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Nacional vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 06 Apr 2024
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 94-78
20-21 30-14 20-23 24-20
Position#3
Record18-9
FormLLLWW
Points / game86.3
Allowed / game81.0
vs
Position#2
Record21-6
FormLLWWW
Points / game82.1
Allowed / game70.6
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Polideportivo Gran Parque Central
Other2023-24
Meetings · Nacional v Penarol
22 Apr 2026
NACI82
PENA84
13 Oct 2025
NACI62
PENA87
10 Mar 2025
NACI90
PENA72
12 Nov 2024
NACI80
PENA78
05 Apr 2024
NACI94
PENA78
12 Dec 2023
NACI77
PENA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Urupan
#9
L
74-89
74
89
-15
71avg 79
A02/03
Liga Uruguaya
Halcones de Xalapa
#4
W
79-78
79
78
+1
80avg 79
H06/03
Champions League Americas
Halcones de Xalapa
#4
L
104-105 OT
104
105
-1
108avg 79
A10/03
Champions League Americas
Halcones de Xalapa
#4
L
75-88
75
88
-13
67avg 79
A11/03
Champions League Americas
Cordon
#10
L
67-86
67
86
-19
50avg 79
A16/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
66-101
66
101
-35
45avg 79
H19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
79-83
79
83
-4
65avg 79
H22/03
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
89-103
89
103
-14
85avg 79
A24/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
95-58
95
58
+37
99avg 79
A27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
69-61
69
61
+8
60avg 79
H02/04
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-16
28-27
14-26
16-20
26-23
17-22
12-14
24-19
17-21
21-25
27-22
22-19
20-23
14-19
16-17
25-29
19-19
18-18
17-29
13-20
21-36
10-23
17-17
18-25
25-25
17-18
24-20
13-20
24-18
25-29
15-32
25-24
30-20
21-20
24-9
20-9
19-13
16-21
20-10
14-17
164.9Avg total
79.7Scored
85.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)86.381.0167.4+5.367%
Season at home (13)81.175.1156.2+6.069%
Season away (14)91.286.6177.8+4.664%
Last 10 (10)79.785.2164.9-5.530%
Last 5 (5)79.681.2160.8-1.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)82.085.8167.8-3.833%
vs Similar ◀ (11)85.486.1171.5-0.755%
vs Weaker (13)85.280.6165.8+4.662%
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Trouville
#8
W
91-83
91
83
+8
84avg 73
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
L
65-75
65
75
-10
51avg 73
H31/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
57-52
57
52
+5
45avg 73
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
79-68
79
68
+11
70avg 73
H07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
L
62-77
62
77
-15
49avg 73
A16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
81-82
81
82
-1
69avg 73
H19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
L
69-72
69
72
-3
53avg 73
H22/03
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
84-68
84
68
+16
84avg 73
A24/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
99-74
99
74
+25
99avg 73
H27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
83-67
83
67
+16
81avg 73
A02/04
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-18
26-27
12-18
27-20
22-24
17-21
11-12
15-18
13-14
14-16
20-13
10-9
24-14
14-16
22-17
19-21
20-18
11-22
14-17
17-20
13-12
19-20
16-15
33-35
10-9
15-26
20-19
24-18
28-20
20-23
22-10
14-15
32-17
25-22
23-20
19-15
25-17
14-12
27-20
17-18
148.8Avg total
77.0Scored
71.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)82.170.6152.7+11.678%
Season at home (14)83.368.9152.2+14.479%
Season away (13)80.972.4153.3+8.577%
Last 10 (10)77.071.8148.8+5.260%
Last 5 (5)83.272.6155.8+10.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (5)84.278.2162.4+6.060%
vs Weaker (22)81.768.9150.5+12.882%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: +5.0+5.0Q2Q2: -3.5-3.5Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: -1.0-1.0Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: +0.6+0.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: +5.0+5.0Q2Q2: -3.5-3.5Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: -1.0-1.0Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: +0.6+0.6
NacionalPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Urupan
#9
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A02/03
Liga Uruguaya
Halcones de Xalapa
#4
L
43-45
43
45
-2
H06/03
Champions League Americas
Halcones de Xalapa
#4
L
38-46
38
46
-8
A10/03
Champions League Americas
Halcones de Xalapa
#4
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A11/03
Champions League Americas
Cordon
#10
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A16/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
31-59
31
59
-28
H19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
42-43
42
43
-1
H22/03
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
49-47
49
47
+2
A24/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
51-40
51
40
+11
