Penn State hosts the Mercyhurst Lakers on 12 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Penn State at 80% because the Nittany Lions have a 2-2 record, 79.0 points per game and 80.2 points allowed, while Mercyhurst sits 1-2, 62.7 points per game and 70.3 allowed; Penn State's home record is 2-1 with 90.0 points scored and 77.3 allowed, and they have won two of their last five games, including a 97-93 victory over Chattanooga Mocs, whereas Mercyhurst's road record is 0-2, 49.5 points per game and 80.5 allowed, with two wins in their last five including a 89-50 win over Penn State-Shenango. The teams have met once before, with the last meeting recorded as a 79-70 projected score. Pythia projects a 79-70 outcome, a 148.6 total, and gives Penn State an 80% win probability, Mercyhurst 20%; the home line is -20.5 with a 17% chance of covering, and the total line is 147.5 with a 52% over probability, while the chance of overtime is 4%.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Penn State winWon
80.1%fair 1.25
Best odds1.03
Implied93.6%
Edge-13.5pp
Mercyhurst Lakers winLost
19.9%fair 5.03
Best odds19.00
Implied6.4%
Edge+13.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:02 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Penn State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 142.5Actual: Under 142.5
Over 142.5
64.0%
@ 1.50+0.1pp
Under 142.5
36.0%
@ 2.75-0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 147.5 · main lineActual: Under 147.5
Over 147.5
52.1%
@ 1.90+2.1pp
Under 147.5
47.9%
@ 2.00-2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Be
1.98
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Under 152.5
Over 152.5
40.0%
@ 2.45+1.9pp
Under 152.5
60.0%
@ 1.52-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Penn State total 80Actual: Penn State under 80
Over 80
46.2%
Under 80
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penn State total 84 · main lineActual: Penn State under 84
Over 84
30.4%
@ 1.87-19.3pp
Under 84
69.6%
@ 1.85+19.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Penn State total 88Actual: Penn State under 88
Over 88
17.7%
Under 88
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mercyhurst Lakers total 60Actual: Mercyhurst Lakers under 60
Over 60
83.1%
Under 60
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mercyhurst Lakers total 64 · main lineActual: Mercyhurst Lakers under 64
Over 64
70.8%
@ 1.85+20.8pp
Under 64
29.2%
@ 1.85-20.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Mercyhurst Lakers total 68Actual: Mercyhurst Lakers under 68
Over 68
55.5%
Under 68
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Penn State -23.5Actual: Mercyhurst Lakers +23.5
PENN -23.5
11.3%
@ 2.32-29.1pp
MERC +23.5
88.7%
@ 1.57+29.1pp
Best 5 market prices
PENN
Betano
2.32
Bet365
2.25
MERC
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.53
Spread Penn State -20.5 · main lineActual: Mercyhurst Lakers +20.5
PENN -20.5
16.8%
@ 1.88-34.4pp
MERC +20.5
83.2%
@ 2.00+34.4pp
Best 5 market prices
PENN
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
SBO
1.81
MERC
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
Spread Penn State -17.5Actual: Mercyhurst Lakers +17.5
PENN -17.5
24.0%
@ 1.55-35.9pp
MERC +17.5
76.0%
@ 2.35+35.9pp
Best 5 market prices
PENN
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
MERC
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Penn StateMercyhurst Lakers
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Penn State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Penn State win
PENN win
no forecast
@ 1.15
MERC win
no forecast
@ 5.50
2nd half Spread Penn State -9.5 · main lineActual: Penn State -9.5
PENN -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
MERC +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Over/Under 76.5 · main lineActual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Penn State (regulation)
PENN
no forecast
@ 1.17
Draw
no forecast
@ 24.00
MERC
no forecast
@ 5.40
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Mercyhurst Lakers +16
72.4%
2.70
Bet365
2.70
-
-
-
-
+38.1pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +17
75.3%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+37.8pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +19.5
81.0%
2.02
Pinnacle
2.17
Bet365
2.05
Betano
1.95
SBO
1.93
-
+36.8pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +18
78.0%
2.27
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
+36.7pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +20
82.8%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.95
SBO
1.88
-
+36.3pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +16.5
73.2%
2.50
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.45
-
-
-
+36.2pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +19
80.5%
2.12
Pinnacle
2.14
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+36.0pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +15.5
70.2%
2.70
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.65
-
-
-
+35.9pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +17.5
76.0%
2.31
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
-
-
-
+35.9pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +18.5
78.6%
2.15
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.10
-
-
+35.4pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +20.5
83.2%
1.93
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.89
+34.4pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +21
84.9%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.86
SBO
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
-
+33.5pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +22
86.8%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.71
-
-
-
+32.0pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +21.5
85.2%
1.79
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.81
Pinnacle
1.79
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.77
+31.6pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +23
88.5%
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
-
+30.6pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +22.5
87.1%
1.64
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
+30.6pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +23.5
88.7%
1.55
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+29.1pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +24
90.0%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+28.8pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +24.5
90.2%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+27.5pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers +25
91.4%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+27.2pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers over 63
74.2%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Lost
Penn State under 85.5
74.0%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
+23.1pp
Won
Penn State under 85
73.1%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Won
Penn State under 84.5
70.7%
1.90
Pinnacle
1.98
BetVictor
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.83
+22.9pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers over 62.5
75.1%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.72
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 64
70.8%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 61.5
78.1%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 63.5
71.8%
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.83
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Bet365
1.80
+19.3pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 59.5
83.5%
1.41
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 60.5
80.9%
1.47
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
-
-
+18.4pp
Lost
Penn State under 87.5
80.1%
1.48
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
Penn State under 86.5
77.2%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Won
Penn State under 88.5
82.7%
1.39
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.36
-
-
+16.2pp
Won
Penn State under 89.5
85.2%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Won
Penn State under 91.5
89.3%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers over 58.5
85.9%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Lost
Penn State under 90.5
87.4%
1.27
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers over 57.5
88.0%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 56.5
89.8%
1.20
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
Penn State under 93.5
92.5%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Penn State under 92.5
91.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Penn State under 94.5
93.8%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers over 55.5
91.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers over 54.5
92.9%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers over 53.5
94.2%
1.09
1xBet
1.11
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Penn State under 96.5
95.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Penn State under 98.5
97.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Penn State under 100.5
98.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers over 52.5
95.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers over 51.5
96.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Over 122.5
94.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Under 174.5
94.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Over 127.5
90.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Over 124.5
93.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Under 169.5
89.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Under 172.5
92.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Over 140
70.1%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Lost
Under 159.5
75.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Over 137.5
74.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Lost
Under 164.5
83.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Over 129.5
87.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Lost
Over 132.5
83.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Lost
Under 167.5
87.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Under 162.5
80.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Under 157.5
71.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Over 134.5
80.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Lost
Over 139.5
70.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers under 80.5
85.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Penn State (regulation)
77.9%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers under 78.5
81.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Won
Penn State over 71.5
77.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-10.7pp
Won
Penn State over 72.5
74.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-13.0pp
Lost
Penn State win
80.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
WilliamHill
1.02
Marathon Bet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-13.5pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers under 76.5
75.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-13.8pp
Won
Penn State over 73.5
71.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-13.8pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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