PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Shymkent vs Pavlodar Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 28 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 07:00
Final 109-52
35-8 27-10 36-18 11-16
Position#2
Record9-2
FormWWWLW
Points / game97.0
Allowed / game73.2
vs
Position#14
Record0-6
FormLLLLL
Points / game50.8
Allowed / game87.0
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Meetings · Shymkent v Pavlodar
30 Nov 2025
SHYM111
PAVL63
28 Nov 2025
SHYM109
PAVL52
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Shymkent winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pavlodar winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ShymkentKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormShymkent
Date
Competition
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
96-64
96
64
+32
no box
H23/10
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
102-55
102
55
+47
107avg 80
A24/10
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
93-66
93
66
+27
81avg 80
H25/10
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
68-80
68
80
-12
58avg 80
H26/10
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
112-68
112
68
+44
106avg 80
H11/11
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
108-73
108
73
+35
97avg 80
A12/11
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
112-79
112
79
+33
106avg 80
H13/11
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
102-72
102
72
+30
97avg 80
A14/11
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
73-88
73
88
-15
52avg 80
H15/11
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
97-90
97
90
+7
78avg 80
A27/11
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-17
28-12
24-21
16-14
34-15
21-14
29-11
18-15
27-22
22-20
27-11
17-13
21-19
15-27
15-13
17-21
26-17
31-18
32-22
23-11
32-15
28-12
20-23
28-23
36-24
28-22
26-14
22-19
29-17
29-16
29-23
15-16
21-28
17-15
11-23
24-22
24-20
27-27
27-26
19-17
169.8Avg total
96.3Scored
73.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)97.073.2170.2+23.882%
Season at home (6)92.374.2166.5+18.267%
Season away (5)102.672.0174.6+30.6100%
Last 10 (10)96.373.5169.8+22.880%
Last 5 (5)98.480.4178.8+18.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)71.076.3147.3-5.367%
vs Similar (5)72.079.6151.6-7.60%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)91.363.0154.4+28.3100%
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPavlodar
Date
Competition
Astana 2
#3
W
70-66 OT
70
66
+4
59avg 58
A11/03
National League
Astana 2
#3
L
68-82
68
82
-14
57avg 58
A12/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
78-104
78
104
-26
62avg 58
A04/04
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
91-105
91
105
-14
85avg 58
H05/04
National League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
L
55-75
55
75
-20
42avg 58
A14/11
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
L
38-87
38
87
-49
18avg 58
H15/11
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
L
49-68
49
68
-19
25avg 58
A16/11
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
L
43-86
43
86
-43
23avg 58
H17/11
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
60-80
60
80
-20
50avg 58
H18/11
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
60-126
60
126
-66
45avg 58
H27/11
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
10-18
25-16
15-8
13-21
15-20
15-25
21-22
17-15
20-31
15-26
20-26
23-21
26-33
31-20
11-23
23-29
12-25
9-15
10-16
24-19
11-28
10-22
8-14
9-23
6-19
14-16
9-21
20-12
14-27
11-26
12-16
6-17
23-16
18-18
13-21
6-25
9-36
21-22
16-40
14-28
149.1Avg total
61.2Scored
87.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)50.887.0137.8-36.20%
Season at home (4)50.294.8145.0-44.50%
Season away (2)52.071.5123.5-19.50%
Last 10 (10)61.287.9149.1-26.710%
Last 5 (5)50.089.4139.4-39.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)67.785.2153.0-17.513%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Shymkent) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-13-7+0+7+13Q1Q1: +8.4+8.4Q1: -10.7-10.7Q2Q2: +6.3+6.3Q2: -3.7-3.7Q3Q3: +5.3+5.3Q3: -7.2-7.2Q4Q4: +2.8+2.8Q4: -5.5-5.5
-13-7+0+7+13Q1Q1: +8.4+8.4Q1: -10.7-10.7Q2Q2: +6.3+6.3Q2: -3.7-3.7Q3Q3: +5.3+5.3Q3: -7.2-7.2Q4Q4: +2.8+2.8Q4: -5.5-5.5
ShymkentPavlodar
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ShymkentLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
56-29
56
29
+27
H23/10
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
