PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Aguada vs Nacional Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 24 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 103-89
18-24 29-25 32-15 24-25
Position#1
Record20-5
FormWWWWW
Points / game88.9
Allowed / game80.2
Aguada 🏆
Uruguay
vs
Position#3
Record16-8
FormLLLLL
Points / game86.6
Allowed / game81.9
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Aguada
Other2023-24
Meetings · Aguada v Nacional
28 May 2026
AGUA92
NACI91
21 May 2026
AGUA89
NACI109
25 Apr 2026
AGUA94
NACI98
20 Dec 2025
AGUA98
NACI94
30 May 2025
AGUA96
NACI97
25 May 2025
AGUA80
NACI72
19 May 2025
AGUA84
NACI75
13 Mar 2025
AGUA99
NACI81
13 Dec 2024
AGUA88
NACI90
21 May 2024
AGUA92
NACI87
14 May 2024
AGUA115
NACI101
23 Mar 2024
AGUA103
NACI89
18 Jan 2024
AGUA105
NACI111
12 Dec 2022
AGUA91
NACI71
19 Apr 2022
AGUA80
NACI65
06 Apr 2022
AGUA93
NACI72
17 Nov 2021
AGUA78
NACI58
10 Apr 2021
AGUA84
NACI80
12 Feb 2021
AGUA72
NACI85
01 Dec 2020
AGUA20
NACI0
24 Jan 2020
AGUA87
NACI67
03 May 2019
AGUA78
NACI86
25 Apr 2019
AGUA69
NACI75
11 Mar 2019
AGUA123
NACI117
18 Jan 2019
AGUA96
NACI90
04 May 2018
AGUA84
NACI77
26 Apr 2018
AGUA81
NACI91
19 Apr 2018
AGUA76
NACI81
26 Mar 2018
AGUA70
NACI68
10 Nov 2017
AGUA86
NACI78
16 Oct 2013
AGUA81
NACI61
28 Sep 2012
AGUA94
NACI86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aguada winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nacional winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Penarol
#2
L
87-88
87
88
-1
82avg 84
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
L
105-111 OT
105
111
-6
no box
H19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
75-74
75
74
+1
64avg 84
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
87-77
87
77
+10
78avg 84
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
96-86
96
86
+10
95avg 84
H02/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
111-74
111
74
+37
115avg 84
A09/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
W
107-85
107
85
+22
104avg 84
H15/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
82-77
82
77
+5
78avg 84
H05/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
92-74
92
74
+18
89avg 84
H16/03
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
W
82-81
82
81
+1
72avg 84
A19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-31
22-23
25-19
20-15
26-18
30-25
21-36
21-19
17-18
22-23
21-15
15-18
25-25
29-19
11-15
22-18
27-16
20-23
35-20
14-27
33-16
30-20
25-18
23-20
29-19
32-23
28-25
18-18
23-21
20-16
14-26
25-14
23-16
26-19
29-16
14-23
12-13
20-19
15-16
35-33
175.1Avg total
92.4Scored
82.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)88.980.2169.2+8.780%
Season at home (13)91.380.8172.1+10.592%
Season away (12)86.379.7166.0+6.767%
Last 10 (10)92.482.7175.1+9.780%
Last 5 (5)94.878.2173.0+16.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (9)80.885.2166.0-4.433%
vs Weaker (21)89.578.0167.5+11.590%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Sao Paulo
#6
L
76-93
76
93
-17
68avg 79
A11/02
Champions League Americas
Quimsa
#3
W
78-72
78
72
+6
76avg 79
H12/02
Champions League Americas
Defensor
#4
L
65-72
65
72
-7
57avg 79
H22/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
L
74-89
74
89
-15
71avg 79
A02/03
Liga Uruguaya
Halcones de Xalapa
#4
W
79-78
79
78
+1
80avg 79
H06/03
Champions League Americas
Halcones de Xalapa
#4
L
104-105 OT
104
105
-1
108avg 79
A10/03
Champions League Americas
Halcones de Xalapa
#4
L
75-88
75
88
-13
67avg 79
A11/03
Champions League Americas
Cordon
#10
L
67-86
67
86
-19
50avg 79
A16/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
66-101
66
101
-35
45avg 79
H19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
79-83
79
83
-4
65avg 79
H22/03
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9-15
22-32
21-24
24-22
20-23
18-20
18-13
22-16
17-19
16-20
11-18
21-15
16-16
28-27
14-26
16-20
26-23
17-22
12-14
24-19
17-21
21-25
27-22
22-19
20-23
14-19
16-17
25-29
19-19
18-18
17-29
13-20
21-36
10-23
17-17
18-25
25-25
17-18
24-20
13-20
163.0Avg total
76.3Scored
86.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)86.681.9168.5+4.767%
Season at home (12)82.176.2158.3+5.867%
Season away (12)91.187.6178.7+3.567%
Last 10 (10)76.386.7163.0-10.420%
Last 5 (5)78.292.6170.8-14.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)82.085.8167.8-3.833%
vs Similar ◀ (11)83.384.8168.1-1.564%
vs Weaker (13)87.583.0170.5+4.562%
This opponent (Aguada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +4.2+4.2Q1: -3.0-3.0Q2Q2: +4.1+4.1Q2: -4.3-4.3Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: -2.3-2.3Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: -0.7-0.7
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +4.2+4.2Q1: -3.0-3.0Q2Q2: +4.1+4.1Q2: -4.3-4.3Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: -2.3-2.3Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: -0.7-0.7
AguadaNacional
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Penarol
#2
L
42-54
42
54
-12
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
56-43
56
43
+13
H19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
54-44
54
44
+10
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H02/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
63-36
63
36
+27
A09/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
W
61-42
61
42
+19
H15/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H05/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
49-35
49
35
+14
