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Saga vs Nagasaki Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 05 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 10:05
Final 86-92
25-35 21-22 19-15 21-20
Position#18
Record11-28
FormLLLLL
Points / game73.6
Allowed / game78.5
vs
Position#16
Record17-22
FormWWLLW
Points / game75.4
Allowed / game78.0
JapanB League· Saga Arena
Other2024-25
Meetings · Saga v Nagasaki
21 Oct 2026
SAGA66
NAGA84
05 Mar 2025
SAGA86
NAGA92
02 Dec 2024
SAGA78
NAGA93
01 Dec 2024
SAGA80
NAGA51
14 Apr 2024
SAGA73
NAGA80
13 Apr 2024
SAGA61
NAGA63
06 Dec 2023
SAGA81
NAGA91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nagasaki winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
73-72
73
72
+1
69avg 66
A12/01
B League
Koshigaya Alphas
#20
L
74-82
74
82
-8
66avg 66
H25/01
B League
Koshigaya Alphas
#20
L
75-90
75
90
-15
66avg 66
H26/01
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
78-81
78
81
-3
71avg 66
H29/01
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#7
L
63-81
63
81
-18
48avg 66
A01/02
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#7
L
68-86
68
86
-18
58avg 66
A02/02
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
L
82-95
82
95
-13
73avg 66
H08/02
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
L
83-102
83
102
-19
75avg 66
H09/02
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#9
L
62-79
62
79
-17
52avg 66
A01/03
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#9
L
65-81
65
81
-16
52avg 66
A02/03
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-16
20-22
19-17
18-17
19-24
23-18
17-16
15-24
17-24
24-21
18-19
16-26
20-15
22-18
20-21
16-27
15-18
21-14
16-27
11-22
18-24
9-15
18-21
23-26
19-23
23-30
20-28
20-14
27-25
19-29
18-23
19-25
22-27
18-18
13-17
9-17
17-24
12-13
15-24
21-20
157.2Avg total
72.3Scored
84.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)73.678.5152.1-4.828%
Season at home (18)75.582.6158.1-7.111%
Season away (21)72.075.0147.0-2.943%
Last 10 (10)72.384.9157.2-12.610%
Last 5 (5)72.088.6160.6-16.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)69.385.4154.7-16.10%
vs Similar ◀ (9)75.079.3154.3-4.311%
vs Weaker (7)82.170.3152.4+11.986%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNagasaki
Date
Competition
Hiroshima D.
#15
L
70-82
70
82
-12
58avg 69
A11/01
B League
Brave Thunders
#21
L
76-80
76
80
-4
68avg 69
H25/01
B League
Brave Thunders
#21
L
78-83
78
83
-5
71avg 69
H26/01
B League
Shiga
#24
W
101-89
101
89
+12
101avg 69
A29/01
B League
Shimane
#8
L
69-78
69
78
-9
62avg 69
H01/02
B League
Shimane
#8
W
96-74
96
74
+22
92avg 69
H02/02
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#12
W
89-85
89
85
+4
88avg 69
A08/02
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#12
L
65-96
65
96
-31
55avg 69
A09/02
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
74-93
74
93
-19
57avg 69
H01/03
B League
Ryukyu
#3
W
89-85
89
85
+4
82avg 69
H02/03
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-21
14-23
18-15
15-23
16-24
28-18
17-17
15-21
24-27
19-15
13-16
22-25
34-22
15-27
26-20
26-20
23-15
12-13
15-22
19-28
28-21
22-19
24-20
22-14
24-21
25-21
21-26
19-17
18-20
20-27
13-27
14-22
21-29
14-20
16-24
23-20
23-24
16-28
18-14
32-19
165.2Avg total
80.7Scored
84.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)75.478.0153.5-2.644%
Season at home (22)73.677.4151.0-3.836%
Season away (17)77.878.9156.7-1.153%
Last 10 (10)80.784.5165.2-3.840%
Last 5 (5)82.686.6169.2-4.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)77.780.7158.3-3.044%
vs Similar ◀ (12)71.080.2151.2-9.217%
vs Weaker (9)84.378.4162.8+5.967%
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q2: -2.6-2.6Q3Q3: -3.9-3.9Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: -5.0-5.0Q4: -0.2-0.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q2: -2.6-2.6Q3Q3: -3.9-3.9Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: -5.0-5.0Q4: -0.2-0.2
SagaNagasaki
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ibaraki Robots
#22
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A12/01
B League
Koshigaya Alphas
#20
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H25/01
B League
Koshigaya Alphas
#20
L
41-45
41
45
-4
H26/01
B League
Kyoto
#10
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H29/01
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#7
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A01/02
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#7
L
27-39
27
39
-12
A02/02
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
L
42-53
42
53
-11
H08/02
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
L
46-54
46
54
-8
H09/02
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#9
L
40-45
40
45
-5
A01/03
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#9
L
29-37
29
37
-8
A02/03
B League
79.9Avg total
38.1Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.340.278.5-2.030%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.641.481.0-1.729%-
Last 30 away (13)36.538.875.2-2.331%-
Last 10 (10)38.141.879.9-3.720%-
Last 5 (5)36.845.682.4-8.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)36.141.978.1-5.821%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)40.138.979.0+1.233%-
vs Weaker (7)40.138.678.7+1.643%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hiroshima D.
