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Osaka vs Saga Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 18 Dec 2024
Tip-off: 10:05
Final 77-68
21-23 17-15 21-13 18-17
Position#13
Record11-10
FormLWWLL
Points / game81.9
Allowed / game80.7
Osaka 🏆
Japan
vs
Position#18
Record7-14
FormLLLLL
Points / game74.3
Allowed / game76.8
JapanB League· Osaka Prefectural Gymnasium
Other2024-25
Meetings · Osaka v Saga
24 Mar 2027
OSAK v SAGA
upcoming
18 Dec 2024
OSAK77
SAGA68
17 Jan 2024
OSAK69
SAGA91
03 Dec 2023
OSAK45
SAGA79
02 Dec 2023
OSAK79
SAGA84
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Osaka winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

OsakaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormOsaka
Date
Competition
Hiroshima D.
#15
L
91-93
91
93
-2
94avg 76
A06/11
B League
Sendai
#23
W
87-68
87
68
+19
80avg 76
H09/11
B League
Sendai
#23
L
88-96
88
96
-8
72avg 76
H10/11
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
82-77
82
77
+5
77avg 76
A30/11
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
74-71
74
71
+3
69avg 76
A01/12
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#11
L
66-71
66
71
-5
53avg 76
H07/12
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#11
W
76-70 OT
76
70
+6
75avg 76
H08/12
B League
Yokohama
#17
W
89-84
89
84
+5
85avg 76
A11/12
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
L
76-77
76
77
-1
63avg 76
A14/12
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
L
76-95
76
95
-19
67avg 76
A15/12
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-21
28-21
19-30
20-21
22-19
18-21
24-13
23-15
30-22
23-30
10-25
25-19
20-20
19-22
19-20
24-15
18-23
18-18
24-11
14-19
10-22
17-16
22-16
17-17
14-19
14-11
13-15
23-19
23-16
15-20
28-21
23-27
20-14
22-25
20-15
14-23
17-25
18-30
18-16
23-24
160.7Avg total
80.5Scored
80.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)81.980.7162.5+1.252%
Season at home (10)82.778.2160.9+4.560%
Season away (11)81.182.9164.0-1.845%
Last 10 (10)80.580.2160.7+0.350%
Last 5 (5)76.679.4156.0-2.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)79.385.0164.3-5.727%
vs Similar ◀ (13)83.580.5164.0+2.962%
vs Weaker (6)84.277.3161.5+6.883%
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Shiga
#24
W
83-69
83
69
+14
78avg 67
A06/11
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
72-84
72
84
-12
62avg 67
H11/11
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
67-73
67
73
-6
56avg 67
H12/11
B League
Nagasaki
#16
W
80-51
80
51
+29
79avg 67
H01/12
B League
Nagasaki
#16
L
78-93
78
93
-15
71avg 67
H02/12
B League
Gunma
#6
L
70-84
70
84
-14
58avg 67
A07/12
B League
Gunma
#6
L
74-86
74
86
-12
66avg 67
A08/12
B League
Shimane
#8
L
55-85
55
85
-30
40avg 67
A11/12
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
L
91-95
91
95
-4
87avg 67
H14/12
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
L
74-79
74
79
-5
61avg 67
H15/12
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-20
16-18
20-15
24-16
20-22
14-24
24-18
14-20
20-18
12-19
14-21
21-15
23-13
15-12
22-10
20-16
17-21
23-22
20-18
18-32
16-23
14-25
13-21
27-15
18-21
21-18
12-18
23-29
12-18
22-15
12-26
9-26
28-18
18-30
24-15
21-32
26-24
21-23
11-13
16-19
154.3Avg total
74.4Scored
79.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)74.376.8151.1-2.533%
Season at home (9)77.978.9156.8-1.022%
Season away (12)71.775.2146.9-3.642%
Last 10 (10)74.479.9154.3-5.520%
Last 5 (5)72.885.8158.6-13.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)68.579.2147.8-10.88%
vs Similar ◀ (13)78.576.5155.0+2.138%
vs Weaker (5)81.673.0154.6+8.660%
This opponent (Osaka) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: -0.3-0.3Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -2.7-2.7
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: -0.3-0.3Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -2.7-2.7
OsakaSaga
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
OsakaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hiroshima D.
