Sacramento State faces UC Davis in the NCAA on 14 November 2026, and the Pythia model names the Hornets as the clear favourite, rating them 81% to win largely because of their higher points per game, 83.5 versus 73.7, and a stronger defensive average, 78.5 allowed compared with 66.7, while UC Davis sits 167th in the league. Sacramento State has a 1-1 record after two games, scoring 83.5 points per game and conceding 78.5, and they are undefeated at home with a 1-0 record, 90.0 points scored and 74.0 allowed, though they lost their most recent outing to Santa Clara 77-83 away. UC Davis is 2-1 after three games, averaging 73.7 points and allowing 66.7, and they won two of their last five, including a 81-69 win over Incarnate Word at home. The teams have met five times, UC Davis winning three and Sacramento State two, with UC Davis winning the last encounter 77-73 on 14 November 2025. Pythia projects an 81-71 score, 151.2 total points, a 73% chance Sacramento State covers the -3.5 line, a 33% chance of the over at 158.0, and a 4% chance of overtime. The Hornets' home record and higher offensive output give them the edge.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sacramento State winLost
80.8%fair 1.24
Best odds1.64
Implied59.3%
Edge+21.5pp
UC Davis winWon
19.2%fair 5.20
Best odds2.50
Implied40.7%
Edge-21.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Sacramento State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Under 152.5
Over 152.5
46.3%
@ 1.37-22.8pp
Under 152.5
53.7%
@ 3.20+22.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.82
Over/Under 157.5 · main lineActual: Under 157.5
Over 157.5
34.6%
@ 1.81-19.2pp
Under 157.5
65.4%
@ 2.35+19.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.81
1xBet
1.80
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Be
1.65
Betano
1.60
Under
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.18
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Be
1.93
SBO
1.88
Over/Under 162.5Actual: Under 162.5
Over 162.5
24.3%
@ 2.03-22.6pp
Under 162.5
75.7%
@ 1.79+22.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.03
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
2.02
Marathon Be
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Be
1.78
Bet365
1.74
Betano
1.70
📊 3. Team Totals
Sacramento State total 77Actual: Sacramento State under 77
Over 77
64.4%
Under 77
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sacramento State total 81 · main lineActual: Sacramento State under 81
Over 81
48.1%
@ 1.85-1.9pp
Under 81
51.9%
@ 1.85+1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Sacramento State total 85Actual: Sacramento State under 85
Over 85
32.1%
Under 85
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UC Davis total 74Actual: UC Davis over 74
Over 74
36.2%
Under 74
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UC Davis total 78 · main lineActual: UC Davis under 78
Over 78
22.7%
@ 1.87-27.0pp
Under 78
77.3%
@ 1.85+27.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
UC Davis total 81.5Actual: UC Davis under 81.5
Over 81.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
Under 81.5
no forecast
@ 1.54
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
Under
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Sacramento State -6.5Actual: UC Davis +6.5
SACR -6.5
62.3%
@ 2.35+21.3pp
UC D +6.5
37.7%
@ 1.60-21.3pp
Best 5 market prices
SACR
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.18
UC D
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.54
Spread Sacramento State -3.5 · main lineActual: UC Davis +3.5
SACR -3.5
72.7%
@ 1.94+23.1pp
UC D +3.5
27.3%
@ 1.93-23.1pp
Best 5 market prices
SACR
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
UC D
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Sacramento State -0.5Actual: UC Davis +0.5
SACR -0.5
80.8%
UC D +0.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
SACR
No market prices yet.
