PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Neptunas vs Aris Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 18 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 87-93
28-21 18-29 18-23 23-20
Position#14
Record3-4
FormLWWLW
Points / game91.4
Allowed / game95.3
vs
Aris 🏆
Position#13
Record3-4
FormLWWLL
Points / game79.7
Allowed / game84.3
EuropeEurocupRound 8· Svyturio Arena
European cup2025
Meetings · Neptunas v Aris
18 Nov 2025
NEP87
ARI93
03 Feb 2016
NEP72
ARI68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neptunas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Aris winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NeptunasLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Venezia
#9
L
69-89
69
89
-20
51avg 81
A15/10
Eurocup
Rytas
#2
L
93-97
93
97
-4
85avg 81
A18/10
LKL
Hamburg
#20
W
97-88
97
88
+9
88avg 81
H21/10
Eurocup
Jonava
#8
W
117-113
117
113
+4
113avg 81
H26/10
LKL
Cedevita Olimpija
#5
W
94-91
94
91
+3
91avg 81
A29/10
Eurocup
Siauliai
#4
L
85-89
85
89
-4
83avg 81
A02/11
LKL
Manresa
#10
W
100-87
100
87
+13
95avg 81
H05/11
Eurocup
Juventus
#7
W
85-72
85
72
+13
85avg 81
H08/11
LKL
Hapoel Jerusalem
#3
L
93-110
93
110
-17
78avg 81
A11/11
Eurocup
Juventus
#7
W
97-90
97
90
+7
87avg 81
A15/11
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
10-27
16-24
21-23
22-15
17-21
27-33
20-19
29-24
35-32
22-15
18-26
22-15
32-26
20-36
39-27
26-24
34-16
15-26
21-25
24-24
26-16
23-26
20-17
16-30
27-17
31-27
22-20
20-23
12-15
24-23
29-20
20-14
28-29
28-25
27-28
10-28
23-27
31-18
19-24
24-21
185.6Avg total
93.0Scored
92.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)91.495.3186.7-3.943%
Season at home (3)99.794.0193.7+5.767%
Season away (4)85.296.2181.5-11.025%
Last 10 (10)93.092.6185.6+0.460%
Last 5 (5)92.089.6181.6+2.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)81.793.3175.0-11.621%
vs Similar ◀ (7)95.992.0187.9+3.957%
vs Weaker (9)93.987.2181.1+6.778%
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ArisLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAris
Date
Competition
Cedevita Olimpija
#5
L
59-80
59
80
-21
49avg 70
A14/10
Eurocup
Maroussi
#12
L
103-108 OT
103
108
-5
95avg 70
A18/10
Basket League
Manresa
#10
L
79-86
79
86
-7
62avg 70
H21/10
Eurocup
Panionios
#13
W
90-73
90
73
+17
82avg 70
A25/10
Basket League
Hapoel Jerusalem
#3
L
76-103
76
103
-27
65avg 70
A28/10
Eurocup
PAOK
#3
L
73-78
73
78
-5
60avg 70
H01/11
Basket League
Slask Wroclaw
#18
W
85-78
85
78
+7
81avg 70
H05/11
Eurocup
Mykonos
#7
W
78-61
78
61
+17
82avg 70
H08/11
Basket League
Bahcesehir Kol.
#7
L
76-86
76
86
-10
60avg 70
H11/11
Eurocup
Panathinaikos
#2
L
77-82
77
82
-5
74avg 70
A16/11
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-20
17-24
16-19
8-17
18-19
19-27
16-20
30-17
18-27
25-17
21-22
15-20
20-13
18-21
25-20
27-19
21-23
27-27
20-31
8-22
13-14
20-27
23-19
17-18
21-6
29-24
17-14
18-34
14-14
25-19
23-14
16-14
23-16
16-22
20-19
17-29
15-23
36-18
12-20
14-21
163.1Avg total
79.6Scored
83.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)79.784.3164.0-4.643%
Season at home (4)84.581.5166.0+3.050%
Season away (3)73.388.0161.3-14.733%
Last 10 (10)79.683.5163.1-3.930%
Last 5 (5)77.877.0154.8+0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)78.287.4165.6-9.220%
vs Similar ◀ (13)80.980.0160.9+0.954%
vs Weaker (7)85.180.0165.1+5.157%
This opponent (Neptunas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: +0.6+0.6Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: -4.1-4.1
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: +0.6+0.6Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: -4.1-4.1
NeptunasAris
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Venezia
#9
L
26-51
26
51
-25
A15/10
Eurocup
Rytas
#2
L
44-54
44
54
-10
A18/10
LKL
Hamburg
#20
W
57-47
57
47
+10
H21/10
Eurocup
Jonava
#8
L
52-62
52
62
-10
H26/10
LKL
Cedevita Olimpija
#5
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A29/10
Eurocup
Siauliai
#4
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A02/11
LKL
Manresa
#10
W
58-44
58
44
+14
H05/11
Eurocup
Juventus
#7
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H08/11
LKL
Hapoel Jerusalem
#3
W
56-54
56
54
+2
A11/11
Eurocup
Juventus
#7
W
54-45
54
45
+9
A15/11
LKL
96.0Avg total
48.1Scored
47.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.445.488.7-2.053%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.243.989.1+1.464%-
Last 30 away (16)41.846.788.4-4.944%-
Last 10 (10)48.147.996.0+0.260%-
Last 5 (5)50.644.695.2+6.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)39.646.586.1-6.943%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)44.645.189.7-0.657%-
vs Weaker (9)48.243.892.0+4.467%-
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ArisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cedevita Olimpija
#5
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A14/10
Eurocup
Maroussi
#12
L
37-46
37
46
-9
A18/10
Basket League
Manresa
#10
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H21/10
Eurocup
Panionios
#13
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A25/10
Basket League
Hapoel Jerusalem
#3
L
48-50
48
50
-2
A28/10
Eurocup
PAOK
#3
L
33-41
33
41
-8
H01/11
Basket League
Slask Wroclaw
#18
W
50-30
50
30
+20
H05/11
Eurocup
Mykonos
#7
W
39-33
39
33
+6
H08/11
Basket League
Bahcesehir Kol.
