.484.1-0.8
7 Bigua34161847%82.481.9+0.5
8 Trouville37162143%74.677.5-2.9
9 Urupan36152142%76.679.2-2.6
10 Cordon31121939%73.577.1-3.6
11 CA Racing31233%83.081.7+1.3
12 Goes32102231%73.377.9-4.6
13 Larre Borges323299%64.879.8-15.0
14 Remeros Mercedes2020%77.585.5-8.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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