#15
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A11/01
B League
Brave Thunders
#21
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H25/01
B League
Brave Thunders
#21
W
43-42
43
42
+1
H26/01
B League
Shiga
#24
D
49-49
49
49
+0
A29/01
B League
Shimane
#8
W
35-28
35
28
+7
H01/02
B League
Shimane
#8
W
50-40
50
40
+10
H02/02
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#12
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A08/02
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#12
L
38-47
38
47
-9
A09/02
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
35-49
35
49
-14
H01/03
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
39-52
39
52
-13
H02/03
B League
85.4Avg total
41.9Scored
43.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.440.279.6-0.850%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.539.778.2-1.259%-
Last 30 away (13)40.540.881.4-0.338%-
Last 10 (10)41.943.585.4-1.650%-
Last 5 (5)42.246.088.2-3.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)38.341.780.0-3.344%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)38.438.877.2-0.442%-
vs Weaker (9)41.840.682.3+1.267%-
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 71.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.6 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.618.8
44.1%
51.2%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.78.1
31.5%
33.4%24.3
🏀 Free throws13.89.6
69.6%
72.7%9.6
They take 68.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 79.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.618.6
50.8%
51.2%37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.710.2
36.8%
33.4%30.6
🏀 Free throws17.712.1
68.4%
72.7%12.1
They take 64.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Saga
LLLLLLLLLW
Nagasaki
WLLWWLWLLL
#18
League position
#16
-17.6
Net rating
-4.5
98.1
Offensive rating
105.7
115.7
Defensive rating
110.2
45.3%
Effective FG%
52.7%
55.3%
Opp. effective FG%
53.8%
19.1%
Turnover %
19.2%
37.0%
Off. rebound %
31.0%
0.20
Free-throw rate
0.28
31.5%
3-point %
36.8%
68.8%
Assist %
66.0%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence98.1 · 105.7Defence115.7 · 110.2Shooting45.3% · 52.7%3-point %31.5% · 36.8%Ball care19.1% · 19.2%Off. rebounds37.0% · 31.0%Free throws0.20 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)10% · 40%
■ Saga   ■ Nagasaki
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Saga wins
4
Nagasaki wins
DateGameScore
02/12/24Saga v Nagasaki78-93
01/12/24Saga v Nagasaki80-51
14/04/24Saga v Nagasaki73-80
13/04/24Saga v Nagasaki61-63
20/03/24Nagasaki v Saga71-80
06/12/23Saga v Nagasaki81-91
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/03/25ADiamond Dolphins65-81
01/03/25ADiamond Dolphins62-79
09/02/25HNeoPhoenix83-102
08/02/25HNeoPhoenix82-95
02/02/25ASeaHorses Mikawa68-86
01/02/25ASeaHorses Mikawa63-81
29/01/25HKyoto78-81
26/01/25HKoshigaya Alphas75-90
25/01/25HKoshigaya Alphas74-82
12/01/25AIbaraki Robots73-72
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/03/25HRyukyu89-85
01/03/25HRyukyu74-93
09/02/25ANagoya Fighting Eagles65-96
08/02/25ANagoya Fighting Eagles89-85
02/02/25HShimane96-74
01/02/25HShimane69-78
29/01/25AShiga101-89
26/01/25HBrave Thunders78-83
25/01/25HBrave Thunders76-80
11/01/25AHiroshima D.70-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Saga
B League 2024-25
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL28%
HomeLLLLL11%
AwayWLLLL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games391821
Win %28%11%43%
Points / game73.675.572.0
Allowed / game78.582.675.0
Point differential-4.8-7.1-2.9
Avg total152.1158.1147.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%11%24%
Close games (≤5 pts) won12% (8)0% (5)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Nagasaki
B League 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW44%
HomeLLWLW36%
AwayLLWWL53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games392217
Win %44%36%53%
Points / game75.473.677.8
Allowed / game78.077.478.9
Point differential-2.6-3.8-1.1
Avg total153.5151.0156.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%14%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (13)33% (12)100% (1)
Overtime %5%5%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 NeoPhoenix3834489%92.978.3+14.6
2 Utsunomiya Brex3933685%86.876.1+10.7
3 Gunma39291074%79.371.3+8.0
4 Alvark39281172%77.070.7+6.3
5 SeaHorses Mikawa39271269%82.174.6+7.5
6 Ryukyu39271269%83.776.4+7.3
7 Shimane39251464%79.974.4+5.5
8 Chiba39251464%81.477.9+3.5
9 Diamond Dolphins39221756%82.381.1+1.2
10 Sun Rockers Shibuya39211854%74.671.6+2.9
11 Kyoto39201951%80.779.1+1.5
12 Osaka39201951%81.681.8-0.2
13 Akita39182146%73.274.4-1.3
14 Hiroshima D.39182146%78.482.1-3.7
15 Nagasaki39172244%75.478.0-2.6
16 Nagoya Fighting Eagles39172244%77.881.0-3.2
17 Yokohama39162341%74.979.1-4.2
18 Koshigaya Alphas39132633%77.281.0-3.8
19 Hokkaido39132633%73.579.3-5.8
20 Brave Thunders39132633%77.185.0-7.9
21 Saga39112828%73.678.5-4.8
22 Ibaraki Robots3983121%73.081.6-8.6
23 Sendai3983121%73.082.5-9.5
24 Shiga3843411%76.089.3-13.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Saga2521192186
Nagasaki3522152092
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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