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Nagasaki vs Koshigaya Alphas Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 19 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 10:05
Final 88-70
22-17 31-25 22-10 13-18
Position#16
Record19-22
FormLLWWW
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game78.0
vs
Position#20
Record14-27
FormLWWLW
Points / game77.6
Allowed / game81.0
JapanB League· Nagasaki Prefectural Sports Center
Other2024-25
Meetings · Nagasaki v Koshigaya Alphas
07 Dec 2025
NAGA99
KOSH76
06 Dec 2025
NAGA91
KOSH58
19 Mar 2025
NAGA88
KOSH70
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nagasaki winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Koshigaya Alphas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNagasaki
Date
Competition
Brave Thunders
#21
L
78-83
78
83
-5
71avg 69
H26/01
B League
Shiga
#24
W
101-89
101
89
+12
101avg 69
A29/01
B League
Shimane
#8
L
69-78
69
78
-9
62avg 69
H01/02
B League
Shimane
#8
W
96-74
96
74
+22
92avg 69
H02/02
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#12
W
89-85
89
85
+4
88avg 69
A08/02
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#12
L
65-96
65
96
-31
55avg 69
A09/02
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
74-93
74
93
-19
57avg 69
H01/03
B League
Ryukyu
#3
W
89-85
89
85
+4
82avg 69
H02/03
B League
Saga
#18
W
92-86
92
86
+6
93avg 69
A05/03
B League
Osaka
#13
W
83-70
83
70
+13
79avg 69
A12/03
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-27
19-15
13-16
22-25
34-22
15-27
26-20
26-20
23-15
12-13
15-22
19-28
28-21
22-19
24-20
22-14
24-21
25-21
21-26
19-17
18-20
20-27
13-27
14-22
21-29
14-20
16-24
23-20
23-24
16-28
18-14
32-19
35-25
22-21
15-19
20-21
15-22
22-12
27-17
19-19
167.5Avg total
83.6Scored
83.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (41)76.078.0154.0-2.046%
Season at home (22)73.677.4151.0-3.836%
Season away (19)78.878.8157.6+0.158%
Last 10 (10)83.683.9167.5-0.360%
Last 5 (5)80.686.0166.6-5.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)76.982.1159.0-5.343%
vs Similar ◀ (14)73.479.9153.2-6.529%
vs Weaker (9)84.378.4162.8+5.967%
This opponent (Koshigaya Alphas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Koshigaya AlphasJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlphas
Date
Competition
Saga
#18
W
90-75
90
75
+15
95avg 75
A26/01
B League
Gunma
#6
L
67-87
67
87
-20
64avg 75
H29/01
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
L
90-100
90
100
-10
84avg 75
H01/02
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
L
65-76
65
76
-11
57avg 75
H02/02
B League
Osaka
#13
L
77-80
77
80
-3
76avg 75
A08/02
B League
Osaka
#13
L
70-77
70
77
-7
61avg 75
A09/02
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
87-80
87
80
+7
85avg 75
A01/03
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
64-59
64
59
+5
55avg 75
A02/03
B League
Hokkaido
#19
L
79-84
79
84
-5
72avg 75
A05/03
B League
Akita
#14
W
93-80 OT
93
80
+13
91avg 75
H12/03
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-17
21-24
19-18
26-16
18-21
24-17
9-26
16-23
25-26
23-18
27-30
15-26
21-20
21-22
11-23
12-11
24-15
19-21
20-24
14-20
25-14
14-33
12-15
19-15
11-19
22-24
27-23
27-14
14-15
13-14
15-8
22-22
18-18
29-23
14-20
18-23
22-26
21-20
15-10
20-22
158.0Avg total
78.2Scored
79.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (41)77.681.0158.7-3.434%
Season at home (21)80.083.0163.0-3.033%
Season away (20)75.279.0154.1-3.835%
Last 10 (10)78.279.8158.0-1.640%
Last 5 (5)78.676.0154.6+2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)79.383.8163.1-4.419%
vs Similar ◀ (12)81.877.1158.8+4.767%
vs Weaker (2)88.570.0158.5+18.5100%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: -2.8-2.8Q4Q4: +1.1+1.1Q4: -0.3-0.3
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: -2.8-2.8Q4Q4: +1.1+1.1Q4: -0.3-0.3
NagasakiKoshigaya Alphas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brave Thunders
#21
W
43-42
43
42
+1
H26/01
B League
Shiga
#24
D
49-49
49
49
+0
A29/01
B League
Shimane
#8
W
35-28
35
28
+7
H01/02
B League
Shimane
#8
W
50-40
50
40
+10
H02/02
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#12
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A08/02
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#12
L
38-47
38
47
-9
A09/02
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
35-49
35
49
-14
H01/03
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
39-52
39
52
-13
H02/03
B League
Saga
#18
W
57-46
57
46
+11
A05/03
B League
Osaka
#13
W
37-34
37
34
+3
A12/03
B League
86.1Avg total
43.2Scored
42.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.740.279.8-0.553%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.939.677.5-1.760%-
Last 30 away (15)41.440.782.1+0.747%-
Last 10 (10)43.242.986.1+0.360%-
Last 5 (5)41.245.686.8-4.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)37.042.079.0-5.043%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)39.639.078.6+0.650%-
vs Weaker (9)41.840.682.3+1.267%-
This opponent (Koshigaya Alphas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Koshigaya AlphasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Saga
#18
W
45-41
45
41
+4