#7
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H11/11
Eurocup
Panathinaikos
#2
W
51-41
51
41
+10
A16/11
Basket League
81.4Avg total
41.3Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.939.980.8+1.053%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.138.778.8+1.450%-
Last 30 away (14)41.741.383.0+0.457%-
Last 10 (10)41.340.181.4+1.250%-
Last 5 (5)42.436.679.0+5.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)43.945.289.1-1.330%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)38.238.276.4-0.154%-
vs Weaker (7)41.635.477.0+6.186%-
This opponent (Neptunas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 92.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.2 points a game
48%
32%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.921.7
57.3%
54.5%43.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.39.7
35.5%
34.4%29.1
🏀 Free throws26.019.5
75.0%
75.2%19.5
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aristheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aris: 78.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀25%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.2 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 25% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.2 points a game
48%
32%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.416.6
49.7%
54.5%33.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.18.7
33.3%
34.4%26.1
🏀 Free throws25.119.3
76.9%
75.2%19.3
They take 59.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Nov 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Neptunas
WLWWLWWWLL
Aris
LLWWLLWLLL
#14
League position
#13
+0.3
Net rating
-5.4
119.5
Offensive rating
104.4
119.3
Defensive rating
109.8
55.6%
Effective FG%
49.8%
57.6%
Opp. effective FG%
50.7%
17.5%
Turnover %
20.5%
36.6%
Off. rebound %
29.7%
0.40
Free-throw rate
0.42
35.5%
3-point %
33.3%
58.9%
Assist %
60.9%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence119.5 · 104.4Defence119.3 · 109.8Shooting55.6% · 49.8%3-point %35.5% · 33.3%Ball care17.5% · 20.5%Off. rebounds36.6% · 29.7%Free throws0.40 · 0.42Form (last 10/10)60% · 30%
■ Neptunas   ■ Aris
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Neptunas wins
1
Aris wins
DateGameScore
03/02/16Neptunas v Aris72-68
06/01/16Aris v Neptunas84-58
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/25AJuventus97-90
11/11/25AHapoel Jerusalem93-110
08/11/25HJuventus85-72
05/11/25HManresa100-87
02/11/25ASiauliai85-89
29/10/25ACedevita Olimpija94-91
26/10/25HJonava117-113
21/10/25HHamburg97-88
18/10/25ARytas93-97
15/10/25AVenezia69-89
Arislast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/11/25APanathinaikos77-82
11/11/25HBahcesehir Kol.76-86
08/11/25HMykonos78-61
05/11/25HSlask Wroclaw85-78
01/11/25HPAOK73-78
28/10/25AHapoel Jerusalem76-103
25/10/25APanionios90-73
21/10/25HManresa79-86
18/10/25AMaroussi103-108 OT
14/10/25ACedevita Olimpija59-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Neptunas
Eurocup 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL43%
HomeLWW67%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %43%67%25%
Points / game91.499.785.2
Allowed / game95.394.096.2
Point differential-3.9+5.7-11.0
Avg total186.7193.7181.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Aris
Eurocup 2025
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL43%
HomeWLWL50%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %43%50%33%
Points / game79.784.573.3
Allowed / game84.381.588.0
Point differential-4.6+3.0-14.7
Avg total164.0166.0161.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 JL Bourg76186%81.069.3+11.7
2 Bahcesehir Kol.76186%91.179.7+11.4
3 Turk Telekom75271%88.076.3+11.7
4 Besiktas75271%91.181.4+9.7
5 Hapoel Jerusalem75271%95.386.4+8.9
6 Buducnost75271%87.078.4+8.6
7 Cedevita Olimpija75271%86.978.6+8.3
8 Cluj-Napoca74357%97.993.0+4.9
9 Ulm74357%89.393.6-4.3
10 Venezia73443%86.484.3+2.1
11 London Lions73443%78.181.6-3.4
12 Slask Wroclaw73443%83.186.9-3.7
13 Neptunas73443%91.495.3-3.9
14 Aris73443%79.784.3-4.6
15 Manresa73443%81.486.0-4.6
16 Trento73443%76.985.7-8.9
17 Chemnitz72529%81.380.6+0.7
18 Lietkabelis71614%78.690.3-11.7
19 Panionios71614%75.789.9-14.1
20 Hamburg7070%78.096.9-18.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Neptunas2818182387
Aris2129232093
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.