PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Nevezis vs Rytas Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 18 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 16:50
Projected 82-91
Projected total 172.7
Scheduled
Position#10
Record2-7
FormLWLWW
Points / game75.8
Allowed / game83.1
Nevezis
Lithuania
Vs
23%
77%
■ NEV 23%■ RYT 77%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.2/10
Around normal
3.6/10
Below normal
Rytas
Lithuania
Position#2
Record5-3
FormWLWLW
Points / game89.6
Allowed / game85.4
LithuaniaLKL· Kedainiu arena
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Nevezis v Rytas
16 Feb 2027
NEV v RYT
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
NEV v RYT
upcoming
13 May 2026
NEV88
RYT117
21 Sep 2025
NEV64
RYT82
21 May 2025
NEV101
RYT105
20 Oct 2024
NEV83
RYT93
30 Mar 2024
NEV79
RYT88
24 Sep 2023
NEV85
RYT97
28 Dec 2022
NEV84
RYT86
07 Dec 2022
NEV78
RYT70
05 Mar 2022
NEV85
RYT109
30 Oct 2021
NEV68
RYT100
03 May 2020
NEV v RYT
upcoming
09 Nov 2019
NEV68
RYT65
08 Feb 2019
NEV74
RYT75
26 Sep 2018
NEV70
RYT80
03 Feb 2018
NEV73
RYT83
28 Oct 2017
NEV76
RYT73
17 Apr 2017
NEV56
RYT92
07 Jan 2017
NEV68
RYT81
20 Mar 2016
NEV59
RYT78
30 Dec 2015
NEV72
RYT83
09 Nov 2014
NEV52
RYT96
02 Oct 2014
NEV59
RYT95
04 May 2014
NEV69
RYT93
29 Dec 2013
NEV61
RYT78
05 Nov 2012
NEV80
RYT102
22 Oct 2011
NEV67
RYT100
29 Sep 2009
NEV65
RYT80
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Nevezis will host Rytas in the LKL on 18 November 2026, and the Pythia model names Rytas the clear favourite, rating them 77% to win because they have a 5-3 record, 89.6 points per game and 85.4 allowed, and sit third in the league, while Nevezis is 1-7, 73.9 points per game and 82.5 allowed, tenth in the standings. Nevezis has struggled at home, 1-3 with 77.8 points scored and 78.0 allowed, and won three of their last five games, including a 90-79 victory over Taurage on 11 November, a 76-83 loss to Siauliai on 8 November and a 87-76 win over Gargzdai on 2 November. Rytas has been solid on the road, 4-1 with 88.0 points scored and 81.4 allowed, and also won three of their last five, highlighted by a 102-82 home win over Nanterre on 11 November, an 81-85 away loss to Lietkabelis on 7 November and a 91-87 away win over Jonava on 5 November. In the ten meetings between the clubs, Rytas has won every encounter, most recently 117-88 on 13 May 2026. The model projects a 82-91 score for the game, with a total of 172.7 points and a 4% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nevezis win
22.9%fair 4.37
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Rytas win
77.1%fair 1.30
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NevezisLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNevezis
Date
Competition
Taurage
#4
L
76-81
76
81
-5
60avg 72
A07/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
76-80
76
80
-4
72avg 72
H11/10
LKL
Gargzdai
#1
L
86-101
86
101
-15
85avg 72
H14/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Lietkabelis
#4
L
72-73
72
73
-1
70avg 72
H17/10
LKL
Jurbarkas
#3
W
93-69
93
69
+24
85avg 72
A20/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Taurage
#9
L
76-80
76
80
-4
65avg 72
A24/10
LKL
Gargzdai
#3
W
87-76
87
76
+11
no box
H02/11
LKL
Siauliai
#6
L
76-83
76
83
-7
no box
H08/11
LKL
Taurage
#4
W
90-79
90
79
+11
no box
H11/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Juventus
#8
W
91-88
91
88
+3
no box
H14/11
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-26
18-23
23-13
17-19
22-16
18-18
19-25
17-21
18-18
20-27
25-30
23-26
19-20
9-22
21-20
23-11
27-20
21-25
24-13
21-11
22-19
18-24
15-18
21-19
22-25
27-17
18-19
20-15
26-23
23-18
15-20
12-22
23-20
22-17
