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Nagasaki vs Utsunomiya Brex Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 30 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 08:05
Final 77-65
11-21 22-14 19-13 25-17
Position#16
Record21-25
FormWLWLL
Points / game76.2
Allowed / game77.8
vs
Position#1
Record38-8
FormWWLWW
Points / game85.9
Allowed / game76.0
JapanB League· Nagasaki Prefectural Sports Center
Other2024-25
Meetings · Nagasaki v Utsunomiya Brex
30 Mar 2025
NAGA77
UTSU65
29 Mar 2025
NAGA70
UTSU83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nagasaki winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Utsunomiya Brex winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNagasaki
Date
Competition
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#12
L
65-96
65
96
-31
55avg 70
A09/02
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
74-93
74
93
-19
57avg 70
H01/03
B League
Ryukyu
#3
W
89-85
89
85
+4
82avg 70
H02/03
B League
Saga
#18
W
92-86
92
86
+6
93avg 70
A05/03
B League
Osaka
#13
W
83-70
83
70
+13
79avg 70
A12/03
B League
Koshigaya Alphas
#20
W
88-70
88
70
+18
83avg 70
H19/03
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
68-88
68
88
-20
55avg 70
A22/03
B League
Kyoto
#10
W
84-63
84
63
+21
84avg 70
A23/03
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
L
77-78
77
78
-1
69avg 70
H26/03
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
L
70-83
70
83
-13
62avg 70
H29/03
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-20
20-27
13-27
14-22
21-29
14-20
16-24
23-20
23-24
16-28
18-14
32-19
35-25
22-21
15-19
20-21
15-22
22-12
27-17
19-19
22-17
31-25
22-10
13-18
23-25
16-15
17-28
12-20
21-10
21-13
24-15
18-25
26-23
18-20
19-23
14-12
17-27
16-23
11-20
26-13
160.2Avg total
79.0Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (46)76.277.8154.0-1.746%
Season at home (25)74.277.3151.5-3.236%
Season away (21)78.678.5157.0+0.157%
Last 10 (10)79.081.2160.2-2.250%
Last 5 (5)77.476.4153.8+1.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)76.080.9156.9-4.940%
vs Similar (11)78.182.0160.1-3.936%
vs Weaker (9)84.378.4162.8+5.967%
This opponent (Utsunomiya Brex) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Utsunomiya BrexJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBrex
Date
Competition
Brave Thunders
#21
W
94-74
94
74
+20
98avg 80
H09/02
B League
Hokkaido
#19
W
81-64
81
64
+17
70avg 80
H01/03
B League
Hokkaido
#19
W
98-91
98
91
+7
98avg 80
H02/03
B League
Alvark
#4
L
61-63
61
63
-2
52avg 80
A05/03
B League
Gunma
#6
W
83-77
83
77
+6
88avg 80
A12/03
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
76-60
76
60
+16
70avg 80
H19/03
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
W
88-86
88
86
+2
77avg 80
H22/03
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
L
89-105
89
105
-16
82avg 80
H23/03
B League
Sendai
#23
W
86-66
86
66
+20
89avg 80
H26/03
B League
Nagasaki
#16
W
83-70
83
70
+13
80avg 80
A29/03
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-17
25-18
25-23
18-16
19-18
25-13
21-15
16-18
19-24
28-15
23-25
28-27
13-15
13-11
20-14
15-23
23-19
29-23
11-13
20-22
23-13
19-22
18-17
16-8
28-26
25-22
15-16
20-22
22-28
23-28
25-28
19-21
21-18
29-18
19-20
17-10
27-17
23-16
20-11
13-26
159.5Avg total
83.9Scored
75.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (46)85.976.0161.9+10.083%
Season at home (22)87.076.3163.4+10.786%
Season away (24)84.975.6160.5+9.279%
Last 10 (10)83.975.6159.5+8.380%
Last 5 (5)84.477.4161.8+7.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (6)90.787.3178.0+3.367%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)87.273.7160.8+13.588%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: +5.3+5.3Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: -1.1-1.1
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: +5.3+5.3Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: -1.1-1.1
NagasakiUtsunomiya Brex
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#12
L
38-47
38
47
-9
A09/02
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
35-49
35
49
-14
H01/03
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
39-52
39
52
-13
H02/03
B League
Saga
#18
W
57-46
57
46
+11
A05/03
B League
Osaka
#13
W
37-34
37
34
+3
A12/03
B League
Koshigaya Alphas
#20
W
53-42
53
42
+11
H19/03
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
39-40
39
40
-1
A22/03
B League
Kyoto
#10
W
42-23
42
23
+19
A23/03
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
W
44-43
44
43
+1
H26/03
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
L
33-50
33
50
-17
H29/03
B League
84.3Avg total
41.7Scored
42.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.940.681.5+0.457%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.541.480.9-1.962%-
Last 30 away (14)42.639.682.1+3.050%-
Last 10 (10)41.742.684.3-0.950%-
Last 5 (5)42.239.681.8+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)37.340.778.0-3.440%-
vs Similar (11)43.540.584.0+3.164%-
vs Weaker (9)41.840.682.3+1.267%-
This opponent (Utsunomiya Brex) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Utsunomiya BrexLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brave Thunders
#21
W
51-35
51
35
+16
H09/02
B League
Hokkaido
#19
W
44-31
44
31
+13
H01/03
