PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Ohio faces Morehead State in the NCAA on 18 November 2026, with Ohio the clear favourite as the Pythia model rates them 85% to win, reflecting their undefeated 2-0 season record, 83.0 points per game and 73.5 points allowed per game, and a league position of 91 that places them well above Morehead State's 1-2 record, 76.3 points per game and 83.3 points allowed per game, league position 286. Ohio's home slate shows a 1-0 record at home, 80.0 points scored and 70.0 points allowed, while Morehead State's road form is 0-2, 57.5 points scored and 95.0 points allowed. Ohio's last five games include a 80-70 win over N. Carolina A&T at home on 7 November 2026 and a 86-77 win over South Alabama away on 2 November 2026, whereas Morehead State's recent results feature a 57-107 loss to Louisville away on 7 November 2026 and a 114-60 win over Virginia-Lynchburg at home on 5 November 2026. Head-to-head history shows Ohio leading 2-1, with the last meeting on 7 December 2024 ending 88-76 for Ohio. Pythia projects a score of 84-72, a total of 155.6 points, and a 3% chance of overtime; Ohio's 85% win probability and 15% chance for Morehead State. The projected spread of 12 points means Ohio covers the line with a probability of 85%. The game will be decided by Ohio's offensive consistency and defensive pressure, as shown by their current season numbers.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 83.0 | 73.5 | 156.5 | +9.5 | 100% |
| Season at home (1) | 80.0 | 70.0 | 150.0 | +10.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 86.0 | 77.0 | 163.0 | +9.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.7 | 80.7 | 159.4 | -2.0 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 86.2 | 87.4 | 173.6 | -1.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 73.1 | 87.1 | 160.2 | -14.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (15) | 79.5 | 75.5 | 155.0 | +3.9 | 67% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 81.6 | 66.6 | 148.2 | +15.0 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 76.3 | 83.3 | 159.7 | -7.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 114.0 | 60.0 | 174.0 | +54.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 57.5 | 95.0 | 152.5 | -37.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 75.0 | 75.2 | 150.2 | -0.2 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 72.4 | 80.8 | 153.2 | -8.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (11) | 71.5 | 81.6 | 153.2 | -10.1 | 36% |
| vs Similar (9) | 69.6 | 72.2 | 141.8 | -2.7 | 67% |
| vs Weaker (9) | 79.0 | 67.4 | 146.4 | +11.6 | 89% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.2 | 36.2 | 72.4 | -0.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 37.2 | 36.2 | 73.4 | +1.1 | 61% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 34.6 | 36.3 | 70.9 | -1.8 | 33% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.4 | 36.1 | 72.5 | +0.3 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.4 | 39.4 | 78.8 | +0.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 34.6 | 44.4 | 79.0 | -9.9 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 35.9 | 33.9 | 69.8 | +1.9 | 67% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 36.8 | 28.8 | 65.6 | +8.0 | 80% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.7 | 34.5 | 70.3 | +1.2 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 39.0 | 32.1 | 71.1 | +6.9 | 54% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 33.2 | 36.4 | 69.6 | -3.2 | 35% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.7 | 34.8 | 70.5 | +0.9 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.4 | 39.8 | 76.2 | -3.4 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (11) | 33.7 | 38.9 | 72.6 | -5.2 | 27% | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 32.7 | 33.7 | 66.3 | -1.0 | 44% | - |
| vs Weaker (9) | 38.4 | 30.6 | 69.0 | +7.9 | 56% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 07/12/24 | Ohio v Morehead State | 88-76 |
| 21/12/19 | Ohio v Morehead State | 82-76 |
| 23/03/16 | Ohio v Morehead State | 72-77 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | H | N. Carolina A&T | 80-70 |
| 03/11/26 | A | South Alabama | 86-77 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Kent State | 75-86 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Miami (Ohio) | 108-110 OT |
| 04/03/26 | A | UMass | 82-94 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Toledo | 67-79 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Northern Illinois | 74-66 |
| 18/02/26 | H | Ball State | 69-57 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Miami (Ohio) | 74-90 |
| 08/02/26 | A | Old Dominion | 72-78 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | A | Louisville | 57-107 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Virginia-Lynchburg | 114-60 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Western Kentucky | 58-83 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Tennessee State | 67-93 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Southeast Missouri State | 66-61 |
| 27/02/26 | A | UALR | 76-70 |
| 25/02/26 | H | Southern Indiana | 64-63 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Western Illinois | 81-59 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Eastern Illinois | 73-70 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Tennessee State | 94-86 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WW | 100% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 83.0 | 80.0 | 86.0 |
| Allowed / game | 73.5 | 70.0 | 77.0 |
| Point differential | +9.5 | +10.0 | +9.0 |
| Avg total | 156.5 | 150.0 | 163.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWL | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 76.3 | 114.0 | 57.5 |
| Allowed / game | 83.3 | 60.0 | 95.0 |
| Point differential | -7.0 | +54.0 | -37.5 |
| Avg total | 159.7 | 174.0 | 152.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Akron | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 93.5 | 62.5 | +31.0 |
| 2 |  Central Michigan | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 68.7 | +20.3 |
| 3 |  Bowling Green | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 76.0 | +10.3 |
| 4 | Ohio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 73.5 | +9.5 |
| 5 |  Miami (Ohio) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 75.0 | +8.0 |
| 6 |  Western Michigan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.0 | 60.8 | +18.2 |
| 7 |  Eastern Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 63.3 | +14.0 |
| 8 |  UMass | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 66.0 | 64.3 | +1.7 |
| 9 |  Northern Illinois | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.2 | 75.5 | +5.8 |
| 10 |  Kent State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.3 | 75.3 | +8.0 |
| 11 |  Ball State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.0 | 66.7 | +3.3 |
| 12 |  Buffalo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 79.0 | -1.3 |
| 13 |  Toledo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 70.0 | 78.5 | -8.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tennessee State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 104.7 | 76.0 | +28.7 |
| 2 |  Southeast Missouri State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.3 | 74.0 | +7.3 |
| 3 |  Lindenwood | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 88.5 | 70.5 | +18.0 |
| 4 |  Siu Edwardsville | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 77.8 | 68.5 | +9.2 |
| 5 |  Tennessee Tech | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 92.0 | 90.0 | +2.0 |
| 6 |  UT Martin | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.7 | 80.0 | +4.7 |
| 7 | Morehead State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.3 | 83.3 | -7.0 |
| 8 |  Southern Indiana | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 78.0 | 66.5 | +11.5 |
| 9 |  Western Illinois | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 74.5 | 73.2 | +1.2 |
| 10 |  Eastern Illinois | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 69.0 | 80.0 | -11.0 |
| 11 |  UALR | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 73.3 | 86.3 | -13.0 |
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