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NC State vs Virginia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 03 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 16:00
Final 61-76
20-40 41-36
Position#128
Record10-4
FormWLWWW
Points / game87.0
Allowed / game71.1
NC State
USA
vs
Virginia 🏆
USA
Position#19
Record11-3
FormWWWWL
Points / game84.6
Allowed / game71.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · NC State v Virginia
03 Jan 2026
NC S61
VIRG76
06 Jan 2024
NC S76
VIRG60
22 Jan 2022
NC S77
VIRG63
03 Feb 2021
NC S57
VIRG64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

NC State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Virginia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NC StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Seton Hall
#89
L
74-85
74
85
-11
H24/11
NCAA
Boise State
#101
W
81-70
81
70
+11
A25/11
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
97-102
97
102
-5
A27/11
NCAA
Auburn
#188
L
73-83
73
83
-10
A04/12
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#237
W
75-63
75
63
+12
H06/12
NCAA
Liberty
#26
W
85-45
85
45
+40
H11/12
NCAA
Kansas
#58
L
76-77 OT
76
77
-1
H13/12
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
W
108-72
108
72
+36
H18/12
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
76-62
76
62
+14
H21/12
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
70-57
70
57
+13
H31/12
NCAA
1H
2H
33-35
41-50
34-28
47-42
37-47
60-55
35-41
38-42
35-33
40-30
45-19
40-26
30-30
36-36
51-28
57-44
45-26
31-36
36-32
34-25
153.1Avg total
81.5Scored
71.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)87.071.1158.1+15.971%
Season at home (11)87.967.3155.2+20.682%
Season away (3)83.785.0168.7-1.333%
Last 10 (10)81.571.6153.1+9.960%
Last 5 (5)83.062.6145.6+20.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)64.374.1138.4-9.914%
vs Similar ◀ (15)76.375.8152.1+0.533%
vs Weaker (8)86.664.8151.4+21.988%
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marshall
#124
W
104-78
104
78
+26
H15/11
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
W
83-78
83
78
+5
H21/11
NCAA
Butler
#208
L
73-80
73
80
-7
H23/11
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
W
94-69
94
69
+25
H28/11
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
88-69
88
69
+19
A04/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
W
86-73
86
73
+13
H06/12
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
84-60
84
60
+24
H10/12
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H20/12
NCAA
American University
#204
W
95-51
95
51
+44
H22/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
85-95 OT
85
95
-10
A31/12
NCAA
1H
2H
61-33
43-45
40-36
43-42
42-44
31-36
46-29
48-40
46-27
42-42
37-33
49-40
46-32
38-28
24-19
56-53
45-25
50-26
24-23
31-32
159.7Avg total
87.2Scored
72.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)84.671.4156.0+13.379%
Season at home (11)87.166.3153.4+20.891%
Season away (3)75.790.0165.7-14.333%
Last 10 (10)87.272.5159.7+14.780%
Last 5 (5)86.070.2156.2+15.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)65.971.3137.1-5.429%
vs Similar ◀ (9)70.368.0138.3+2.356%
vs Weaker (14)84.271.5155.7+12.779%
This opponent (NC State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +6.2+6.21st half: +11.0+11.02nd half2nd half: +3.8+3.82nd half: +4.7+4.7
-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +6.2+6.21st half: +11.0+11.02nd half2nd half: +3.8+3.82nd half: +4.7+4.7
NC StateVirginia
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
NC StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Seton Hall
#89
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H24/11
NCAA
Boise State
#101
W
34-28
34
28
+6
A25/11
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
37-47
37
47
-10
A27/11
NCAA
Auburn
#188
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A04/12
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#237
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H06/12
NCAA
Liberty
#26
W
45-19
45
19
+26
H11/12
NCAA
Kansas
#58
D
30-30
30
30
+0
H13/12
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
W
51-28
51
28
+23
H18/12
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
45-26
45
26
+19
H21/12