B League
Hokkaido
#19
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H02/03
B League
Alvark
#4
D
26-26
26
26
+0
A05/03
B League
Gunma
#6
W
52-42
52
42
+10
A12/03
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H19/03
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
W
53-48
53
48
+5
H22/03
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
L
45-56
45
56
-11
H23/03
B League
Sendai
#23
W
50-36
50
36
+14
H26/03
B League
Nagasaki
#16
W
50-33
50
33
+17
A29/03
B League
84.1Avg total
46.0Scored
38.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.338.683.9+6.873%-
Last 30 at home (15)47.040.387.3+6.773%-
Last 30 away (15)43.736.880.5+6.973%-
Last 10 (10)46.038.184.1+7.980%-
Last 5 (5)48.041.689.6+6.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (6)47.345.092.3+2.367%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)44.837.081.8+7.975%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 78.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀43%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.6 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.316.3
48.9%
51.2%32.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.211.1
38.0%
33.4%33.3
🏀 Free throws15.712.1
77.1%
72.7%12.1
They take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Utsunomiya Brextheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Utsunomiya Brex: 83.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.2 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.0 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.519.7
60.6%
51.2%39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.711.4
33.8%
33.4%34.2
🏀 Free throws13.910.0
71.9%
72.7%10.0
They take 66.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 51% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nagasaki
LLWLWWWWLL
Utsunomiya Brex
WWLWWWLWWW
#16
League position
#1
-2.9
Net rating
+13.1
103.5
Offensive rating
115.0
106.5
Defensive rating
101.9
52.7%
Effective FG%
55.6%
52.4%
Opp. effective FG%
47.8%
20.3%
Turnover %
15.6%
27.4%
Off. rebound %
30.9%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.21
38.0%
3-point %
33.8%
67.2%
Assist %
68.2%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence103.5 · 115.0Defence106.5 · 101.9Shooting52.7% · 55.6%3-point %38.0% · 33.8%Ball care20.3% · 15.6%Off. rebounds27.4% · 30.9%Free throws0.25 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Nagasaki   ■ Utsunomiya Brex
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Nagasaki wins
3
Utsunomiya Brex wins
DateGameScore
29/03/25Nagasaki v Utsunomiya Brex70-83
11/02/24Utsunomiya Brex v Nagasaki97-76
10/02/24Utsunomiya Brex v Nagasaki101-81
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/03/25HUtsunomiya Brex70-83
26/03/25HHiroshima D.77-78
23/03/25AKyoto84-63
22/03/25AKyoto68-88
19/03/25HKoshigaya Alphas88-70
12/03/25AOsaka83-70
05/03/25ASaga92-86
02/03/25HRyukyu89-85
01/03/25HRyukyu74-93
09/02/25ANagoya Fighting Eagles65-96
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/03/25ANagasaki83-70
26/03/25HSendai86-66
23/03/25HNeoPhoenix89-105
22/03/25HNeoPhoenix88-86
19/03/25HIbaraki Robots76-60
12/03/25AGunma83-77
05/03/25AAlvark61-63
02/03/25HHokkaido98-91
01/03/25HHokkaido81-64
09/02/25HBrave Thunders94-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nagasaki
B League 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL46%
HomeLWWLL36%
AwayLWWLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games462521
Win %46%36%57%
Points / game76.274.278.6
Allowed / game77.877.378.5
Point differential-1.7-3.2+0.1
Avg total154.0151.5157.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%16%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won36% (14)31% (13)100% (1)
Overtime %4%4%5%
Utsunomiya Brex
B League 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW83%
HomeWWWLW86%
AwayWWLWW79%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games462224
Win %83%86%79%
Points / game85.987.084.9
Allowed / game76.076.375.6
Point differential+10.0+10.7+9.2
Avg total161.9163.4160.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+48%55%42%
Close games (≤5 pts) won73% (11)71% (7)75% (4)
Overtime %9%0%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 NeoPhoenix4639785%92.980.1+12.8
2 Utsunomiya Brex4638883%85.976.0+10.0
3 Alvark47341372%76.771.1+5.6
4 Ryukyu46331372%84.877.5+7.3
5 SeaHorses Mikawa47321568%82.074.9+7.1
6 Chiba47321568%82.477.4+5.0
7 Gunma46311567%78.472.6+5.8
8 Shimane47301764%80.174.3+5.8
9 Sun Rockers Shibuya47252253%74.471.9+2.5
10 Kyoto47252253%81.579.9+1.6
11 Diamond Dolphins47252253%81.681.2+0.4
12 Osaka47232449%82.482.7-0.3
13 Akita47222547%74.074.9-0.9
14 Hiroshima D.47222547%79.482.6-3.1
15 Nagasaki46212546%76.277.8-1.7
16 Nagoya Fighting Eagles47212645%77.780.0-2.3
17 Yokohama47212645%76.579.5-2.9
18 Hokkaido47182938%75.579.3-3.7
19 Saga47153232%75.378.8-3.6
20 Koshigaya Alphas47153232%76.681.1-4.5
21 Brave Thunders47143330%78.787.2-8.5
22 Ibaraki Robots4793819%72.981.1-8.2
23 Sendai4793819%73.583.7-10.2
24 Shiga4673915%77.190.5-13.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nagasaki1122192577
Utsunomiya Brex2114131765
← all games of the day
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