Pistoia hosts Caserta on 11 November 2026 in Serie A2, with the Pythia model favouring Pistoia at 66% versus 34% for Caserta, projecting an 81-76 win and a total of 156.8 points; the home line is -8.5 with a 37% chance of covering, while the over line of 155.5 carries a 52% probability and a 5% chance of overtime. Pistoia is 4-4 overall, scoring 77.4 and allowing 69.5 per game, and sits ninth in the league, though its three home games have been 1-2 with 76.7 points scored and 73.3 allowed; the last five games were 4-1, highlighted by an 86-71 away win over Montecatini, a 64-66 home loss to Fortitudo Bologna, and a 75-72 away win over JuVi Cremona. Caserta is 2-5 overall, averaging 79.3 points and conceding 83.3, positioned fourteenth, and its three road outings have been 0-3 with 75.0 points scored and 86.3 allowed; the last five games were 2-3, including a 77-70 home win over Mestre, a 76-82 home loss to Avellino Basket, and a 75-95 away loss to Sassari. In their eight previous meetings Pistoia has won six times, most recently defeating Caserta 77-64 on 13 February 2017.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 77.4 | 69.5 | 146.9 | +7.9 | 50% |
| Season at home (3) | 76.7 | 73.3 | 150.0 | +3.3 | 33% |
| Season away (5) | 77.8 | 67.2 | 145.0 | +10.6 | 60% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.0 | 72.2 | 150.2 | +5.8 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.0 | 66.2 | 148.2 | +15.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 74.8 | 84.2 | 158.9 | -9.4 | 17% |
| vs Similar (12) | 78.3 | 82.7 | 161.0 | -4.3 | 33% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 82.2 | 71.2 | 153.3 | +11.0 | 67% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 79.3 | 83.3 | 162.6 | -4.0 | 29% |
| Season at home (4) | 82.5 | 81.0 | 163.5 | +1.5 | 50% |
| Season away (3) | 75.0 | 86.3 | 161.3 | -11.3 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.3 | 81.4 | 160.7 | -2.1 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 80.2 | 83.8 | 164.0 | -3.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (15) | 76.1 | 83.3 | 159.3 | -7.2 | 13% |
| vs Similar (15) | 78.9 | 80.0 | 158.9 | -1.1 | 47% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 78.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.1 | 41.7 | 80.8 | -2.5 | 27% | 60% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 39.9 | 40.4 | 80.4 | -0.5 | 43% | 71% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 38.4 | 42.8 | 81.2 | -4.3 | 12% | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.8 | 39.0 | 77.8 | -0.2 | 20% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.4 | 35.6 | 75.0 | +3.8 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 36.3 | 40.4 | 76.8 | -4.1 | 25% | 50% |
| vs Similar (12) | 41.5 | 44.5 | 86.0 | -3.0 | 25% | 75% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 40.0 | 38.5 | 78.5 | +1.5 | 33% | 50% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 78.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.7 | 40.9 | 78.6 | -3.2 | 23% | 57% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 39.4 | 40.7 | 80.1 | -1.3 | 31% | 62% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 35.8 | 41.1 | 76.9 | -5.3 | 14% | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.8 | 42.3 | 81.1 | -3.5 | 20% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.8 | 43.0 | 82.8 | -3.2 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (15) | 37.5 | 41.1 | 78.6 | -3.5 | 20% | 53% |
| vs Similar (15) | 37.9 | 40.7 | 78.5 | -2.8 | 27% | 60% |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caserta +11 | 71.6% | 1.59 | 1.67 | 1.52 | - | - | - | +14.9pp | Won |
| Caserta +14.5 | 80.5% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +12.0pp | Won |
| Caserta +11.5 | 72.5% | 1.48 | 1.53 | 1.48 | 1.44 | - | - | +11.8pp | Won |
| Caserta +15.5 | 82.8% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +11.5pp | Won |
| Caserta +12.5 | 75.4% | 1.41 | 1.45 | 1.37 | - | - | - | +11.5pp | Won |
| Caserta +13.5 | 78.0% | 1.34 | 1.39 | 1.30 | - | - | - | +10.9pp | Won |
| Caserta over 68.5 | 76.5% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +9.5pp | Won |
| Caserta over 70.5 | 70.0% | 1.47 | 1.50 | 1.44 | - | - | - | +9.2pp | Lost |
| Caserta over 69.5 | 73.3% | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.37 | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| Caserta over 67.5 | 79.4% | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | - | - | - | +8.7pp | Won |
| Pistoia under 87.5 | 74.7% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +5.9pp | Won |
