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Saga vs Nagasaki Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 02 Dec 2024
Tip-off: 10:05
Final 78-93
17-21 23-22 20-18 18-32
Position#18
Record7-8
FormLWLLW
Points / game74.6
Allowed / game72.7
vs
Position#16
Record6-9
FormLLLLL
Points / game68.9
Allowed / game72.4
JapanB League· Saga Arena
Other2024-25
Meetings · Saga v Nagasaki
21 Oct 2026
SAGA66
NAGA84
05 Mar 2025
SAGA86
NAGA92
02 Dec 2024
SAGA78
NAGA93
01 Dec 2024
SAGA80
NAGA51
14 Apr 2024
SAGA73
NAGA80
13 Apr 2024
SAGA61
NAGA63
06 Dec 2023
SAGA81
NAGA91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nagasaki winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Akita
#14
L
72-74
72
74
-2
61avg 68
A20/10
B League
Chiba
#5
L
74-79
74
79
-5
60avg 68
H23/10
B League
Alvark
#4
L
74-79
74
79
-5
71avg 68
A26/10
B League
Alvark
#4
L
66-79
66
79
-13
61avg 68
A27/10
B League
Brave Thunders
#21
W
89-67
89
67
+22
90avg 68
H03/11
B League
Brave Thunders
#21
L
76-89
76
89
-13
76avg 68
H04/11
B League
Shiga
#24
W
83-69
83
69
+14
78avg 68
A06/11
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
72-84
72
84
-12
62avg 68
H11/11
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
67-73
67
73
-6
56avg 68
H12/11
B League
Nagasaki
#16
W
80-51
80
51
+29
79avg 68
H01/12
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-25
17-16
14-18
25-15
18-18
16-25
23-17
17-19
21-27
15-11
17-21
21-20
10-24
18-22
22-21
16-12
21-17
22-13
25-18
21-19
16-24
21-23
20-16
19-26
23-20
16-18
20-15
24-16
20-22
14-24
24-18
14-20
20-18
12-19
14-21
21-15
23-13
15-12
22-10
20-16
149.7Avg total
75.3Scored
74.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)74.672.7147.3+1.947%
Season at home (6)76.373.8150.2+2.533%
Season away (9)73.472.0145.4+1.456%
Last 10 (10)75.374.4149.7+0.930%
Last 5 (5)75.673.2148.8+2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)70.679.3149.9-8.69%
vs Similar ◀ (11)76.771.9148.6+4.855%
vs Weaker (8)79.970.1150.0+9.875%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNagasaki
Date
Competition
Gunma
#6
L
72-82
72
82
-10
67avg 68
A20/10
B League
Osaka
#13
W
81-79
81
79
+2
74avg 68
H23/10
B League
Chiba
#5
L
50-82
50
82
-32
34avg 68
H26/10
B League
Chiba
#5
L
75-79
75
79
-4
66avg 68
H27/10
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#9
W
87-68
87
68
+19
91avg 68
H02/11
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#9
L
74-83
74
83
-9
67avg 68
H03/11
B League
Koshigaya Alphas
#20
L
67-80
67
80
-13
54avg 68
A06/11
B League
Akita
#14
L
68-71
68
71
-3
51avg 68
H09/11
B League
Akita
#14
L
54-55
54
55
-1
44avg 68
H10/11
B League
Saga
#18
L
51-80
51
80
-29
37avg 68
A01/12
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-25
23-19
19-15
17-23
14-15
27-15
20-26
20-23
13-25
15-19
11-21
11-17
15-22
12-21
27-24
21-12
30-18
17-17
25-23
15-10
21-23
18-23
16-17
19-20
19-19
19-23
9-16
20-22
20-12
16-25
20-14
12-20
22-21
9-8
13-13
10-13
13-23
12-15
10-22
16-20
143.8Avg total
67.9Scored
75.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)68.972.4141.3-3.540%
Season at home (9)68.771.4140.1-2.833%
Season away (6)69.273.8143.0-4.750%
Last 10 (10)67.975.9143.8-8.020%
Last 5 (5)62.873.8136.6-11.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)73.977.1151.1-3.243%
vs Similar ◀ (11)70.971.0141.9-0.155%
vs Weaker (5)87.280.4167.6+6.860%
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -2.0-2.0Q1: -2.3-2.3Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: +2.6+2.6Q3: -2.1-2.1Q4Q4: +2.0+2.0Q4: -1.9-1.9
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -2.0-2.0Q1: -2.3-2.3Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: +2.6+2.6Q3: -2.1-2.1Q4Q4: +2.0+2.0Q4: -1.9-1.9
SagaNagasaki
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akita
#14
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A20/10
B League
Chiba
#5
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H23/10
B League
Alvark
#4
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A26/10
B League
Alvark
#4
L
28-46
28
46
-18
A27/10
B League
Brave Thunders
#21
W
43-30
43
30
+13
H03/11
B League
Brave Thunders
#21
L
37-47
37
47
-10
H04/11
B League
Shiga
#24
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A06/11
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
34-46
34
46
-12
H11/11
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H12/11
B League
Nagasaki
#16
W
38-25
38
25
+13
H01/12
B League
74.5Avg total
35.4Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.037.674.7-0.647%-
Last 30 at home (13)35.836.572.3-0.846%-
Last 30 away (17)38.038.576.5-0.547%-
Last 10 (10)35.439.174.5-3.730%-
Last 5 (5)36.038.674.6-2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)35.140.675.7-5.518%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)37.035.572.5+1.545%-
vs Weaker (8)39.836.576.2+3.288%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Gunma
#6
L
36-44
36
44
-8
A20/10
B League
Osaka
#13
W
41-30
41
30
+11
H23/10
B League
Chiba
#5
L
28-44
28
