PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
San Jose State faces Fresno State on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating San Jose State as the favourite at 81% versus 19% for Fresno State, a reflection of the former's 1-2 record and 83.0 points per game compared with Fresno State's 2-1 record and 82.7 points per game; San Jose State also averages 81.7 points allowed, lower than Fresno State's 84.0, and sits at league position 273 against Fresno State's 189. In all games San Jose State has gone 1-1 at home, scoring 85.0 and allowing 77.0, while Fresno State has gone 0-1 on the road, scoring 65.0 and allowing 81.0; the last five games for each side have been 2-3. Recent results show San Jose State lost to UC Riverside 75-80 at home, lost to UC Irvine 79-91 away, and beat UTSA 95-74 at home, whereas Fresno State beat Georgia State 95-92 at home, lost to UC San Diego 65-81 away, and beat Fresno Pacific 88-79 at home. Historically Fresno State leads the series 7-3 and won the last meeting 82-68 on 3 March 2026. Pythia projects a final score of 83-73, with a total of 156.1 points, and assigns a 4% chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 83.0 | 81.7 | 164.7 | +1.3 | 33% |
| Season at home (2) | 85.0 | 77.0 | 162.0 | +8.0 | 50% |
| Season away (1) | 79.0 | 91.0 | 170.0 | -12.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.4 | 83.1 | 161.5 | -4.7 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.0 | 82.4 | 164.4 | -0.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (24) | 70.2 | 81.9 | 152.2 | -11.7 | 8% |
| vs Similar ◀ (4) | 83.2 | 69.2 | 152.5 | +14.0 | 100% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 78.0 | 71.0 | 149.0 | +7.0 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 82.7 | 84.0 | 166.7 | -1.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 91.5 | 85.5 | 177.0 | +6.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 65.0 | 81.0 | 146.0 | -16.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 73.6 | 78.7 | 152.3 | -5.1 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.2 | 80.8 | 155.0 | -6.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (19) | 68.1 | 76.3 | 144.4 | -8.2 | 21% |
| vs Similar ◀ (4) | 85.5 | 86.2 | 171.8 | -0.8 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 78.5 | 62.8 | 141.3 | +15.7 | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.2 | 38.4 | 73.6 | -3.3 | 27% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 36.2 | 36.8 | 73.1 | -0.6 | 29% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 33.8 | 40.5 | 74.3 | -6.8 | 23% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.0 | 40.5 | 77.5 | -3.5 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.0 | 39.2 | 77.2 | -1.2 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (24) | 34.2 | 40.2 | 74.4 | -6.0 | 17% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (4) | 41.2 | 32.8 | 74.0 | +8.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | 34.5 | 29.0 | 63.5 | +5.5 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.4 | 34.6 | 69.0 | -0.2 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 35.4 | 33.2 | 68.6 | +2.1 | 56% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 33.3 | 36.2 | 69.5 | -2.9 | 43% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.8 | 34.7 | 71.5 | +2.1 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.4 | 35.8 | 71.2 | -0.4 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (19) | 30.8 | 33.1 | 63.9 | -2.3 | 37% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (4) | 42.0 | 43.2 | 85.2 | -1.2 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (6) | 39.7 | 33.2 | 72.8 | +6.5 | 83% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 04/03/26 | Fresno State v San Jose State | 82-68 |
| 07/01/26 | San Jose State v Fresno State | 55-70 |
| 08/03/25 | San Jose State v Fresno State | 92-68 |
| 05/02/25 | Fresno State v San Jose State | 91-94 OT |
| 07/02/24 | San Jose State v Fresno State | 57-69 |
| 17/01/24 | Fresno State v San Jose State | 85-82 |
| 08/02/23 | Fresno State v San Jose State | 70-62 |
| 11/01/23 | San Jose State v Fresno State | 74-64 |
| 10/03/22 | Fresno State v San Jose State | 69-67 OT |
| 02/02/22 | San Jose State v Fresno State | 43-73 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | H | UC Riverside | 75-80 |
| 08/11/26 | A | UC Irvine | 79-91 |
| 02/11/26 | H | UTSA Roadrunners | 95-74 |
| 13/03/26 | A | New Mexico | 77-93 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Boise State | 84-74 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Wyoming | 78-88 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Fresno State | 68-82 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Colorado State | 73-85 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Air Force | 86-80 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Boise State | 69-84 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Georgia State | 95-92 OT |
| 08/11/26 | A | UC San Diego | 65-81 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Fresno Pacific | 88-79 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Colorado State | 63-67 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Grand Canyon | 60-85 |
| 04/03/26 | H | San Jose State | 82-68 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Boise State | 53-69 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Colorado State | 70-74 |
| 22/02/26 | H | New Mexico | 78-80 |
| 18/02/26 | A | Wyoming | 82-92 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLL | 33% |
| Home | WL | 50% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 83.0 | 85.0 | 79.0 |
| Allowed / game | 81.7 | 77.0 | 91.0 |
| Point differential | +1.3 | +8.0 | -12.0 |
| Avg total | 164.7 | 162.0 | 170.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 82.7 | 91.5 | 65.0 |
| Allowed / game | 84.0 | 85.5 | 81.0 |
| Point differential | -1.3 | +6.0 | -16.0 |
| Avg total | 166.7 | 177.0 | 146.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boise State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 114.3 | 71.0 | +43.3 |
| 2 |  Utah State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.7 | 66.7 | +34.0 |
| 3 |  New Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 64.7 | +31.3 |
| 4 |  Grand Canyon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.3 | 77.0 | +23.3 |
| 5 |  San Diego State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 73.0 | +16.0 |
| 6 |  Colorado State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.7 | +12.3 |
| 7 |  UNLV | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 88.5 | 78.0 | +10.5 |
| 8 |  Air Force | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 93.5 | 83.8 | +9.8 |
| 9 |  Wyoming | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.7 | 62.0 | +21.7 |
| 10 |  Nevada | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.7 | 73.3 | +8.3 |
| 11 | Fresno State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.7 | 84.0 | -1.3 |
| 12 | San Jose State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.0 | 81.7 | +1.3 |
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