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Palencia vs Estela Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 10 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 19:30
Scheduled
Position#4
Record4-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game83.4
Allowed / game75.6
vs
Position#5
Record4-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game84.6
Allowed / game78.2
SpainPrimera FEBRound 24
Other2026-27
Meetings · Palencia v Estela
10 Mar 2027
PAL v ESTE
upcoming
08 May 2026
PAL100
ESTE70
21 Mar 2025
PAL85
ESTE77
24 Mar 2023
PAL94
ESTE72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Palencia win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Estela win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PalenciaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fuenlabrada
#6
W
83-79
83
79
+4
H17/05
Primera FEB
Fuenlabrada
#6
L
81-88
81
88
-7
A22/05
Primera FEB
Fuenlabrada
#6
L
72-78
72
78
-6
A24/05
Primera FEB
Fuenlabrada
#6
W
76-51
76
51
+25
H29/05
Primera FEB
Leyma Coruna
#2
L
81-92
81
92
-11
A06/06
Primera FEB
Albacete
#8
W
95-69
95
69
+26
A26/09
Primera FEB
Cordoba
#12
W
70-67
70
67
+3
H02/10
Primera FEB
Hestia Menorca
#18
W
91-76
91
76
+15
H09/10
Primera FEB
Estudiantes
#2
L
77-86
77
86
-9
A18/10
Primera FEB
Ourense
#10
W
84-80
84
80
+4
H24/10
Primera FEB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-23
29-22
11-17
27-17
14-18
15-24
22-27
30-19
16-13
22-21
22-22
12-22
26-9
15-12
22-12
13-18
16-20
24-18
21-28
20-26
25-20
27-14
23-23
20-12
14-12
19-19
16-15
21-21
17-19
27-18
14-17
33-22
22-21
26-14
12-27
17-24
13-25
22-20
25-16
24-19
157.6Avg total
81.0Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)83.475.6159.0+7.880%
Season at home (3)81.774.3156.0+7.3100%
Season away (2)86.077.5163.5+8.550%
Last 10 (10)81.076.6157.6+4.460%
Last 5 (5)83.475.6159.0+7.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)71.784.7156.3-13.00%
vs Similar ◀ (2)90.089.5179.5+0.550%
vs Weaker (25)84.470.4154.8+14.092%
This opponent (Estela) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EstelaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alicante
#10
L
74-82
74
82
-8
H17/04
Primera FEB
Fuenlabrada
#6
L
80-89
80
89
-9
H22/04
Primera FEB
Zamora
#9
W
89-86
89
86
+3
A26/04
Primera FEB
Obradoiro CAB
#1
L
65-95
65
95
-30
H02/05
Primera FEB
Palencia
#3
L
70-100
70
100
-30
A08/05
Primera FEB
Hestia Menorca
#18
W
69-68
69
68
+1
H26/09
Primera FEB
Fibwi Palma
#15
W
88-76
88
76
+12
A04/10
Primera FEB
Ourense
#10
W
101-86
101
86
+15
A10/10
Primera FEB
Fuenlabrada
#13
W
84-79
84
79
+5
H17/10
Primera FEB
Albacete
#8
L
81-82
81
82
-1
A25/10
Primera FEB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-23
17-18
19-20
21-21
23-16
23-28
16-21
18-24
17-22
37-22
19-17
16-25
21-28
13-25
22-19
9-23
14-26
16-28
23-25
17-21
18-20
20-17
14-17
17-14
17-24
24-15
24-15
23-22
21-28
31-13
27-20
22-25
22-15
22-23
23-24
17-17
23-20
19-23
19-19
20-20
164.4Avg total
80.1Scored
84.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)84.678.2162.8+6.480%
Season at home (2)76.573.5150.0+3.0100%
Season away (3)90.081.3171.3+8.767%
Last 10 (10)80.184.3164.4-4.250%
Last 5 (5)84.678.2162.8+6.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)78.288.2166.5-10.029%
vs Similar ◀ (8)76.575.5152.0+1.050%
vs Weaker (5)84.678.2162.8+6.480%
This opponent (Palencia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -2.9-2.9Q2Q2: +4.4+4.4Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: -1.6-1.6Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: -3.2-3.2
PalenciaEstela
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PalenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fuenlabrada
#6
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H17/05
Primera FEB
Fuenlabrada
#6
L
29-42
29
42
-13
A22/05
Primera FEB
Fuenlabrada
#6
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A24/05
Primera FEB
Fuenlabrada
#6
W
41-21
41
21
+20
H29/05
Primera FEB
Leyma Coruna
#2
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A06/06
Primera FEB
Albacete
#8
W
52-34
52
34
+18
A26/09
Primera FEB
Cordoba
#12
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H02/10
Primera FEB
Hestia Menorca
#18
W
44-37
44
37
+7
H09/10
Primera FEB
Estudiantes
#2
W
48-35
48
35
+13
A18/10
Primera FEB
Ourense
#10
L
35-45
35
45
-10
H24/10
Primera FEB
76.7Avg total
40.5Scored
36.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.035.477.3+6.683%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.935.979.8+8.181%-
Last 30 away (14)39.734.874.5+4.986%-
Last 10 (10)40.536.276.7+4.370%-
Last 5 (5)42.436.478.8+6.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)40.039.379.3+0.767%-
vs Similar ◀ (2)43.537.080.5+6.5100%-
vs Weaker (25)42.134.876.8+7.384%-
This opponent (Estela) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EstelaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alicante
#10
L
34-41
34
41
-7
H17/04
Primera FEB