28-22
17-20
28-23
18-23
27-21
18-21
163.3Avg total
82.3Scored
81.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)75.883.1158.9-7.322%
Season at home (5)80.480.0160.4+0.440%
Season away (4)70.087.0157.0-17.00%
Last 10 (10)82.381.0163.3+1.340%
Last 5 (5)84.081.2165.2+2.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)81.090.9172.0-9.923%
vs Similar (5)80.888.2169.0-7.420%
vs Weaker (3)86.376.3162.7+10.067%
This opponent (Rytas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
RytasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRytas
Date
Competition
Neptunas
#5
W
86-77
86
77
+9
82avg 87
H10/10
LKL
Nanterre
#38
L
65-93
65
93
-28
57avg 87
A13/10
Champions League
Siauliai
#6
W
95-88
95
88
+7
97avg 87
A17/10
LKL
Taurage
#9
W
79-71
79
71
+8
76avg 87
A21/10
LKL
Juventus
#8
W
94-76
94
76
+18
94avg 87
A25/10
LKL
Trabzonspor
#26
W
97-81
97
81
+16
93avg 87
H28/10
Champions League
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
89-94
89
94
-5
no box
H02/11
LKL
Jonava
#7
W
91-87
91
87
+4
no box
A05/11
LKL
Lietkabelis
#4
L
81-85
81
85
-4
no box
A07/11
LKL
Nanterre
#38
W
102-82
102
82
+20
no box
H11/11
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-22
22-18
27-21
19-16
17-21
13-14
15-31
20-27
21-27
27-15
28-24
19-22
21-24
12-17
24-16
22-14
30-25
21-17
20-10
23-24
25-22
21-7
26-28
25-24
21-25
28-17
20-28
20-24
27-22
22-22
12-22
30-21
21-20
25-22
14-23
21-20
32-16
20-20
22-25
28-21
171.3Avg total
87.9Scored
83.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)89.685.4175.0+4.262%
Season at home (3)92.392.0184.3+0.333%
Season away (5)88.081.4169.4+6.680%
Last 10 (10)87.983.4171.3+4.570%
Last 5 (5)92.085.8177.8+6.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)79.584.5164.0-5.00%
vs Similar (5)93.085.6178.6+7.480%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)90.884.5175.3+6.370%
This opponent (Nevezis) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1301%1352%1403%1456%1508%15510%16012%16512%17011%17510%1808%1856%1904%1953%2002%2051%2101%2150%220
0%1302%1406%15010%16012%17010%1806%1903%2001%2100%220
Pythia expects about 173 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 170-174 (12%).
Over/Under 164.5
Over 164.5
69.2%
Under 164.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 169.5
Over 169.5
57.3%
Under 169.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 174.5
Over 174.5
44.7%
Under 174.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Nevezis total 82.5
Over 82.5
47.0%
Under 82.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevezis total 86.5
Over 86.5
32.3%
Under 86.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevezis total 90.5
Over 90.5
20.2%
Under 90.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rytas total 79
Over 79
88.7%
Under 79
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rytas total 83
Over 83
79.0%
Under 83
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rytas total 87
Over 87
65.3%
Under 87
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-421%-391%-362%-332%-303%-275%-246%-218%-189%-1510%-1210%-910%-68%-35%+06%+35%+63%+92%+121%+151%+181%+21
1%-392%-333%-276%-219%-1510%-98%-36%+33%+91%+151%+21
Margin from Nevezis's side (positive = Nevezis win). Pythia's expected margin is -8.8; Nevezis win by 1+ in 20% of simulations.
Spread Nevezis -3
NEV -3
16.8%
RYT +3
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
NEV
No market prices yet.
RYT
No market prices yet.
Spread Nevezis 0
NEV 0
22.9%
RYT 0
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
NEV
No market prices yet.
RYT
No market prices yet.
Spread Nevezis +3
NEV +3
29.3%
RYT -3
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
NEV
No market prices yet.