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H31/12
NCAA
70.0Avg total
38.1Scored
31.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.033.469.4+2.657%-
Last 30 at home (19)37.231.268.4+6.063%-
Last 30 away (11)33.937.371.2-3.445%-
Last 10 (10)38.131.970.0+6.260%-
Last 5 (5)41.427.068.4+14.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)28.736.064.7-7.329%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)35.133.969.0+1.147%-
vs Weaker (8)44.130.274.4+13.9100%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marshall
#124
W
61-33
61
33
+28
H15/11
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H21/11
NCAA
Butler
#208
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H23/11
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H28/11
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
46-27
46
27
+19
A04/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H06/12
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H10/12
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
24-19
24
19
+5
H20/12
NCAA
American University
#204
W
45-25
45
25
+20
H22/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
24-23
24
23
+1
A31/12
NCAA
71.2Avg total
41.1Scored
30.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.731.568.2+5.263%-
Last 30 at home (19)38.230.969.1+7.268%-
Last 30 away (11)34.232.566.6+1.755%-
Last 10 (10)41.130.171.2+11.090%-
Last 5 (5)35.226.461.6+8.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)32.333.465.7-1.143%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)33.832.466.2+1.344%-
vs Weaker (14)40.829.970.7+10.986%-
This opponent (NC State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
NC State wins
4
Virginia wins
DateGameScore
31/12/24Virginia v NC State70-67
16/03/24Virginia v NC State65-73 OT
25/01/24Virginia v NC State59-53 OT
06/01/24NC State v Virginia76-60
08/02/23Virginia v NC State63-50
22/01/22NC State v Virginia77-63
24/02/21Virginia v NC State61-68
04/02/21NC State v Virginia57-64
21/01/20Virginia v NC State51-53
NC Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/12/25HWake Forest70-57
21/12/25HOle Miss76-62
18/12/25HTexas Southern108-72
13/12/25HKansas76-77 OT
11/12/25HLiberty85-45
06/12/25HUNC Asheville75-63
04/12/25AAuburn73-83
27/11/25ATexas97-102
25/11/25ABoise State81-70
24/11/25HSeton Hall74-85
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/12/25AVirginia Tech85-95 OT
22/12/25HAmerican University95-51
20/12/25HMaryland80-72
10/12/25HMd.-East. Shore84-60
06/12/25HDayton86-73
04/12/25ATexas88-69
28/11/25HQueens Royals94-69
23/11/25HButler73-80
21/11/25HNorthwestern83-78
15/11/25HMarshall104-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

NC State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW71%
HomeWLWWW82%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games14113
Win %71%82%33%
Points / game87.087.983.7
Allowed / game71.167.385.0
Point differential+15.9+20.6-1.3
Avg total158.1155.2168.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%73%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %7%9%0%
Virginia
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL79%
HomeWWWWW91%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games14113
Win %79%91%33%
Points / game84.687.175.7
Allowed / game71.466.390.0
Point differential+13.3+20.8-14.3
Avg total156.0153.4165.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%73%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %7%0%33%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 North Carolina1413193%81.263.7+17.5
2 Duke1312192%87.063.8+23.2
3 California1513287%81.568.5+12.9
4 Miami (FL)1412286%88.567.8+20.7
5 Virginia Tech1412286%83.973.5+10.4
6 SMU Mustangs1311285%91.176.5+14.6
7 Stanford1512380%78.970.9+8.1
8 Louisville1411379%90.469.1+21.2
9 Virginia1411379%84.671.4+13.3
10 Clemson1411379%78.665.5+13.1
11 NC State1410471%87.071.1+15.9
12 Notre Dame1510567%74.366.7+7.6
13 Syracuse149564%73.664.8+8.9
14 Wake Forest149564%82.074.0+8.0
15 Georgia Tech149564%76.771.4+5.4
16 Boston College137654%70.666.7+3.9
17 Florida State147750%83.678.4+5.3
18 Pittsburgh147750%73.668.4+5.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
NC State204161
Virginia403676
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