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Olimpia Milano vs Fenerbahce Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 19 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:30
Projected 80-84
Projected total 164.4
Scheduled
Position#19
Record1-10
FormLWLWL
Points / game81.3
Allowed / game89.3
Vs
37%
63%
■ MIL 37%■ FEN 63%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
3.7/10
Below normal
3.7/10
Below normal
Position#7
Record7-4
FormLWWWL
Points / game82.9
Allowed / game78.6
EuropeEuroleagueRound 13· Unipol Forum
European cup2026
Meetings · Olimpia Milano v Fenerbahce
19 Nov 2026
MIL v FEN
upcoming
18 Dec 2025
MIL72
FEN87
06 Mar 2025
MIL76
FEN100
22 Mar 2024
MIL77
FEN76
24 Nov 2022
MIL72
FEN82
03 Feb 2022
MIL60
FEN71
03 Mar 2021
MIL92
FEN100
28 Mar 2019
MIL90
FEN104
19 Oct 2017
MIL86
FEN92
24 Nov 2016
MIL70
FEN79
22 Jan 2015
MIL71
FEN82
20 Nov 2014
MIL74
FEN80
30 Jan 2014
MIL90
FEN85
29 Feb 2012
MIL85
FEN72
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Olimpia Milano will host Fenerbahce on 19 November 2026 in the EuroLeague, with the model designating Fenerbahce as the favourite and predicting a 63% chance of a win for the Turkish side versus 37% for the Italian club, who are 1-10 in the league with an average of 81.3 points scored and 89.3 allowed; their home record is 1-5, 85.0 points per game and 90.5 allowed, and they have won two of their last five games, including a 88-86 victory over Trento but a 83-86 loss to Zalgiris Kaunas, while Fenerbahce sits 7-4 overall, 82.9 points scored and 78.6 allowed, yet struggles on the road with a 1-4 record, 80.2 points per game and 89.0 allowed, and has won three of their last five, notably a 78-59 win over Bursaspor; the teams have met ten times, with Fenerbahce winning six and the most recent encounter on 20 March 2026 ending 79-75 in favour of the Turkish club. The projected score is 80-84, a total of 164.4 points, and the home team line of 5.5 gives a 56% probability of covering; the over/under line of 167.5 carries a 42% chance of the over, and there is a 5% likelihood of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Olimpia Milano win
37.5%fair 2.67
Best odds2.80
Implied34.7%
Edge+2.8pp
Fenerbahce win
62.5%fair 1.60
Best odds1.47
Implied65.3%
Edge-2.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:33 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Olimpia MilanoLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMilano
Date
Competition
Dubai
#9
L
97-101
97
101
-4
93avg 82
H15/10
Euroleague
Basket Napoli
#2
W
98-82
98
82
+16
93avg 82
A18/10
Lega A
Barcelona
#4
L
81-89
81
89
-8
76avg 82
H22/10
Euroleague
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
94-98 OT
94
98
-4
80avg 82
H25/10
Lega A
Panathinaikos
#1
L
75-80
75
80
-5
66avg 82
A27/10
Euroleague
Olympiacos
#2
L
78-84
78
84
-6
75avg 82
A30/10
Euroleague
Cantu
#16
W
95-82
95
82
+13
no box
A02/11
Lega A
Valencia
#3
L
73-84
73
84
-11
no box
H05/11
Euroleague
Trento
#11
W
88-86
88
86
+2
no box
H08/11
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#8
L
83-86
83
86
-3
no box
H12/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-29
26-27
19-27
29-18
18-25
23-13
25-23
32-21
21-23
19-21
24-27
17-18
22-20
30-17
15-22
14-22
19-18
18-22
24-20
14-20
19-25
25-19
17-25
17-15
23-27
28-20
21-17
23-18
15-24
22-16
22-11
14-33
26-28
30-20
19-22
13-16
25-18
16-27
11-18
31-23
173.4Avg total
86.2Scored
87.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)81.389.3170.5-8.09%
Season at home (6)85.090.5175.5-5.517%
Season away (5)76.887.8164.6-11.00%