| Pistoia under 86.5 | 71.4% | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +5.8pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 95.1% | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | +3.0pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 36.2 | 18.3 | 51.2% | 36.6 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 22.7 | 6.7 | 34.5% | 20.1 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 21.9 | 16.1 | 71.0% | 16.1 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 32.9 | 18.6 | 51.2% | 37.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 27.7 | 9.2 | 34.5% | 27.6 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 19.3 | 13.5 | 71.0% | 13.5 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 13/02/17 | Pistoia v Caserta | 77-64 |
| 24/10/16 | Caserta v Pistoia | 74-65 |
| 06/03/16 | Caserta v Pistoia | 88-94 |
| 15/11/15 | Pistoia v Caserta | 93-84 OT |
| 15/02/15 | Pistoia v Caserta | 87-76 |
| 02/11/14 | Caserta v Pistoia | 59-63 |
| 11/05/14 | Pistoia v Caserta | 73-68 |
| 12/01/14 | Caserta v Pistoia | 80-74 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | A | Montecatini | 86-71 |
| 01/11/26 | H | Fortitudo Bologna | 64-66 |
| 25/10/26 | A | JuVi Cremona | 75-72 |
| 21/10/26 | A | Cento | 96-52 |
| 18/10/26 | H | Vigevano | 89-70 |
| 11/10/26 | A | Sebastiani Rieti | 70-78 |
| 04/10/26 | H | Basket Torino | 77-84 |
| 27/09/26 | A | Libertas Livorno | 62-63 |
| 13/05/26 | A | Ruvo Di Puglia | 80-78 |
| 10/05/26 | H | Ruvo Di Puglia | 81-88 OT |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | H | Avellino Basket | 76-82 |
| 01/11/26 | A | Sassari | 75-95 |
| 25/10/26 | H | Mestre | 77-70 |
| 18/10/26 | H | JuVi Cremona | 96-89 |
| 11/10/26 | A | Pesaro | 77-83 |
| 04/10/26 | H | Fortitudo Bologna | 81-83 |
| 27/09/26 | A | Sebastiani Rieti | 73-81 |
| 07/05/17 | H | Sassari | 77-70 |
| 30/04/17 | A | Avellino | 75-79 |
| 23/04/17 | H | Brindisi | 86-82 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWLW | 50% |
| Home | LWL | 33% |
| Away | LLWWW | 60% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 3 | 5 |
| Win % | 50% | 33% | 60% |
| Points / game | 77.4 | 76.7 | 77.8 |
| Allowed / game | 69.5 | 73.3 | 67.2 |
| Point differential | +7.9 | +3.3 | +10.6 |
| Avg total | 146.9 | 150.0 | 145.0 |
| Over 155.5 | 38% | 67% | 20% |
| Win by 10+ | 38% | 33% | 40% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 33% (3) | 0% (1) | 50% (2) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWLL | 29% |
| Home | LWWL | 50% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Win % | 29% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 79.3 | 82.5 | 75.0 |
| Allowed / game | 83.3 | 81.0 | 86.3 |
| Point differential | -4.0 | +1.5 | -11.3 |
| Avg total | 162.6 | 163.5 | 161.3 |
| Over 155.5 | 71% | 75% | 67% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertas Livorno | 8 | 8 | 0 | 100% | 81.6 | 68.2 | +13.4 |
| 2 | Avellino Basket | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 80.9 | 73.4 | +7.5 |
| 3 | Rimini | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 81.8 | 70.6 | +11.1 |
| 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 79.6 | 74.2 | +5.4 | |
| 5 | Sebastiani Rieti | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 74.1 | 73.4 | +0.8 |
| 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 72.4 | 71.4 | +1.0 | |
| 7 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 77.0 | 73.4 | +3.6 | |
| 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 80.2 | 77.9 | +2.4 | |
| 9 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 77.4 | 69.5 | +7.9 | |
| 10 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 82.5 | 78.5 | +4.0 | |
| 11 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 74.9 | 75.1 | -0.2 | |
| 12 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 74.5 | 75.9 | -1.4 | |
| 13 | Cividale | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 70.6 | 73.5 | -2.9 |
| 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 79.3 | 83.3 | -4.0 | |
| 15 | Ruvo Di Puglia | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 76.1 | 82.5 | -6.4 |
| 16 | Vigevano | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 76.5 | 84.4 | -7.9 |
| 17 | Cento | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 72.2 | 82.6 | -10.4 |
| 18 | JuVi Cremona | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12% | 74.9 | 78.0 | -3.1 |
| 19 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12% | 74.5 | 81.9 | -7.4 | |
| 20 | Montecatini | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12% | 68.9 | 82.6 | -13.8 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 15 | 20 | 22 | 78 | |
| 22 | 14 | 14 | 20 | 70 |
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