55-29
55
29
+26
A24/10
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H25/10
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
36-46
36
46
-10
H26/10
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
57-35
57
35
+22
H11/11
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
60-27
60
27
+33
A12/11
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
64-46
64
46
+18
H13/11
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
58-33
58
33
+25
A14/11
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
38-43
38
43
-5
H15/11
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
51-47
51
47
+4
A27/11
Higher League
90.1Avg total
52.4Scored
37.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)48.933.582.4+15.479%-
Last 30 at home (15)48.534.382.7+14.280%-
Last 30 away (14)49.432.682.1+16.879%-
Last 10 (10)52.437.790.1+14.780%-
Last 5 (5)54.239.293.4+15.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)39.336.075.3+3.367%-
vs Similar (5)37.842.280.0-4.40%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)53.031.084.0+21.9100%-
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Astana 2
#3
W
35-34
35
34
+1
A11/03
National League
Astana 2
#3
L
30-45
30
45
-15
A12/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
35-57
35
57
-22
A04/04
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
W
57-53
57
53
+4
H05/04
National League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
L
21-40
21
40
-19
A14/11
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
L
21-50
21
50
-29
H15/11
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
L
20-35
20
35
-15
A16/11
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
L
25-53
25
53
-28
H17/11
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H18/11
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
30-58
30
58
-28
H27/11
Higher League
77.4Avg total
31.5Scored
45.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.243.777.0-10.520%-
Last 30 at home (13)32.243.876.0-11.531%-
Last 30 away (17)34.043.777.7-9.712%-
Last 10 (10)31.545.977.4-14.430%-
Last 5 (5)27.446.073.4-18.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)33.243.777.0-10.520%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Shymkent) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Shymkent wins
0
Pavlodar wins
DateGameScore
13/03/23Pavlodar v Shymkent82-88
15/02/23Pavlodar v Shymkent55-81
25/12/22Pavlodar v Shymkent81-98
Shymkentlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/11/25AKaraganda97-90
15/11/25HTuran73-88
14/11/25AChelSU Kostanay102-72
13/11/25HTobol Kostanay 2112-79
12/11/25AChelSU Kostanay108-73
11/11/25HTobol Kostanay 2112-68
26/10/25HTuran68-80
25/10/25HBC Almaty 293-66
24/10/25ACHAMP1ON102-55
23/10/25HBC Almaty 296-64
Pavlodarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/11/25HTuran60-126
18/11/25HKaraganda60-80
17/11/25HBars Petropavlovsk43-86
16/11/25ATigers-KazATU49-68
15/11/25HBars Petropavlovsk38-87
14/11/25ATigers-KazATU55-75
05/04/25HTobol Kostanay91-105
04/04/25ATobol Kostanay78-104
12/03/25AAstana 268-82
11/03/25AAstana 270-66 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Shymkent
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW82%
HomeWLWWL67%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %82%67%100%
Points / game97.092.3102.6
Allowed / game73.274.272.0
Point differential+23.8+18.2+30.6
Avg total170.2166.5174.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+73%67%80%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pavlodar
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLLL0%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game50.850.252.0
Allowed / game87.094.871.5
Point differential-36.2-44.5-19.5
Avg total137.8145.0123.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bars Petropavlovsk11110100%90.554.4+36.1
2 Turan12120100%90.361.3+29.0
3 Shymkent119282%97.073.2+23.8
4 Aktobe54180%87.866.4+21.4
5 Atyrau 21410471%75.171.3+3.9
6 Arlans74357%75.071.6+3.4
7 ChelSU Kostanay148657%76.478.7-2.3
8 Tigers-KazATU105550%70.677.0-6.4
9 BC Almaty 2104640%71.373.7-2.4
10 CHAMP1ON103730%68.175.9-7.8
11 Karaganda72529%72.781.4-8.7
12 Tobol Kostanay 21421214%70.184.9-14.8
13 AiRom71614%66.483.9-17.4
14 Kaspiy Aktau 2141137%55.282.9-27.6
15 Pavlodar6060%50.887.0-36.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Shymkent35273611109
Pavlodar810181652
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.