Last 10 (10)86.287.2173.4-1.030%
Last 5 (5)83.484.4167.8-1.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)81.589.2170.8-7.80%
vs Similar (6)86.287.8174.0-1.750%
vs Weaker (16)88.679.8168.4+8.975%
This opponent (Fenerbahce) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
FenerbahceLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormFenerbahce
Date
Competition
Partizan
#11
W
74-65
74
65
+9
73avg 79
H15/10
Euroleague
Petkim Spor
#5
L
77-82
77
82
-5
67avg 79
H18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Olympiacos
#2
W
64-61
64
61
+3
51avg 79
A23/10
Euroleague
Karsiyaka
#10
W
97-72
97
72
+25
98avg 79
A25/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Valencia
#3
L
78-86
78
86
-8
70avg 79
A27/10
Euroleague
Real Madrid
#5
L
76-95
76
95
-19
64avg 79
A29/10
Euroleague
Tofas
#8
W
88-77
88
77
+11
85avg 79
H01/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Baskonia
#20
W
84-65
84
65
+19
no box
H05/11
Euroleague
Bursaspor
#16
W
78-59
78
59
+19
no box
A07/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Paris
#14
L
109-111 OT
109
111
-2
no box
A11/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-19
13-9
34-16
15-21
12-24
21-15
18-19
26-24
8-20
16-14
21-15
19-12
25-16
24-20
25-14
23-22
9-19
16-17
21-24
32-26
24-22
18-25
13-23
21-25
25-21
22-22
23-16
18-18
33-18
19-14
11-9
21-24
23-15
20-21
16-11
19-12
14-23
29-27
29-22
20-20
159.8Avg total
82.5Scored
77.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)82.978.6161.5+4.364%
Season at home (6)85.270.0155.2+15.2100%
Season away (5)80.289.0169.2-8.820%
Last 10 (10)82.577.3159.8+5.260%
Last 5 (5)87.081.4168.4+5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)68.587.0155.5-18.50%
vs Similar (16)81.578.9160.4+2.669%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)90.577.0167.5+13.583%
This opponent (Olimpia Milano) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1201%1252%1303%1355%1407%1459%15011%15512%16012%16511%1709%1757%1804%1853%1902%1951%2001%2050%210
1%1253%1357%14511%15512%1659%1754%1852%1951%205
Pythia expects about 164 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 167.5.
Over/Under 162.5
Over 162.5
53.7%
@ 1.46-8.5pp
Under 162.5
46.3%
@ 2.40+8.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.40
Over/Under 167.5 · main line
Over 167.5
41.6%
@ 1.94-8.1pp
Under 167.5
58.4%
@ 1.92+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.83
Over/Under 172.5
Over 172.5
30.4%
@ 2.40-7.4pp
Under 172.5
69.6%
@ 1.46+7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.46

📊 3. Team Totals

Olimpia Milano total 76.5
Over 76.5
64.3%
Under 76.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpia Milano total 80.5 · main line
Over 80.5
49.2%
@ 1.75-2.4pp
Under 80.5
50.8%
@ 1.86+2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Under
1xBet
1.86
Olimpia Milano total 84.5
Over 84.5
34.4%
Under 84.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahce total 82.5
Over 82.5
55.7%
Under 82.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahce total 86.5 · main line
Over 86.5
39.8%
@ 1.81-10.2pp
Under 86.5
60.2%
@ 1.81+10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Under
1xBet
1.81
Fenerbahce total 90.5
Over 90.5
25.6%
Under 90.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

3%5%8%10%0%-390%-361%-331%-302%-273%-244%-215%-187%-158%-1210%-910%-69%-36%+08%+37%+66%+94%+123%+152%+181%+211%+241%+27
0%-361%-303%-245%-188%-1210%-66%+07%+64%+122%+181%+24
Margin from Olimpia Milano's side (positive = Olimpia Milano win). Pythia's expected margin is -3.5; Olimpia Milano win by 1+ in 33% of simulations.