44
-16
H26/10
B League
Chiba
#5
L
27-43
27
43
-16
H27/10
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#9
W
47-35
47
35
+12
H02/11
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#9
L
39-46
39
46
-7
H03/11
B League
Koshigaya Alphas
#20
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A06/11
B League
Akita
#14
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H09/11
B League
Akita
#14
W
31-29
31
29
+2
H10/11
B League
Saga
#18
L
25-38
25
38
-13
A01/12
B League
73.6Avg total
34.8Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.639.076.6-1.440%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.937.873.7-1.940%-
Last 30 away (15)39.340.379.6-0.940%-
Last 10 (10)34.838.873.6-4.030%-
Last 5 (5)33.838.472.2-4.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)35.942.178.0-6.121%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)37.737.174.8+0.645%-
vs Weaker (5)42.034.876.8+7.280%-
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 74.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.3 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.618.1
50.8%
51.2%36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.38.4
33.2%
33.4%25.2
🏀 Free throws19.013.3
70.0%
72.7%13.3
They take 60.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 67.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.8 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.5 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.916.9
49.9%
51.2%33.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.68.0
30.1%
33.4%24.0
🏀 Free throws12.49.5
76.6%
72.7%9.5
They take 60.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 02 Dec 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Saga
WLLWLWLLLL
Nagasaki
LLLLLWLLWL
#18
League position
#16
+2.1
Net rating
-10.5
103.6
Offensive rating
95.4
101.5
Defensive rating
105.9
50.4%
Effective FG%
47.8%
48.8%
Opp. effective FG%
48.0%
16.7%
Turnover %
21.6%
24.7%
Off. rebound %
29.7%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.20
33.2%
3-point %
30.1%
70.6%
Assist %
54.2%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence103.6 · 95.4Defence101.5 · 105.9Shooting50.4% · 47.8%3-point %33.2% · 30.1%Ball care16.7% · 21.6%Off. rebounds24.7% · 29.7%Free throws0.31 · 0.20Form (last 10/10)30% · 20%
■ Saga   ■ Nagasaki
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Saga wins
3
Nagasaki wins
DateGameScore
01/12/24Saga v Nagasaki80-51
14/04/24Saga v Nagasaki73-80
13/04/24Saga v Nagasaki61-63
20/03/24Nagasaki v Saga71-80
06/12/23Saga v Nagasaki81-91
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/12/24HNagasaki80-51
12/11/24HRyukyu67-73
11/11/24HRyukyu72-84
06/11/24AShiga83-69
04/11/24HBrave Thunders76-89
03/11/24HBrave Thunders89-67
27/10/24AAlvark66-79
26/10/24AAlvark74-79
23/10/24HChiba74-79
20/10/24AAkita72-74
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/12/24ASaga51-80
10/11/24HAkita54-55
09/11/24HAkita68-71
06/11/24AKoshigaya Alphas67-80
03/11/24HDiamond Dolphins74-83
02/11/24HDiamond Dolphins87-68
27/10/24HChiba75-79
26/10/24HChiba50-82
23/10/24HOsaka81-79
20/10/24AGunma72-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Saga
B League 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW47%
HomeWLLLW33%
AwayWLLLW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1569
Win %47%33%56%
Points / game74.676.373.4
Allowed / game72.773.872.0
Point differential+1.9+2.5+1.4
Avg total147.3150.2145.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%33%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Nagasaki
B League 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL40%
HomeLWLLL33%
AwayWWLLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1596
Win %40%33%50%
Points / game68.968.769.2
Allowed / game72.471.473.8
Point differential-3.5-2.8-4.7
Avg total141.3140.1143.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+7%11%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)20% (5)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Chiba1614288%83.872.8+11.1
2 Alvark1614288%79.969.9+10.0
3 NeoPhoenix1613381%92.778.6+14.1
4 Utsunomiya Brex1613381%82.275.1+7.1
5 Shimane1612475%82.873.5+9.2
6 Ryukyu1611569%85.278.3+6.9
7 SeaHorses Mikawa1611569%79.173.8+5.4
8 Gunma1610662%79.972.1+7.8
9 Sun Rockers Shibuya1610662%77.270.6+6.6
10 Osaka169756%83.581.1+2.4
11 Akita169756%74.174.3-0.2
12 Diamond Dolphins168850%81.982.1-0.2
13 Saga157847%74.672.7+1.9
14 Kyoto167944%79.179.8-0.6
15 Nagasaki156940%68.972.4-3.5
16 Yokohama1661038%73.877.8-4.0
17 Hiroshima D.1651131%74.882.2-7.4
18 Hokkaido1651131%72.880.9-8.2
19 Nagoya Fighting Eagles1651131%72.882.1-9.3
20 Sendai1641225%73.279.8-6.5
21 Koshigaya Alphas1641225%73.181.8-8.6
22 Brave Thunders1641225%74.784.3-9.6
23 Ibaraki Robots1631319%74.085.0-11.0
24 Shiga161156%72.685.9-13.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Saga1723201878
Nagasaki2122183293
← all games of the day
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