UC D
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Sacramento StateUC Davis
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Sacramento State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: UC Davis win
SACR win
no forecast
@ 1.70
UC D win
no forecast
@ 2.18
2nd half Spread Sacramento State -1.5 · main lineActual: UC Davis +1.5
SACR -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
UC D +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Over/Under 81.5 · main lineActual: Under 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: UC Davis (regulation)
SACR
no forecast
@ 1.75
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
UC D
no forecast
@ 2.22
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
UC Davis under 76.5
71.9%
2.33
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.15
-
-
+32.3pp
Won
UC Davis under 79
80.1%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+30.4pp
Won
UC Davis under 78.5
78.0%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.97
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
+29.9pp
Won
UC Davis under 77.5
75.0%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.02
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
+29.8pp
Won
UC Davis under 79.5
80.6%
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.75
+29.6pp
Won
UC Davis under 78
77.3%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+27.0pp
Won
UC Davis under 80.5
83.1%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+26.7pp
Won
Sacramento State -4
71.7%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.04
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.92
-
+24.7pp
Lost
Under 160
71.2%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.04
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.89
SBO
1.88
-
+24.6pp
Won
Under 161
73.3%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.89
SBO
1.78
-
+23.9pp
Won
Under 160.5
71.8%
1.90
Pinnacle
1.98
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.92
Betano
1.91
BetVictor
1.88
+23.8pp
Won
UC Davis under 77
74.2%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Won
Under 162
75.3%
1.82
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+23.3pp
Won
Under 161.5
73.8%
1.85
Bet365
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.82
+23.2pp
Won
Sacramento State -3.5
72.7%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
+23.1pp
Lost
Under 163
77.2%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.68
-
-
+22.8pp
Won
Sacramento State +1
82.2%
1.56
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+22.8pp
Lost
Under 162.5
75.7%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.78
Bet365
1.74
Betano
1.70
-
+22.6pp
Won
Sacramento State -3
74.7%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.81
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
-
+22.6pp
Lost
Sacramento State (regulation)
78.6%
1.61
Marathon Bet
1.62
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Lost
Sacramento State -1
80.4%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Lost
Under 164
79.0%
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Won
Sacramento State -2
78.0%
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.68
-
-
+21.7pp
Lost
Sacramento State win
80.8%
1.57
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.62
Marathon Bet
1.59
SBO
1.59
Bet365
1.58
+21.5pp
Lost
Under 163.5
77.6%
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.62
-
-
+21.3pp
Won
Sacramento State -2.5
75.4%
1.76
BetVictor
1.80
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.76
Bet365
1.74
+21.2pp
Lost
Under 165
80.7%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+20.9pp
Won
Sacramento State -1.5
78.7%
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.72
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.60
-
+20.6pp
Lost
Under 164.5
79.3%
1.56
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
Sacramento State +2
84.6%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Lost
Under 165.5
81.0%
1.52
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
Under 166
82.3%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+19.8pp
Won
Under 167
83.8%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
Sacramento State +1.5
82.5%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Lost
Sacramento State +3
86.5%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Lost
Sacramento State +2.5
85.0%
1.41
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Lost
Under 166.5
82.6%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Won
Under 168
85.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Won
Sacramento State +3.5
86.7%
1.35
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
Sacramento State +4
88.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Lost
Under 167.5
84.0%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Won
Sacramento State +5
89.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Lost
Sacramento State +5.5
90.1%
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Lost
Under 168.5
85.4%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Won
Sacramento State +4.5
88.5%
1.30
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Lost
Under 169
86.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Under 169.5
86.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+16.3pp
Won
Sacramento State +6.5
91.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Lost
Sacramento State +7.5
92.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Lost
Under 171.5
89.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
Under 170.5
88.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
Sacramento State +12.5
96.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Lost
Sacramento State +11.5
96.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Lost
Under 176.5
93.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Under 175.5
92.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Sacramento State +17.5
98.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Lost
Sacramento State +16.5
98.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Lost
Sacramento State under 87.5
75.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Sacramento State +21.5
99.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Sacramento State under 89.5
81.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Sacramento State +22.5
99.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Sacramento State under 86.5
72.5%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Sacramento State under 92.5
88.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Sacramento State under 91.5
86.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.4%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Sacramento State under 97.5
95.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Sacramento State under 88.5
78.8%
1.27
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Sacramento State under 95.5
93.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Sacramento State under 90.5
84.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Sacramento State under 93.5
90.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Sacramento State under 98.5
96.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Sacramento State under 96.5
94.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Sacramento State under 94.5
91.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Sacramento State over 68.5
88.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Lost
Sacramento State over 70.5
84.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Lost
Sacramento State over 69.5
86.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Lost
UC Davis +23.5
88.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Sacramento State over 74.5
72.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Lost
Sacramento State over 71.5
81.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Lost
UC Davis +22.5
86.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Sacramento State over 72.5
78.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Lost
Sacramento State over 73.5
76.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Lost
UC Davis over 59.5
86.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
UC Davis +18.5
77.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Over 135.5
83.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.2pp
Lost
UC Davis over 60.5
84.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.7pp
Won
Over 136.5
81.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Lost
UC Davis over 61.5
81.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
UC Davis +17.5
75.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-10.9pp
Won
UC Davis over 62.5
78.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
UC Davis over 63.5
75.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-14.8pp
Won
Over 140.5
74.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-14.9pp
Lost
Over 141.5
72.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-17.0pp
Lost
UC Davis over 64.5
72.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-17.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.