Spread Olimpia Milano +2.5
MIL +2.5
44.8%
@ 2.21+3.7pp
FEN -2.5
55.2%
@ 1.54-3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
MIL
1xBet
2.21
FEN
1xBet
1.54
Spread Olimpia Milano +5.5 · main line
MIL +5.5
56.0%
@ 1.93+6.0pp
FEN -5.5
44.0%
@ 1.93-6.0pp
Best 5 market prices
MIL
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.85
FEN
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.85
Spread Olimpia Milano +8.5
MIL +8.5
66.8%
@ 1.54+7.9pp
FEN -8.5
33.2%
@ 2.21-7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
MIL
1xBet
1.54
FEN
1xBet
2.21

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -2.6-2.6Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: +4.2+4.2Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +1.0+1.0
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -2.6-2.6Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: +4.2+4.2Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +1.0+1.0
Olimpia MilanoFenerbahce
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Olimpia MilanoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dubai
#9
L
49-56
49
56
-7
H15/10
Euroleague
Basket Napoli
#2
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A18/10
Lega A
Barcelona
#4
L
40-44
40
44
-4
H22/10
Euroleague
Virtus Bologna
#1
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H25/10
Lega A
Panathinaikos
#1
L
37-40
37
40
-3
A27/10
Euroleague
Olympiacos
#2
D
44-44
44
44
+0
A30/10
Euroleague
Cantu
#16
W
51-47
51
47
+4
A02/11
Lega A
Valencia
#3
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H05/11
Euroleague
Trento
#11
W
56-48
56
48
+8
H08/11
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#8
L
41-45
41
45
-4
H12/11
Euroleague
88.7Avg total
44.8Scored
43.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 83.5
Last 30 (30)44.642.587.1+2.247%60%
Last 30 at home (16)47.741.989.6+5.862%81%
Last 30 away (14)41.143.184.3-2.029%36%
Last 10 (10)44.843.988.7+0.940%70%
Last 5 (5)45.844.890.6+1.040%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)40.545.586.0-5.00%62%
vs Similar (6)43.242.085.2+1.250%50%
vs Weaker (16)47.241.188.4+6.169%62%
This opponent (Fenerbahce) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
FenerbahceLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Partizan
#11
L
25-28
25
28
-3
H15/10
Euroleague
Petkim Spor
#5
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Olympiacos
#2
L
24-34
24
34
-10
A23/10
Euroleague
Karsiyaka
#10
W
49-36
49
36
+13
A25/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Valencia
#3
L
25-36
25
36
-11
A27/10
Euroleague
Real Madrid
#5
L
42-47
42
47
-5
A29/10
Euroleague
Tofas
#8
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H01/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Baskonia
#20
W
52-32
52
32
+20
H05/11
Euroleague
Bursaspor
#16
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A07/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Paris
#14
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A11/11
Euroleague
76.4Avg total
38.3Scored
38.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 83.5
Last 30 (30)41.739.981.6+1.853%57%
Last 30 at home (14)40.937.978.8+3.164%43%
Last 30 away (16)42.441.884.1+0.644%69%
Last 10 (10)38.338.176.4+0.240%50%
Last 5 (5)45.441.687.0+3.860%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)33.040.073.0-7.00%50%
vs Similar (16)38.841.380.1-2.638%56%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)47.138.185.2+9.083%58%
This opponent (Olimpia Milano) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Olimpia Milano +2.5 · main line
MIL +2.5
53.7%
@ 1.94+6.0pp
FEN -2.5
46.3%
@ 1.77-6.0pp
1st half Over/Under 83.5 · main line
Over
45.6%
@ 1.85-4.4pp
Under
54.4%
@ 1.85+4.4pp
Olimpia Milano 1st half total 40.5 · main line
Over
49.7%
@ 1.81+0.3pp
Under
50.3%
@ 1.77-0.3pp
Fenerbahce 1st half total 43.5 · main line
Over
41.2%
@ 1.81-8.2pp
Under
58.8%
@ 1.77+8.2pp
1st half Spread Olimpia Milano +3.5
MIL +3.5
57.9%
@ 1.77+5.6pp
FEN -3.5
42.1%
@ 1.94-5.6pp
1st half Over/Under 81.5
Over
53.1%
@ 1.63-3.6pp
Under
46.9%
@ 2.13+3.6pp
1st half Spread Olimpia Milano +4.5
MIL +4.5
62.1%
@ 1.65+6.1pp
FEN -4.5