RYT
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +4.2+4.2Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: +1.4+1.4
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +4.2+4.2Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: +1.4+1.4
NevezisRytas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NevezisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Taurage
#4
L
36-49
36
49
-13
A07/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H11/10
LKL
Gargzdai
#1
L
38-45
38
45
-7
H14/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Lietkabelis
#4
L
28-42
28
42
-14
H17/10
LKL
Jurbarkas
#3
W
48-45
48
45
+3
A20/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Taurage
#9
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A24/10
LKL
Gargzdai
#3
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H02/11
LKL
Siauliai
#6
W
49-41
49
41
+8
H08/11
LKL
Taurage
#4
W
45-37
45
37
+8
H11/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Juventus
#8
D
46-46
46
46
+0
H14/11
LKL
84.3Avg total
41.9Scored
42.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.645.885.4-6.230%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.645.084.6-5.433%-
Last 30 away (15)39.546.686.1-7.127%-
Last 10 (10)41.942.484.3-0.550%-
Last 5 (5)45.841.887.6+4.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)38.946.585.4-7.732%-
vs Similar (5)40.643.884.4-3.20%-
vs Weaker (3)43.043.786.7-0.767%-
This opponent (Rytas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
RytasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Neptunas
#5
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H10/10
LKL
Nanterre
#38
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A13/10
Champions League
Siauliai
#6
W
48-42
48
42
+6
A17/10
LKL
Taurage
#9
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A21/10
LKL
Juventus
#8
W
51-42
51
42
+9
A25/10
LKL
Trabzonspor
#26
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H28/10
Champions League
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H02/11
LKL
Jonava
#7
W
49-44
49
44
+5
A05/11
LKL
Lietkabelis
#4
W
46-42
46
42
+4
A07/11
LKL
Nanterre
#38
W
52-36
52
36
+16
H11/11
Champions League
83.7Avg total
44.4Scored
39.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.741.486.2+3.363%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.639.485.0+6.175%-
Last 30 away (14)43.843.787.5+0.150%-
Last 10 (10)44.439.383.7+5.170%-
Last 5 (5)48.438.687.0+9.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)43.042.085.0+1.050%-
vs Similar (5)39.842.482.2-2.640%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)46.041.287.1+4.870%-
This opponent (Nevezis) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nevezistheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nevezis: 75.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.2 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.4 points a game
51%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.821.1
50.5%
55.6%42.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.56.0
29.3%
35.3%18.0
🏀 Free throws23.615.6
66.1%
70.8%15.6
They take 62.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Rytastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Rytas: 87.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.8 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.4 points a game
51%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.120.6
58.7%
55.6%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.49.3
33.9%
35.3%27.9
🏀 Free throws27.618.8
68.1%
70.8%18.8
They take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nevezis
WWLWLWLLLL
Rytas
WLWLWWWWLW
#10
League position
#2
-10.2
Net rating
+2.5
88.9
Offensive rating
99.7
99.1
Defensive rating
97.2
48.3%
Effective FG%
55.3%
54.4%
Opp. effective FG%
51.1%
14.8%
Turnover %
15.0%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.44
29.3%
3-point %
33.9%
59.8%
Assist %
61.9%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence88.9 · 99.7Defence99.1 · 97.2Shooting48.3% · 55.3%3-point %29.3% · 33.9%Ball care14.8% · 15.0%Free throws0.38 · 0.44Form (last 10/10)40% · 70%
■ Nevezis   ■ Rytas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Nevezis wins
10
Rytas wins
DateGameScore
13/05/26Nevezis v Rytas88-117
04/04/26Rytas v Nevezis105-91
06/12/25Rytas v Nevezis104-74
21/09/25Nevezis v Rytas64-82
21/05/25Nevezis v Rytas101-105
01/03/25Rytas v Nevezis99-98
14/12/24Rytas v Nevezis89-69
20/10/24Nevezis v Rytas83-93
30/03/24Nevezis v Rytas79-88
10/02/24Rytas v Nevezis113-64
Nevezislast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HJuventus91-88
11/11/26HTaurage90-79
08/11/26HSiauliai76-83
02/11/26HGargzdai87-76
24/10/26ATaurage76-80
20/10/26AJurbarkas93-69
17/10/26HLietkabelis72-73
14/10/26HGargzdai86-101
11/10/26HZalgiris Kaunas76-80
07/10/26ATaurage76-81
Rytaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HNanterre102-82
07/11/26ALietkabelis81-85
05/11/26AJonava91-87
02/11/26HZalgiris Kaunas89-94
28/10/26HTrabzonspor97-81
25/10/26AJuventus94-76
21/10/26ATaurage79-71
17/10/26ASiauliai95-88
13/10/26ANanterre65-93
10/10/26HNeptunas86-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nevezis
LKL 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW22%
HomeLLWLW40%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %22%40%0%
Points / game75.880.470.0
Allowed / game83.180.087.0
Point differential-7.3+0.4-17.0
Avg total158.9160.4157.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)33% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Rytas
LKL 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL62%
HomeLWL33%
AwayWWWWL80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games835
Win %62%33%80%
Points / game89.692.388.0
Allowed / game85.492.081.4
Point differential+4.2+0.3+6.6
Avg total175.0184.3169.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%0%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Zalgiris Kaunas990100%93.276.1+17.1
2 Rytas85362%89.685.4+4.2
3 Gargzdai106460%88.387.3+1.0
4 Lietkabelis106460%79.780.3-0.6
5 Neptunas95456%85.284.7+0.6
6 Siauliai105550%84.685.6-1.0
7 Jonava93633%78.482.0-3.6
8 Juventus103730%85.588.3-2.8
9 Taurage103730%80.486.5-6.1
10 Nevezis92722%75.883.1-7.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.