#15
W
52-42
52
42
+10
A06/11
B League
Sendai
#23
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H09/11
B League
Sendai
#23
W
53-52
53
52
+1
H10/11
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A30/11
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A01/12
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#11
L
27-38
27
38
-11
H07/12
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#11
L
28-30
28
30
-2
H08/12
B League
Yokohama
#17
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A11/12
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A14/12
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
L
35-55
35
55
-20
A15/12
B League
80.5Avg total
39.0Scored
41.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.640.680.3-1.047%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.438.279.6+3.267%-
Last 30 away (15)37.943.180.9-5.227%-
Last 10 (10)39.041.580.5-2.540%-
Last 5 (5)34.039.673.6-5.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)38.741.880.5-3.145%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)39.638.678.2+1.062%-
vs Weaker (6)41.342.884.2-1.517%-
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Shiga
#24
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A06/11
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
34-46
34
46
-12
H11/11
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H12/11
B League
Nagasaki
#16
W
38-25
38
25
+13
H01/12
B League
Nagasaki
#16
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H02/12
B League
Gunma
#6
L
30-48
30
48
-18
A07/12
B League
Gunma
#6
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A08/12
B League
Shimane
#8
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A11/12
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
L
46-48
46
48
-2
H14/12
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
D
47-47
47
47
+0
H15/12
B League
78.3Avg total
37.9Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.239.276.4-2.037%-
Last 30 at home (13)37.239.977.2-2.723%-
Last 30 away (17)37.138.675.8-1.547%-
Last 10 (10)37.940.478.3-2.530%-
Last 5 (5)39.243.082.2-3.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)33.739.873.4-6.125%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)39.038.577.5+0.531%-
vs Weaker (5)40.839.680.4+1.280%-
This opponent (Osaka) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Osakatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Osaka: 79.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.8 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.121.4
53.4%
51.2%42.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.37.1
28.1%
33.4%21.3
🏀 Free throws22.515.8
70.2%
72.7%15.8
They take 65.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 73.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.7 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.3 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.519.8
50.1%
51.2%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.26.9
29.7%
33.4%20.7
🏀 Free throws18.613.3
71.5%
72.7%13.3
They take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Dec 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Osaka
LLWWLWWLWL
Saga
LLLLLLWLLW
#13
League position
#18
+0.1
Net rating
-7.0
106.9
Offensive rating
101.5
106.8
Defensive rating
108.5
49.0%
Effective FG%
48.1%
53.1%
Opp. effective FG%
51.7%
18.2%
Turnover %
15.9%
35.8%
Off. rebound %
25.4%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.30
28.1%
3-point %
29.7%
62.8%
Assist %
63.7%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence106.9 · 101.5Defence106.8 · 108.5Shooting49.0% · 48.1%3-point %28.1% · 29.7%Ball care18.2% · 15.9%Off. rebounds35.8% · 25.4%Free throws0.34 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)50% · 20%
■ Osaka   ■ Saga
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Osaka wins
4
Saga wins
DateGameScore
10/04/24Saga v Osaka86-74 OT
17/01/24Osaka v Saga69-91
03/12/23Osaka v Saga45-79
02/12/23Osaka v Saga79-84
Osakalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/12/24AUtsunomiya Brex76-95
14/12/24AUtsunomiya Brex76-77
11/12/24AYokohama89-84
08/12/24HSun Rockers Shibuya76-70 OT
07/12/24HSun Rockers Shibuya66-71
01/12/24AIbaraki Robots74-71
30/11/24AIbaraki Robots82-77
10/11/24HSendai88-96
09/11/24HSendai87-68
06/11/24AHiroshima D.91-93
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/12/24HHiroshima D.74-79
14/12/24HHiroshima D.91-95
11/12/24AShimane55-85
08/12/24AGunma74-86
07/12/24AGunma70-84
02/12/24HNagasaki78-93
01/12/24HNagasaki80-51
12/11/24HRyukyu67-73
11/11/24HRyukyu72-84
06/11/24AShiga83-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Osaka
B League 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL52%
HomeLWLLW60%
AwayWWWLL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211011
Win %52%60%45%
Points / game81.982.781.1
Allowed / game80.778.282.9
Point differential+1.2+4.5-1.8
Avg total162.5160.9164.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%40%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)0% (1)50% (6)
Overtime %5%10%0%
Saga
B League 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL33%
HomeLWLLL22%
AwayLWLLL42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games21912
Win %33%22%42%
Points / game74.377.971.7
Allowed / game76.878.975.2
Point differential-2.5-1.0-3.6
Avg total151.1156.8146.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%22%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (5)0% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alvark2118386%79.969.9+10.0
2 NeoPhoenix2117481%91.579.1+12.4
3 Utsunomiya Brex2117481%83.074.5+8.5
4 Chiba2116576%82.075.1+6.9
5 Shimane2115671%81.573.0+8.4
6 Ryukyu2115671%83.876.4+7.4
7 Gunma2114767%79.471.2+8.2
8 SeaHorses Mikawa2114767%80.375.1+5.2
9 Sun Rockers Shibuya2113862%76.571.4+5.1
10 Akita2112957%72.272.1+0.1
11 Osaka21111052%81.980.7+1.2
12 Kyoto21101148%80.679.8+0.9
13 Diamond Dolphins21101148%81.882.8-1.0
14 Nagasaki2191243%71.875.0-3.2
15 Hiroshima D.2191243%77.282.4-5.2
16 Hokkaido2181338%73.779.4-5.7
17 Nagoya Fighting Eagles2181338%74.881.5-6.7
18 Saga2171433%74.376.8-2.5
19 Ibaraki Robots2171433%75.181.1-6.0
20 Yokohama2171433%74.680.7-6.1
21 Koshigaya Alphas2161529%77.082.0-5.0
22 Sendai2141719%72.480.7-8.3
23 Brave Thunders2141719%75.086.1-11.1
24 Shiga211205%73.486.7-13.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Osaka2117211877
Saga2315131768
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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