A26/01
B League
Gunma
#6
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H29/01
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H01/02
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H02/02
B League
Osaka
#13
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A08/02
B League
Osaka
#13
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A09/02
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A01/03
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
L
27-29
27
29
-2
A02/03
B League
Hokkaido
#19
W
47-41
47
41
+6
A05/03
B League
Akita
#14
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H12/03
B League
81.6Avg total
40.9Scored
40.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.541.383.8+1.247%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.141.186.2+3.953%-
Last 30 away (15)39.941.481.3-1.540%-
Last 10 (10)40.940.781.6+0.250%-
Last 5 (5)37.841.279.0-3.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)40.142.482.4-2.338%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)44.639.684.2+5.058%-
vs Weaker (2)49.542.592.0+7.050%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 82.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.718.8
54.2%
51.2%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.911.0
38.1%
33.4%33.0
🏀 Free throws17.212.0
69.8%
72.7%12.0
They take 63.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Koshigaya Alphastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Koshigaya Alphas: 77.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.7 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.317.6
48.5%
51.2%35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.29.9
42.7%
33.4%29.7
🏀 Free throws17.512.5
71.4%
72.7%12.5
They take 59.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nagasaki
WWWLLWWLWL
Koshigaya Alphas
WLWWLLLLLW
#16
League position
#20
-0.4
Net rating
-2.2
107.9
Offensive rating
105.3
108.3
Defensive rating
107.5
55.5%
Effective FG%
54.5%
53.3%
Opp. effective FG%
50.2%
19.7%
Turnover %
21.3%
29.2%
Off. rebound %
28.7%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.29
38.1%
3-point %
42.7%
66.1%
Assist %
66.2%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence107.9 · 105.3Defence108.3 · 107.5Shooting55.5% · 54.5%3-point %38.1% · 42.7%Ball care19.7% · 21.3%Off. rebounds29.2% · 28.7%Free throws0.27 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Nagasaki   ■ Koshigaya Alphas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Nagasaki wins
1
Koshigaya Alphas wins
DateGameScore
06/11/24Koshigaya Alphas v Nagasaki80-67
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/25AOsaka83-70
05/03/25ASaga92-86
02/03/25HRyukyu89-85
01/03/25HRyukyu74-93
09/02/25ANagoya Fighting Eagles65-96
08/02/25ANagoya Fighting Eagles89-85
02/02/25HShimane96-74
01/02/25HShimane69-78
29/01/25AShiga101-89
26/01/25HBrave Thunders78-83
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/25HAkita93-80 OT
05/03/25AHokkaido79-84
02/03/25AIbaraki Robots64-59
01/03/25AIbaraki Robots87-80
09/02/25AOsaka70-77
08/02/25AOsaka77-80
02/02/25HHiroshima D.65-76
01/02/25HHiroshima D.90-100
29/01/25HGunma67-87
26/01/25ASaga90-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nagasaki
B League 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW46%
HomeLLWLW36%
AwayWWLWW58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games412219
Win %46%36%58%
Points / game76.073.678.8
Allowed / game78.077.478.8
Point differential-2.0-3.8+0.1
Avg total154.0151.0157.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%14%32%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (13)33% (12)100% (1)
Overtime %5%5%5%
Koshigaya Alphas
B League 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW34%
HomeWLLLW33%
AwayLLWWL35%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games412120
Win %34%33%35%
Points / game77.680.075.2
Allowed / game81.083.079.0
Point differential-3.4-3.0-3.8
Avg total158.7163.0154.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%24%15%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (10)20% (5)20% (5)
Overtime %7%10%5%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 NeoPhoenix4036490%93.078.9+14.1
2 Utsunomiya Brex4134783%86.175.8+10.3
3 Gunma41291271%78.671.9+6.7
4 Alvark41291271%76.470.7+5.7
5 SeaHorses Mikawa41281368%82.775.3+7.4
6 Ryukyu41281368%83.876.9+6.9
7 Shimane41271466%80.574.6+5.8
8 Chiba41271466%81.477.5+3.9
9 Sun Rockers Shibuya41231856%75.071.0+4.0
10 Diamond Dolphins41221954%82.181.5+0.6
11 Kyoto41212051%80.779.5+1.2
12 Osaka41212051%82.081.9+0.1
13 Akita41192246%73.874.5-0.8
14 Nagasaki41192246%76.078.0-2.0
15 Nagoya Fighting Eagles41192246%78.080.5-2.4
16 Hiroshima D.41192246%78.882.3-3.5
17 Yokohama41172441%75.679.6-4.0
18 Hokkaido41152637%74.879.2-4.5
19 Koshigaya Alphas41142734%77.681.0-3.4
20 Brave Thunders41132832%77.185.4-8.3
21 Saga41113027%73.979.0-5.1
22 Ibaraki Robots4183320%73.181.6-8.4
23 Sendai4183320%72.882.9-10.1
24 Shiga4043610%76.290.4-14.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nagasaki2231221388
Koshigaya Alphas1725101870
← all games of the day
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