37.9%
@ 2.10-6.1pp
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
MIL
41.5%
@ 2.66+7.7pp
Draw
4.0%
@ 14.10-2.3pp
FEN
54.5%
@ 1.50-5.4pp

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Overtime
🔒 Pro
🔒 1 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Olimpia Milano +10.573.2%1.41
1xBet
1.41
----+9.0pp
Olimpia Milano +11.576.0%1.35
1xBet
1.35
----+8.8pp
Olimpia Milano +9.570.1%1.47
1xBet
1.47
----+8.6pp
🔒 Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Olimpia Milanotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Olimpia Milano: 86.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.7 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.6 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.019.3
56.8%
55.2%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.59.9
36.0%
35.7%29.7
🏀 Free throws22.718.6
81.9%
77.1%18.6
They take 61.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Fenerbahcetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Fenerbahce: 82.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.518.9
58.2%
55.2%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.79.5
33.1%
35.7%28.5
🏀 Free throws20.415.9
77.9%
77.1%15.9
They take 61.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Olimpia Milano
LWLWLLLLWL
Fenerbahce
LWWWLLWWLW
#19
League position
#7
-1.4
Net rating
+3.1
100.0
Offensive rating
97.9
101.4
Defensive rating
94.8
55.5%
Effective FG%
54.2%
55.5%
Opp. effective FG%
51.5%
16.5%
Turnover %
15.6%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.33
36.0%
3-point %
33.1%
66.8%
Assist %
62.7%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence100.0 · 97.9Defence101.4 · 94.8Shooting55.5% · 54.2%3-point %36.0% · 33.1%Ball care16.5% · 15.6%Free throws0.37 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)30% · 60%
■ Olimpia Milano   ■ Fenerbahce
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Olimpia Milano wins
6
Fenerbahce wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HZalgiris Kaunas83-86
08/11/26HTrento88-86
05/11/26HValencia73-84
02/11/26ACantu95-82
30/10/26AOlympiacos78-84
27/10/26APanathinaikos75-80
25/10/26HVirtus Bologna94-98 OT
22/10/26HBarcelona81-89
18/10/26ABasket Napoli98-82
15/10/26HDubai97-101
Fenerbahcelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AParis109-111 OT
07/11/26ABursaspor78-59
05/11/26HBaskonia84-65
01/11/26HTofas88-77
29/10/26AReal Madrid76-95
27/10/26AValencia78-86
25/10/26AKarsiyaka97-72
23/10/26AOlympiacos64-61
18/10/26HPetkim Spor77-82
15/10/26HPartizan74-65

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Olimpia Milano
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL9%
HomeLLLLL17%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %9%17%0%
Points / game81.385.076.8
Allowed / game89.390.587.8
Point differential-8.0-5.5-11.0
Avg total170.5175.5164.6
Over 167.564%83%40%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)33% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Fenerbahce
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL64%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %64%100%20%
Points / game82.985.280.2
Allowed / game78.670.089.0
Point differential+4.3+15.2-8.8
Avg total161.5155.2169.2
Over 167.536%33%40%
Win by 10+45%83%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %9%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Panathinaikos118373%86.478.5+7.9
2 Olympiacos118373%88.580.7+7.7
3 Valencia118373%96.488.9+7.5
4 Barcelona118373%89.687.4+2.3
5 Real Madrid117464%98.590.1+8.4
6 Crvena zvezda117464%83.377.7+5.5
7 Fenerbahce117464%82.978.6+4.3
8 Zalgiris Kaunas117464%85.682.4+3.3
9 Dubai117464%86.585.6+0.9
10 Hapoel Tel-Aviv116555%90.487.2+3.2
11 Partizan116555%79.577.7+1.7
12 Anadolu Efes115645%85.987.5-1.5
13 Besiktas115645%88.490.9-2.5
14 Paris115645%91.094.1-3.1
15 Lyon-Villeurbanne114736%88.593.2-4.6
16 Virtus Bologna114736%86.190.7-4.6
17 Maccabi Tel Aviv113827%84.392.1-7.8
18 Bayern113827%86.895.2-8.4
19 Olimpia Milano111109%81.389.3-8.0
20 Baskonia111109%79.991.9-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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