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Notre Dame vs Florida State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 79-82
32-41 47-41
Position#269
Record11-12
FormLWLLL
Points / game73.6
Allowed / game72.3
vs
Position#167
Record10-12
FormLWLWW
Points / game80.8
Allowed / game79.6
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Notre Dame v Florida State
07 Feb 2026
NOTR79
FLOR82
13 Jan 2024
NOTR58
FLOR67
17 Jan 2023
NOTR71
FLOR84
06 Mar 2021
NOTR83
FLOR73
04 Mar 2020
NOTR71
FLOR73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Notre Dame winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Florida State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Notre DameUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stanford
#103
W
47-40
47
40
+7
A31/12
NCAA
California
#79
L
71-72
71
72
-1
A03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
61-76
61
76
-15
H10/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
69-81
69
81
-12
H14/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
76-89
76
89
-13
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
69-91
69
91
-22
A22/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
68-64
68
64
+4
H24/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
97-100 OT
97
100
-3
H28/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
72-86
72
86
-14
A31/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
65-76
65
76
-11
A05/02
NCAA
1H
2H
22-17
25-23
31-27
40-45
34-39
27-37
39-39
30-42
34-45
42-44
33-42
36-49
24-35
44-29
44-35
29-38
31-40
41-46
32-38
33-38
147.0Avg total
69.5Scored
77.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)73.672.3145.9+1.248%
Season at home (13)78.871.1149.9+7.869%
Season away (10)66.774.0140.7-7.320%
Last 10 (10)69.577.5147.0-8.020%
Last 5 (5)74.283.4157.6-9.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)68.574.0142.5-5.533%
vs Similar ◀ (11)79.272.5151.6+6.773%
vs Weaker (1)82.058.0140.0+24.0100%
This opponent (Florida State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
W
87-63
87
63
+24
H23/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
66-79
66
79
-13
A31/12
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
87-91
87
91
-4
H03/01
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
69-113
69
113
-44
H10/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
86-94
86
94
-8
A14/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
L
68-69
68
69
-1
H17/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
65-63
65
63
+2
A21/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
80-83
80
83
-3
A24/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
63-61
63
61
+2
H29/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
88-80
88
80
+8
H31/01
NCAA
1H
2H
43-21
44-42
34-40
32-39
42-42
45-49
31-56
38-57
40-43
46-51
34-31
34-38
38-37
27-26
34-46
46-37
36-23
27-38
41-33
47-47
155.5Avg total
75.9Scored
79.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)80.879.6160.4+1.245%
Season at home (15)84.578.3162.9+6.260%
Season away (7)72.782.3155.0-9.614%
Last 10 (10)75.979.6155.5-3.740%
Last 5 (5)72.871.2144.0+1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)71.686.2157.8-14.621%
vs Similar ◀ (10)79.178.2157.3+0.940%
vs Weaker (6)88.363.3151.7+25.083%
This opponent (Notre Dame) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -3.3-3.31st half: +0.1+0.12nd half2nd half: -4.4-4.42nd half: -3.8-3.8
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -3.3-3.31st half: +0.1+0.12nd half2nd half: -4.4-4.42nd half: -3.8-3.8
Notre DameFlorida State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Notre DameLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stanford
#103
W
22-17
22
17
+5
A31/12
NCAA
California
#79
W
31-27
31
27
+4
A03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H10/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H14/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
34-45
34
45
-11
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A22/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
24-35
24
35
-11
H24/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H28/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A31/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A05/02
NCAA
68.1Avg total
32.4Scored
35.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.433.265.6-0.843%-
Last 30 at home (17)33.730.864.5+2.953%-
Last 30 away (13)30.836.367.1-5.531%-
Last 10 (10)32.435.768.1-3.330%-
Last 5 (5)32.838.070.8-5.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)32.135.867.9-3.828%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)32.329.361.5+3.064%-
vs Weaker (1)41.029.070.0+12.0100%-
This opponent (Florida State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
W
43-21
43
21
+22
H23/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A31/12
NCAA
Duke
#8
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H03/01
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
31-56
31
56
-25
H10/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A14/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H17/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A21/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A24/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
36-23
36
23
+13
H29/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
41-33
41
33
+8
H31/01
NCAA
74.5Avg total
37.3Scored
37.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.537.273.7-0.750%-
Last 30 at home (20)37.835.673.4+2.260%-
Last 30 away (10)33.940.574.4-6.630%-
Last 10 (10)37.337.274.5+0.150%-
Last 5 (5)36.634.070.6+2.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)33.643.176.7-9.429%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)37.433.871.2+3.670%-
vs Weaker (6)41.729.371.0+12.367%-
This opponent (Notre Dame) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Notre Dame wins
7
Florida State wins
Notre Damelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/02/26ALouisville65-76
31/01/26ASyracuse72-86
28/01/26HVirginia97-100 OT
24/01/26HBoston College68-64
22/01/26ANorth Carolina69-91
17/01/26AVirginia Tech76-89
14/01/26HMiami (FL)69-81
10/01/26HClemson61-76
03/01/26ACalifornia71-72
31/12/25AStanford47-40
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/01/26HStanford88-80
29/01/26HCalifornia63-61
24/01/26ASMU Mustangs80-83
21/01/26AMiami (FL)65-63
17/01/26HWake Forest68-69
14/01/26ASyracuse86-94
10/01/26HNC State69-113
03/01/26HDuke87-91
31/12/25ANorth Carolina66-79
23/12/25HJacksonville Dolphins87-63

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Notre Dame
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL48%
HomeLLLWL69%
AwayLLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231310
Win %48%69%20%
Points / game73.678.866.7
Allowed / game72.371.174.0
Point differential+1.2+7.8-7.3
Avg total145.9149.9140.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%38%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)60% (5)33% (3)
Overtime %9%8%10%
Florida State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW45%
HomeLLLWW60%
AwayLLLWL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22157
Win %45%60%14%
Points / game80.884.572.7
Allowed / game79.678.382.3
Point differential+1.2+6.2-9.6
Avg total160.4162.9155.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%47%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)33% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2221195%84.163.6+20.5
2 Virginia2420483%81.669.5+12.1
3 Clemson2319483%76.064.5+11.5
4 North Carolina2218482%83.170.6+12.5
5 Miami (FL)2318578%84.270.0+14.2
6 NC State2418675%85.772.5+13.2
7 Louisville2317674%85.770.7+15.1
8 California2317674%78.871.2+7.6
9 SMU Mustangs2316770%86.477.3+9.1
10 Virginia Tech2416867%79.774.4+5.3
11 Stanford2314961%75.373.1+2.2
12 Syracuse24131154%75.170.8+4.4
13 Wake Forest23111248%80.078.0+2.0
14 Notre Dame23111248%73.672.3+1.2
15 Georgia Tech23111248%75.074.7+0.3
16 Florida State22101245%80.879.6+1.2
17 Boston College2391439%67.368.6-1.3
18 Pittsburgh2491538%70.871.5-0.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Notre Dame324779
Florida State414182
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