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SMU Mustangs vs Tarleton Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 04 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 96-76
48-38 48-38
Position#129
Record-
FormLWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
SMU Mustangs 🏆
USA
vs
Tarleton
USA
Position#255
Record-
FormLWLLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · SMU Mustangs v Tarleton
03 Nov 2025
SMU 96
TARL76
04 Nov 2024
SMU 96
TARL62
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SMU Mustangs winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Tarleton winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#241
W
97-73
97
73
+24
A20/02
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
69-79
69
79
-10
H22/02
NCAA
California
#268
W
81-77
81
77
+4
A27/02
NCAA
Stanford
#127
L
68-73
68
73
-5
A01/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
77-75
77
75
+2
H05/03
NCAA
Florida State
#177
L
69-76
69
76
-7
A08/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
73-53
73
53
+20
H13/03
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
54-57
54
57
-3
A14/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#24
W
73-63
73
63
+10
H20/03
NIT
Oklahoma State
#7
L
83-85
83
85
-2
H23/03
NIT
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
50-25
0-0
47-48
0-0
32-36
0-0
37-43
0-0
42-29
0-0
39-48
0-0
39-45
0-0
29-28
0-0
36-44
0-0
41-31
0-0
32-33
0-0
37-43
0-0
31-28
0-0
42-25
0-0
27-28
0-0
27-29
0-0
33-32
0-0
40-31
0-0
41-40
0-0
42-45
145.5Avg total
74.4Scored
71.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)74.471.1145.5+3.350%
Last 5 (5)70.466.8137.2+3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)62.089.0151.0-27.00%
vs Similar (7)72.678.3150.9-5.714%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)80.768.7149.4+12.086%
This opponent (Tarleton) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TarletonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Utah
#297
W
75-58
75
58
+17
H02/02
NCAA
Seattle
#252
L
54-91
54
91
-37
A07/02
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#32
L
56-81
56
81
-25
A08/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#29
L
60-64
60
64
-4
H14/02
NCAA
Seattle
#252
W
67-64
67
64
+3
H16/02
NCAA
UT Arlington
#277
L
57-67
57
67
-10
A23/02
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#208
W
67-52
67
52
+15
H28/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#179
L
48-68
48
68
-20
A07/03
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#32
L
66-71
66
71
-5
H09/03
NCAA
California Baptist
#179
L
51-55
51
55
-4
A14/03
NCAA
1H
2H
37-23
38-35
29-48
25-43
36-39
20-42
30-37
30-27
32-32
35-32
29-23
28-44
37-25
30-27
28-36
20-32
36-35
30-36
21-30
30-25
127.2Avg total
60.1Scored
67.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)60.167.1127.2-7.030%
Last 5 (5)57.862.6120.4-4.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)58.570.9129.3-12.424%
vs Similar (6)65.860.3126.2+5.567%
vs Weaker (2)95.066.5161.5+28.5100%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +2.3+2.31st half: -1.3-1.32nd half2nd half: +1.0+1.02nd half: -5.7-5.7
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +2.3+2.31st half: -1.3-1.32nd half2nd half: +1.0+1.02nd half: -5.7-5.7
SMU MustangsTarleton
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#241
W
50-25
50
25
+25
A20/02
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
32-36
32
36
-4
H22/02
NCAA
California
#268
W
42-29
42
29
+13
A27/02
NCAA
Stanford
#127
L
39-45
39
45
-6
A01/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
L
36-44
36
44
-8
H05/03
NCAA
Florida State
#177
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A08/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
31-28
31
28
+3
H13/03
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
27-28
27
28
-1
A14/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#24
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H20/03
NIT
Oklahoma State
#7
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H23/03
NIT
70.3Avg total
36.3Scored
34.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.433.170.5+4.363%-
Last 30 at home (17)37.234.171.2+3.171%-
Last 30 away (13)37.631.869.5+5.854%-
Last 10 (10)36.334.070.3+2.350%-
Last 5 (5)32.832.265.0+0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)32.041.073.0-9.00%-
vs Similar (7)33.136.169.3-3.043%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)39.231.871.0+7.571%-
This opponent (Tarleton) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TarletonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Utah
#297
W
37-23
37
23
+14
H02/02
NCAA
Seattle
#252
L
29-48
29
48
-19
A07/02
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#32
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A08/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#29
L
30-37
30
37
-7
H14/02
NCAA
Seattle
#252
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H16/02
NCAA
UT Arlington
#277
W
29-23
29
23
+6
A23/02
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#208
W
37-25
37
25
+12
H28/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#179
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A07/03
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#32
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H09/03
NCAA
California Baptist
#179
L
21-30
21
30
-9
A14/03
NCAA
64.3Avg total
31.5Scored
32.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.632.464.0-0.850%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.130.366.4+5.871%-
Last 30 away (16)27.734.362.0-6.631%-
Last 10 (10)31.532.864.3-1.340%-
Last 5 (5)30.229.860.0+0.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)28.634.963.5-6.329%-
vs Similar (6)32.824.757.5+8.2100%-
vs Weaker (2)53.029.082.0+24.0100%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
SMU Mustangs wins
0
Tarleton wins
DateGameScore
05/11/24SMU Mustangs v Tarleton96-62
SMU Mustangslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/03/25HOklahoma State83-85
20/03/25HNorthern Iowa73-63
14/03/25AClemson54-57
13/03/25HSyracuse73-53
08/03/25AFlorida State69-76
05/03/25HSyracuse77-75
01/03/25AStanford68-73
27/02/25ACalifornia81-77
22/02/25HClemson69-79
20/02/25ANotre Dame97-73
Tarletonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/03/25ACalifornia Baptist51-55
09/03/25HUtah Valley State66-71
07/03/25ACalifornia Baptist48-68
28/02/25HAbilene Christian67-52
23/02/25AUT Arlington57-67
16/02/25HSeattle67-64
14/02/25HGrand Canyon60-64
08/02/25AUtah Valley State56-81
07/02/25ASeattle54-91
02/02/25HSouthern Utah75-58

📊 11. Overall Statistics

SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Tarleton
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Clemson110100%88.038.0+50.0
2 NC State110100%114.066.0+48.0
3 North Carolina110100%94.054.0+40.0
4 Syracuse110100%85.047.0+38.0
5 Virginia110100%87.053.0+34.0
6 Virginia Tech110100%98.067.0+31.0
7 Notre Dame110100%89.067.0+22.0
8 Pittsburgh110100%74.059.0+15.0
9 Georgia Tech110100%56.052.0+4.0
10 Boston College1010%78.083.0-5.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Western Athletic conference: no games played yet this season.

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
SMU Mustangs484896
Tarleton383876
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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