H16/03
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A19/03
Liga Uruguaya
88.9Avg total
48.6Scored
40.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.040.386.4+5.773%-
Last 30 at home (15)47.939.487.3+8.587%-
Last 30 away (15)44.241.385.5+2.960%-
Last 10 (10)48.640.388.9+8.370%-
Last 5 (5)49.636.486.0+13.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (9)42.439.882.2+2.767%-
vs Weaker (21)47.640.688.1+7.076%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sao Paulo
#6
L
31-47
31
47
-16
A11/02
Champions League Americas
Quimsa
#3
L
38-43
38
43
-5
H12/02
Champions League Americas
Defensor
#4
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H22/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A02/03
Liga Uruguaya
Halcones de Xalapa
#4
L
43-45
43
45
-2
H06/03
Champions League Americas
Halcones de Xalapa
#4
L
38-46
38
46
-8
A10/03
Champions League Americas
Halcones de Xalapa
#4
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A11/03
Champions League Americas
Cordon
#10
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A16/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
31-59
31
59
-28
H19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
42-43
42
43
-1
H22/03
Liga Uruguaya
81.5Avg total
37.1Scored
44.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.742.585.2+0.243%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.142.484.5-0.436%-
Last 30 away (16)43.242.685.8+0.650%-
Last 10 (10)37.144.481.5-7.310%-
Last 5 (5)36.445.481.8-9.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)38.741.380.0-2.717%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)41.544.886.4-3.327%-
vs Weaker (13)45.541.186.5+4.469%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 91.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀40%
🏀🏀🏀44%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.818.3
57.5%
51.0%36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.013.5
38.6%
33.3%40.5
🏀 Free throws17.914.4
80.4%
71.7%14.4
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 52% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 75.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.818.6
47.9%
51.0%37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.78.5
31.8%
33.3%25.5
🏀 Free throws17.512.6
72.0%
71.7%12.6
They take 65.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 24 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aguada
WWWWWWWWLL
Nacional
LLLLLWLLWL
#1
League position
#3
+16.0
Net rating
-13.3
118.3
Offensive rating
96.4
102.2
Defensive rating
109.7
57.7%
Effective FG%
47.9%
48.3%
Opp. effective FG%
54.1%
15.2%
Turnover %
17.0%
25.1%
Off. rebound %
20.9%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.27
38.6%
3-point %
31.8%
58.2%
Assist %
68.6%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence118.3 · 96.4Defence102.2 · 109.7Shooting57.7% · 47.9%3-point %38.6% · 31.8%Ball care15.2% · 17.0%Off. rebounds25.1% · 20.9%Free throws0.27 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)80% · 20%
■ Aguada   ■ Nacional
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Aguada wins
5
Nacional wins
DateGameScore
19/01/24Aguada v Nacional105-111 OT
18/11/23Nacional v Aguada77-68
31/01/23Nacional v Aguada87-67
12/12/22Aguada v Nacional91-71
20/04/22Aguada v Nacional80-65
15/04/22Nacional v Aguada85-80
10/04/22Nacional v Aguada84-61
07/04/22Aguada v Nacional93-72
12/02/22Nacional v Aguada86-99
18/11/21Aguada v Nacional78-58
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/03/24APenarol82-81
16/03/24HHebraica y Macabi92-74
05/03/24HDefensor82-77
15/02/24HBigua107-85
09/02/24AUrupan111-74
02/02/24HHebraica y Macabi96-86
30/01/24AMalvin87-77
28/01/24AGoes75-74
19/01/24HNacional105-111 OT
16/01/24APenarol87-88
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/03/24HHebraica y Macabi79-83
19/03/24HHebraica y Macabi66-101
16/03/24ACordon67-86
11/03/24AHalcones de Xalapa75-88
10/03/24AHalcones de Xalapa104-105 OT
06/03/24HHalcones de Xalapa79-78
02/03/24AUrupan74-89
22/02/24HDefensor65-72
12/02/24HQuimsa78-72
11/02/24ASao Paulo76-93

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW80%
HomeLWWWW92%
AwayLWWWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251312
Win %80%92%67%
Points / game88.991.386.3
Allowed / game80.280.879.7
Point differential+8.7+10.5+6.7
Avg total169.2172.1166.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+48%54%42%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (8)100% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %4%8%0%
Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL67%
HomeWWLLL67%
AwayWWLLL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game86.682.191.1
Allowed / game81.976.287.6
Point differential+4.7+5.8+3.5
Avg total168.5158.3178.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%33%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)75% (4)100% (1)
Overtime %8%8%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Aguada2520580%88.980.2+8.7
2 Penarol2519676%81.470.6+10.8
3 Nacional2416867%86.681.9+4.7
4 Defensor2617965%81.278.2+3.0
5 Hebraica y Macabi2516964%84.981.0+4.0
6 Malvin27141352%82.380.1+2.2
7 Bigua27131448%85.084.7+0.4
8 Cordon25111444%72.474.9-2.6
9 Trouville27101737%80.584.7-4.2
10 Goes2791833%80.384.6-4.3
11 Urupan2781930%78.484.8-6.4
12 Larre Borges2732411%76.890.8-14.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Aguada18293224103
Nacional2425152589
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.