A27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H02/04
Liga Uruguaya
84.0Avg total
40.4Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.841.984.8+0.953%-
Last 30 at home (13)41.241.382.5-0.146%-
Last 30 away (17)44.142.486.5+1.659%-
Last 10 (10)40.443.684.0-3.240%-
Last 5 (5)41.644.686.2-3.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)38.741.380.0-2.717%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)42.644.587.1-1.845%-
vs Weaker (13)44.940.185.0+4.877%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trouville
#8
W
52-45
52
45
+7
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
L
39-45
39
45
-6
H31/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
L
27-30
27
30
-3
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
L
25-35
25
35
-10
H22/03
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A24/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
57-39
57
39
+18
H27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
39-29
39
29
+10
A02/04
Liga Uruguaya
75.6Avg total
38.8Scored
36.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (27)42.735.978.6+6.959%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.433.577.9+10.971%-
Last 30 away (13)40.938.579.4+2.546%-
Last 10 (10)38.836.875.6+2.050%-
Last 5 (5)40.235.675.8+4.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (5)41.437.879.2+3.640%-
vs Weaker (22)43.035.578.5+7.664%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 78.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.220.2
50.2%
51.0%40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.18.8
32.5%
33.3%26.4
🏀 Free throws15.711.9
75.8%
71.7%11.9
They take 67.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 76.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.318.2
53.1%
51.0%36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.48.2
27.9%
33.3%24.6
🏀 Free throws22.215.5
69.8%
71.7%15.5
They take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Apr 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nacional
WWLLLLLLWL
Penarol
WWWLLLWWLW
#3
League position
#2
-7.3
Net rating
+5.9
101.0
Offensive rating
102.3
108.3
Defensive rating
96.4
49.6%
Effective FG%
47.9%
52.7%
Opp. effective FG%
44.6%
16.1%
Turnover %
15.6%
22.5%
Off. rebound %
26.3%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.35
32.5%
3-point %
27.9%
69.7%
Assist %
52.7%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence101.0 · 102.3Defence108.3 · 96.4Shooting49.6% · 47.9%3-point %32.5% · 27.9%Ball care16.1% · 15.6%Off. rebounds22.5% · 26.3%Free throws0.23 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)30% · 60%
■ Nacional   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Nacional wins
2
Penarol wins
DateGameScore
07/02/24Penarol v Nacional79-68
13/12/23Nacional v Penarol77-97
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/04/24HCordon69-61
27/03/24ADefensor95-58
24/03/24AAguada89-103
22/03/24HHebraica y Macabi79-83
19/03/24HHebraica y Macabi66-101
16/03/24ACordon67-86
11/03/24AHalcones de Xalapa75-88
10/03/24AHalcones de Xalapa104-105 OT
06/03/24HHalcones de Xalapa79-78
02/03/24AUrupan74-89
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/04/24ADefensor83-67
27/03/24HHebraica y Macabi99-74
24/03/24ACordon84-68
22/03/24HDefensor69-72
19/03/24HAguada81-82
16/02/24AGoes62-77
07/02/24HNacional79-68
03/02/24ALarre Borges57-52
31/01/24HCordon65-75
28/01/24ATrouville91-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW67%
HomeWLLLW69%
AwayLLLLW64%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271314
Win %67%69%64%
Points / game86.381.191.2
Allowed / game81.075.186.6
Point differential+5.3+6.0+4.6
Avg total167.4156.2177.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%31%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)75% (4)100% (1)
Overtime %7%8%7%
Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW78%
HomeLWLLW79%
AwayWWLWW77%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271413
Win %78%79%77%
Points / game82.183.380.9
Allowed / game70.668.972.4
Point differential+11.6+14.4+8.5
Avg total152.7152.2153.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+52%64%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)50% (4)33% (3)
Overtime %4%7%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Aguada2822679%90.081.0+9.0
2 Penarol2721678%82.170.6+11.6
3 Nacional2718967%86.381.0+5.3
4 Hebraica y Macabi28171161%84.883.0+1.8
5 Defensor28171161%79.879.0+0.9
6 Malvin32191359%79.775.5+4.2
7 Bigua32151747%82.682.3+0.3
8 Cordon28121643%73.175.5-2.5
9 Trouville32131941%74.077.0-3.0
10 Urupan32122038%75.079.2-4.2
11 Goes32102231%73.377.9-4.6
12 Larre Borges323299%64.879.8-15.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nacional2030202494
Penarol2114232078
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