Fuenlabrada
#6
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H22/04
Primera FEB
Zamora
#9
W
54-44
54
44
+10
A26/04
Primera FEB
Obradoiro CAB
#1
L
34-53
34
53
-19
H02/05
Primera FEB
Palencia
#3
L
30-54
30
54
-24
A08/05
Primera FEB
Hestia Menorca
#18
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H26/09
Primera FEB
Fibwi Palma
#15
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A04/10
Primera FEB
Ourense
#10
W
52-41
52
41
+11
A10/10
Primera FEB
Fuenlabrada
#13
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H17/10
Primera FEB
Albacete
#8
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A25/10
Primera FEB
84.9Avg total
41.5Scored
43.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.442.382.6-1.943%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.440.981.3-0.546%-
Last 30 away (17)40.443.383.6-2.941%-
Last 10 (10)41.543.484.9-1.960%-
Last 5 (5)43.439.683.0+3.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)39.445.184.4-5.729%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)40.638.078.6+2.650%-
vs Weaker (5)43.439.683.0+3.880%-
This opponent (Palencia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Palenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Palencia: 81.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.2 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.2 points a game
48%
33%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.615.6
47.9%
52.8%31.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.810.2
35.4%
32.9%30.6
🏀 Free throws25.319.2
75.9%
74.4%19.2
They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Estelatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Estela: 80.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.0 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.2 points a game
48%
33%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.417.5
55.7%
52.8%35.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.510.3
33.8%
32.9%30.9
🏀 Free throws19.214.2
74.0%
74.4%14.2
They take 61.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Palencia
WLWWWLWLLW
Estela
LWWWWLLWLL
#4
League position
#5
+6.0
Net rating
-5.8
110.8
Offensive rating
111.4
104.8
Defensive rating
117.2
50.3%
Effective FG%
53.2%
48.0%
Opp. effective FG%
51.9%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.41
Free-throw rate
0.31
35.4%
3-point %
33.8%
58.9%
Assist %
57.2%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence110.8 · 111.4Defence104.8 · 117.2Shooting50.3% · 53.2%3-point %35.4% · 33.8%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.41 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Palencia   ■ Estela
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Palencia wins
0
Estela wins
DateGameScore
08/05/26Palencia v Estela100-70
11/10/25Estela v Palencia58-107
21/03/25Palencia v Estela85-77
18/01/25Estela v Palencia59-83
24/03/23Palencia v Estela94-72
26/11/22Estela v Palencia67-77
Palencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/10/26HOurense84-80
18/10/26AEstudiantes77-86
09/10/26HHestia Menorca91-76
02/10/26HCordoba70-67
26/09/26AAlbacete95-69
06/06/26ALeyma Coruna81-92
29/05/26HFuenlabrada76-51
24/05/26AFuenlabrada72-78
22/05/26AFuenlabrada81-88
17/05/26HFuenlabrada83-79
Estelalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/10/26AAlbacete81-82
17/10/26HFuenlabrada84-79
10/10/26AOurense101-86
04/10/26AFibwi Palma88-76
26/09/26HHestia Menorca69-68
08/05/26APalencia70-100
02/05/26HObradoiro CAB65-95
26/04/26AZamora89-86
22/04/26HFuenlabrada80-89
17/04/26HAlicante74-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Palencia
Primera FEB 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW80%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %80%100%50%
Points / game83.481.786.0
Allowed / game75.674.377.5
Point differential+7.8+7.3+8.5
Avg total159.0156.0163.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Estela
Primera FEB 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL80%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %80%100%67%
Points / game84.676.590.0
Allowed / game78.273.581.3
Point differential+6.4+3.0+8.7
Avg total162.8150.0171.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%0%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alicante660100%89.874.0+15.8
2 Estudiantes550100%88.873.8+15.0
3 Gran Canaria54180%91.472.2+19.2
4 Palencia54180%83.475.6+7.8
5 Estela54180%84.678.2+6.4
6 Palmer Basket53260%87.885.8+2.0
7 Granada53260%81.881.4+0.4
8 Albacete53260%82.287.2-5.0
9 Oviedo53260%83.489.6-6.2
10 Ourense52340%85.285.0+0.2
11 Caja 8752340%77.078.2-1.2
12 Cordoba52340%71.677.6-6.0
13 Fuenlabrada51420%78.682.4-3.8
14 Zamora51420%73.079.6-6.6
15 Fibwi Palma51420%81.288.6-7.4
16 Gipuzkoa51420%80.094.4-14.4
17 Tizona Burgos61517%87.595.0-7.5
18 Hestia Menorca5050%70.280.6-10.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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